For the last several seasons the Florida State non-conference game has been a measuring stick for how Florida basketball compares to the top teams in the country. For seven straight years from 2014 to 2020, that meant the Gators having a disappointing omen with treacherous losses to the Seminoles, with most of those losses being microcosms for the issues the Gators would face later in the season.
Last season the Gators exorcised their demons, going on the road to Tallahassee and blowing out the the Seminoles 71-55. At the time Florida State was thought to be one of the top teams in the ACC and a high seed in the NCAA Tournament, but it was actually the Gators who got to play the role of exposing a team for their biggest flaws. Florida State ended the season nowhere near the NCAA Tournament at 17-14, finishing 8th in the ACC following by a thrashing by Syracuse in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to end their season.
At the time we thought the Seminoles were an excellent basketball team and that the Gators getting a double-digit win meant they were destined for a stellar season, but unfortunately neither of those things were true.
Fast forward to this season’s iteration of the rivalry, set to to take place on Friday, February 18th.
Florida is coming off a disappointing loss to Florida Atlantic who had a convincing double-digit lead late in the second half, enough to thwart the Gators’ inspired comeback attempt. You might have thought the Gators had some awfully unlucky breaks, but believe me–nothing comes close to as bad as the luck Florida State has had.
The Seminoles enter the rivalry game with Florida sitting at 0-3 on the season.
Their losses?
Stetson, UCF, and Troy.
The KenPom rankings for these teams?
270th, 76th, and 182nd.
Well, were they close games at least?
Stetson won 83-74, UCF won 68-54, and Troy won 79-72.
Oof.
Your first instinct might be to laugh at what was three bad resume losses, and hey, that’s fair when dealing with a rival–but this awful stretch requires some serious context.
Florida State is currently down to seven, yes, seven, scholarship players.
Here is a rundown of what they’ve been dealing with:
To begin, a future NBA big man in Baba Miller is currently suspended by the NCAA. Nothing nefarious from the FSU side–back when Miller was an uncommitted high school student he accepted some money to help pay for his travel from his native Spain to America to attend a camp. When his family was told that was against the NCAA’s rules they gave the money back immediately, but that wasn’t enough for the NCAA who hit him with a 15-game suspension.
Then, you’ve got the injuries.
Naheem McLeod is out with an ankle injury. He should be reevaluated before the game with Florida, but the lean seems to be that he won’t be available.
Jaylan Gainey is out with an ACL injury.
De’Ante Green is also out with an ACL injury.
For Jeremiah Bembry, it’s a back injury.
Lastly, for Chandler Jackson it’s a thumb injury.
Add it all together and you have what is some of the worst luck we have seen for a college basketball team in some time, and the season is quickly spiraling away from the Seminoles.
While they technically have seven available scholarship players, only six have really been trusted by head coach Leonard Hamilton to play, so you can essentially make it seven unavailable players for the Seminoles and six that are really available against the Gators (barring someone being unexpectedly cleared to play). The biggest position group hit by the all the injuries is the big man spot, as the Seminoles only really have one true post player remaining in freshman Cameron Corhen. Corhen is 6’10” and 225 pounds and was an excellent high school recruit, but he is a bit out of his element in a position where he is a 34 and 35 minute per game player which was the case in the last two games. The Seminoles simply have no options other than to play him this ridiculous minute load and it’s a matchup that could be extremely favorable to the Gators. Colin Castleton is on an absolute heater and has been dominant offensive and he will get to play head to head with a freshman for what is likely 35 minutes. That is, unless Castleton fouls him out, meaning Castleton will likely have to be guarded by a 6’6” wing.
While horrible luck with injuries has befallen the Seminoles, it is important to remember that they still have some quality players that remain. Wings Matthew Cleveland and Caleb Mills remain on NBA radars as two-way wings, and UCF transfer Darin Green has averaged 16 points per game this season and looked good doing so. Cam’Ron Fletcher, a former Kentucky Wildcat out of high school, has big time athleticism at 6’7” and can overwhelm smaller perimeter players.
The players that Florida State are left with are quality athletes and productive players, but this is simply a game that the Gators need to find a way to win. When Troy, Stetson, and UCF have had their way with a team, the Gators simply can’t afford to find a way to lose to them. Florida needs to get the bad taste out of their mouth after losing to Florida Atlantic and a great way to do that is by beating a rival–even if they’re incredibly down.
After taking the three losses to start their season Florida State is now ranked 105th in KenPom, well into mid-major range and 20 spots below what Florida Atlantic was before coming into Gainesville to get a win. Yes, this is a rivalry game the Gators would love to win for morale and recruiting momentum, but it’s also a bad loss they need to avoid as this could end up being a quadrant-3 game.
This isn’t a regular rivalry matchup between the Gators and Seminoles, but it’s an intriguing one nonetheless.