Holding on the the #2 ranking in the AP Poll and likely in a position for a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament the Gators will be looking to maintain their momentum and take care of business on the road at Georgia for the second time this season.
Florida currently sits at 24-3 on the season and 11-3 in the SEC where they are second, currently tied in record with Alabama but technically holding on the tiebreak–at least for the time being. The Gators and Crimson Tide will face on March 5th which looks like it’ll be a huge game from a standings standpoint, but as of right now the Gators hold second place in the conference. Auburn is still two games ahead at 13-1 and while it’s looking unlikely that the Gators could catch up it’s still a possibility with Auburn’s remaining opponents being Ole Miss, Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Alabama–all teams that are 22nd or higher in KenPom and all games they could potentially lose if the don’t bring their A-game.
According to modeling platform Playoff Status the Gators have a 6% chance at winning the SEC regular season so it certainly would take a lot of things going right, but it’s not a certainty Auburn runs away with first.
Furthering the Playoff Status numbers the Gators have a 43% chance of finishing second and a 37% chance at finishing third–so they’ll certainly need to handle a team like Georgia who sits in the basement of the SEC.
Currently the Bulldogs are on a four-game losing streak and have lost 9 of their last 11 which has dropped them to 16-11 on the season and 4-10 in the SEC which is good for 13th in the conference. Despite the fact that SEC play hasn’t been kind to the Bulldogs the resume metrics still find them to be respectable (45th in KenPom, 41st in the NET) which has put bracketologists in a complete bind. Some look at the record and see that they are 2-11 in quad-1 games and say that they have repeatedly shown they are outclassed against similar competition. However, some bracketologists look at the wins over St. John’s and Kentucky, alongside the fact that they have no bad losses and suggest they should sneak into the NCAA Tournament as a play-in team. Bracket Matrix, a composite of the top bracketologists, currently has the Bulldogs as the second team out of the field which shows just how close they are despite their all out losing skid in the SEC. If the thought of a team currently 4-10 in the SEC making the NCAA Tournament disgusts you–you are not alone. The current system of evaluating teams based on metrics and the NET simply did not account for a league as strong as the SEC where upwards of 12 teams could make the Tournament and right now it’s clear that a lot of people don’t know what to do with the Georgia resume. Needlessly to say, Georgia is absolutely desperate for a win against a team like Florida that would do gigantic amounts of heavy lifting for the Gators so they’ll need to be ready to face a team that has a lot more to gain than Florida has to lose.
The Gators and Bulldogs last played January 25th, and it was an all out assault by Florida. Georgia was able to knock down the first three of the game to make it 3-0 and that was the only moment they ever had the lead. Florida surged to a 51-26 lead at halftime and cruised to a 89-59 win that was never in doubt. Most notably for the Gators was the fact that they had five scorers in double digits and really spread the ball around, something that has continued for the four weeks since where the Gators have played an even more unselfish brand of basketball that has been loose, fun, and efficient.
Georgia’s leading scorer was guard Blue Cain who led the Bulldogs with just 10 points, and it wasn’t due to the Gators struggling to slow him down or anything like that. Cain is one of, if not the only Bulldog who is capable of making tough, contested shots one on one and when the Bulldogs’ offense stalled he was often the one forced to try and get a shot on the rim.
Since that meeting the biggest issue for Georgia has been their offense which has never been a strength but was at least not handcuffing them early in the season but has since become an anchor that weighed down any opportunity at them competing for the top half of the SEC. The offensive issues have particularly struck them in the second halves of games, as they actually have had some second frame leads due to their defense–only to see long droughts offensively allow opponents back into games.
One player that has increased his offensive efficiency as of late has been sophomore Silas Demary who has started to make better reads as a driver resulting in some strong scoring outings including 23 points at Mississippi State and 19 against Texas A&M. He was extremely quiet against the Gators in the first meeting of the season but he has come on as of late trying to will some points out of Georgia’s backcourt and he’ll be a player to watch out for.
Georgia’s best player all season long has been freshman Asa Newell who has truly been excellent, though his efforts have gone largely unnoticed nationally due to Georgia’s lack of positive results. The 6’11” former Florida target is averaging 15.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks to have his impact all over the game and even despite the losing streak he has continued to play hard and is putting up excellent production on both sides of the floor. Florida’s ability to slow him down was one of the biggest reasons Georgia couldn’t get anything going in the earlier matchup this season but with another month of experience where he is at the top of every opponent’s scouting report he’ll be a bit more prepared for the defensive pressure from the Gators and Florida will need to be prepared for his versatile offensive game.
With Florida rattling off so many wins this season it would be easy for them to take some games off or lose focus but that hasn’t been the case so far and they’ll need to keep that up against a Georgia team that will be desperate to add a marquee win to their resume. The Bulldogs haven’t been playing good basketball as of late but will put their everything into this game and Florida will need to be ready to take that punch.
Florida and Georgia will tip off Tuesday, February 25th at 7 PM ET and it will be televised on SEC Network.