With the Gators riding a three-game winning streak they have to be happy with how they’re playing, but it is important to note that the wins came against the teams currently 8th, 9th, and 14th in the SEC. Florida (14-6, 4-3 SEC) will hope to carry that momentum forward on January 31st when they start one of their most challenging stretches of the season against the Kentucky Wildcats (15-4, 5-2). Kentucky has been a trendy Final Four pick of recent weeks and the Gators will hope to get that marquee win before having to take on Texas A&M on the road followed by Auburn at home.
This will be the second meeting between the Gators and Wildcats with Kentucky getting first blood, clipping Florida 87-85 in a game that easily could have gone the way of the Gators. Florida was well in control of the game with three minutes remaining but went ice cold offensively, allowing the hot-shooting Wildcats to surge back into the game and hold on to win. That game left a bitter taste in the mouth of the Gators and they’ll be searching for revenge this time on the road at Rupp.
This will be a very different looking Kentucky team than when Florida last saw them as 7’2” Croatian center Zvonimir Ivisic was finally granted eligibility after a lengthy review process. His collegiate debut was as highly anticipated as any player in the country and, well–he didn’t disappoint. Going against Georgia Ivisic came off the bench and had 12 points in a hurry, all of which came on three-pointers. He also wowed with 2 highlight reel assists, including a behind the back laser in transition that found a wide open shooter in the corner. Since that performance Ivisic has cooled down and only played 3 minutes in Kentucky’s most recent game, showing that there still is some growing to do as he learns the collegiate game. While he might not be a completely finished product his ability to handle, shoot, and pass was well-established in the heralded Adriatic League a year ago and he has already shown he can dominate at the SEC level and it’s only a matter of time before he’s given the keys to play a huge role for the Wildcats’ offense. So far this season Kentucky hasn’t gotten much from their centers, particularly on the offensive end, and were still playing excellent basketball. Now that they have one of the most talented freshmen in the country activated at the position, you’re seeing why many media members think they have Final Four upside.
Since the Gators and Wildcats played in Gainesville things haven’t gone particularly well for Kentucky, even with the addition of Ivisic. They dropped games to South Carolina and Texas A&M, and they barely got by an Arkansas team that has been getting blown out by everyone in the league, winning only 63-57.
Even while taking losses, the metrics are fond of Kentucky. They currently rank 19th in KenPom despite some of the poor performances lately and they come in at 22nd in the NET. Of course, most people think they are going to be a much better team moving forward now that they have Ivisic, but still the metrics are solid with how they’ve played without him.
The metrics also paint a more positive picture than Kentucky’s resume which doesn’t have a whole lot there. Currently they are 2-3 in quadrant-1, with one of those wins coming over Florida. Two quadrant-1 wins isn’t a ton for a team that has Final Four aspirations, and they also have a quadrant-3 loss that came to UNC Wilmington. Right now Kentucky might have all the pieces, but their resume isn’t as good as their reputation and the metrics say and they’ll be looking to add some substance with a win over Florida.
Of course, Florida is also in need of some substantive wins in an even worse way than Kentucky. The Gators are 0-6 in quadrant-1, and that number is going to look awfully ugly in the eyes of the NCAA Tournament committee. They’ve had plenty of chances and many of these quad-1 opportunities weren’t against marquee opponents and the fact they haven’t been able to close one out is not going to be looked at positively. Luckily, the Gators have several quad-1 opportunities remaining and that starts with this game against Kentucky. With the Wildcats currently 22nd in the NET and this being a road game it’s a clear quad-1 opportunity for the Gators with no real chance of it falling out of that quadrant, and a win over Kentucky is always going to carry some clout as well.
In the first meeting of the season Florida’s guards were tremendous with Walter Clayton and Zyon Pullin having 23 points a piece. The issue for the Gators was Tyrese Samuel having one of his quietest games of the season with 3 points while Micah Handlogten added 6. Given that the frontcourt is considered the weakest point in Kentucky’s roster the Gators need to assert themselves in that area, and it almost seemed like they were lucky to be in a close game with Kentucky the first time around without their post players playing particularly well. Well, I should say–Florida’s starting post players. Alex Condon was actually Florida’s best frontcourt option with 10 points and 4 rebounds, and with him continually getting better and better with each game, look for him to make an impact. It is notable that after a few quiet games Micah Handlogten just had a monster 23 point, 17 rebound game against Georgia, and the Gators will hope to bottle up some of that energy for the Kentucky matchup.
For the Gators, the biggest key to this game will be tightening up defensively. Florida has been steadily dipping in their defensive production as the season wears on and after giving up 1.17 points per possession to a Georgia team that has some poor offensive numbers across the board the Gators dipped to 98th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Even if you’re not a fan of advanced analytics and glossed over the start of this paragraph–you’ll know from watching the Gators that the defense has been porous. Whether it’s quick guards off the bounce or physical bigs that can overwhelm the slimmer frontcourt the Gators have several holes in their defense currently and a number of teams have found ways to exploit it. Luckily for Florida there aren’t any physically overwhelming bigs in Kentucky’s frontcourt but there are a ton of talented guards off the dribble and they’ll need to find a way to slow those players down and keep them from stringing together scores that will get Rupp Arena electrified.
This is a massive game for the Gators as they look to finally get a resume win on the books. Opportunities to get these kinds of wins are starting to fade away so this would be a huge chance for Florida to start to put together a case for an NCAA Tournament berth.
Florida and Kentucky tip off at 8 PM ET on January 31st and it will be televised on ESPN.