A rivalry that was starting to look awfully tilted in the opposite direction is starting to swing back in Florida’s favor and the Gators (2-1) will look to keep that momentum going when they take on the Florida State Seminoles (2-0).
From 2015 to 2021 the Seminoles had a chokehold over the Gators winning 7 consecutive games, many of which were uncompetitive. In 2021 Florida was finally able to punch back winning 71-55 led by Colin Castleton and Anthony Duruji chipping in 15 points a piece, and last year the Gators won 76-67 to get their second win in a row. Given the importance of recruiting in the state of Florida this has been an important fixture of the Florida and Florida State non-conference schedule and the Gators will hope to continue to win back ground and bounce back from 7 years of Seminole dominance.
When Florida State was regularly dusting the Gators there was a clear script. The Seminoles were loaded with extreme length, toughness, and athleticism at every position, and then they mixed in enough high pedigree recruits to bring scoring punch. The last couple of years have looked different with head coach Leonard Miller not getting the same level of freak athlete or five-star recruit and it has allowed the Gators to knock them off twice.
From 2017-2021, Florida State’s KenPom finishes were 26th, 27th, 14th, 15th, and 15th, making them as consistent a high level program as there was in basketball during that time. The last two seasons? KenPom finishes of 105th and 205th.
Last season can be blamed largely on a devastating streak of injuries but still–a 205th finish in the country just two seasons removed from three consecutive years of top-15 finishes seems unthinkable. While this team looks much improved from last year, they still don’t appear to be the calibre of what you’d expect from Coach Hamilton’s teams and the Gators will need to take advantage.
Florida State gave themselves a somewhat easy schedule to start the season taking on Kennesaw State and Central Michigan. In both games they came away with identical 94-67 victories, controlling from the tip until the final buzzer. Florida could have an advantage from being more up to game speed having already taken on Virginia, whereas Florida State hasn’t yet played a high-major opponent.
What jumps out about this Florida State team as opposed to Seminole teams of the last decade is how much shooting they have. Even while being dominant in the ACC (and over the Gators) the Seminoles struggled to shoot and opted to not take that many jumpers, often finishing near the bottom of the country in attempts. When they did let those shots fly they didn’t fall at a very good percentage, and much of the value in those attempts came from the elite offensive rebounding the Seminoles had from their neverending army of lengthy athletes.
This year is much different. Florida State has been launching threes in their first two games ranking 63rd in the country in three-point attempts. Plus, not only are they taking threes–they’re making them. At 37.7% from three so far this season they’re 77th in the country in efficiency, something that makes them look a whole lot different than Seminole teams of the past.
Returning wing Darin Green leads the three-point attack having taken 16 attempts so far this season and hitting 7 of them (44%). Green shot 36% from three last season and 39% the year prior at UCF, all while taking over 7 per game, so he has proven to be an elite shooter given the heavy volume. Green likes to catch defenders sleeping by relocating when his teammates drive and the Gators will have to be aware of him off the ball as he tries to get loose. At 17 points per game so far Green has been the clear offensive leader and taking away some of his three-point attempts would be a great start at slowing him down.
One of the more interesting players on the roster is Jamir Watkins, a junior who transferred from VCU. At 6’7” with long arms he looks like a forward and operates like one on the defensive end, but where he really shines is as a playmaker. He had 6 assists to open the season against Kennesaw State and then turned on scoring mode against Central Michigan pouring in 19 points. Perhaps most interesting is the fact that he has beaten out Cam’Ron Fletcher, a former top recruit, for a starting spot on the wing. Watkins largely came off the bench at VCU but has clearly found his fit at Florida State playing a heightened role as a playmaker. Given his playmaking abilities at 6’7” he’s a matchup issue and it will be interesting to see who Coach Golden puts as his primary defender.
So far this season Florida has been largely winning the games they have due to relentless offensive rebounding. In the past it was Florida State who dominated the rebounding category, so will they be able to compete with the Gators on the glass this season? The Seminoles sport really good length in the frontcourt, though they don’t have a lot of bulk. Baba Miller is a talented prospect at 6’11”, though he only comes in at 205 pounds. Cam Corhen (6’10”, 225), De’Ante Green (6’9”, 210) and Taylor Bol Bowen (6’10”, 195) round out a quality frontcourt that insures the Seminoles always have two players on the floor with great length–but not bring a lot of physicality. So far this season Florida’s big men have struggled with stronger centers, but given that the Seminoles don’t really have a player in that archetype, things could get interesting. The Seminoles have put up rather mediocre rebounding numbers in two games versus mid-major opponents, so you’d have to think the rebounding battle should favor the Gators.
Florida will be ecstatic to get guard Zyon Pullin for his first game of the season following a suspension from the NCAA. Half court offense has been an issue for the Gators and that’s where Pullin shines, and he could completely change the look of a Florida team who has only been able to score at a high level on the offensive glass and in transition.
Half court offense is going to be the key to the game for Florida. There is a chance they dominate the offensive glass in the same way they have against every opponent so far this season, but there is also a chance Florida State’s length keeps that at bay and if so–the team that executes better in the half court could be victorious.
Florida and Florida State tip off on Friday, November 17th at 7 PM ET and the game will be televised on SEC Network.