After a brief recess for the holiday season the Gators (7-5) are back in action on December 28 taking on the Auburn Tigers (10-2). This will be the opening game of SEC play, giving the Gators a bit of a fresh slate after a non-conference performance that was rather disappointing.
Despite the issues early in the season the Gators will have all kinds of opportunities to bolster their resume and put together an NCAA Tournament resume and that starts on the road at Auburn, a team whose quality is still a bit of a mystery. Head coach Bruce Pearl is notorious for scheduling light non-conference schedules which often allows them to put up an excellent record, as we see once again with their current 10-2 record, but it makes it a bit difficult to analyze just how good of a club they are entering SEC play.
Auburn’s best win is currently over Northwestern, who is 45th in KenPom, on a neutral floor. They also have wins over Bradley and St. Louis who are quality programs, but aren’t the kind of marquee victories that command attention. Their two losses are to USC and Memphis, with Memphis being the best team the Tigers have faced (26th in KenPom).
On the contrary the Gators have played the 2nd, 21st, 28th, 31st, and 41st ranked teams in KenPom. Florida and Auburn are two teams that need a quality win, though Florida’s resume is in need of it a lot more than Auburn’s who is still looked upon with relative positivity despite the light workload.
Because of Auburn’s quality of competition, different ranking systems see them in a lot of different ways. They’re 20th in the AP Poll, a ranking that some media members have loudly disagreed with. In KenPom, the analytic tool that many people think is the best way to evaluate teams, the Tigers are 16th. In the NET rankings, the NCAA’s official sorting tool, the Tigers are 28th.
However you want to see them, this is somewhere between a good and very good basketball team, and they’ve got a notoriously raucous home court atmosphere that the Gators may have to contend with. Right after the holiday break the atmosphere might not be what things normally are in Neville Arena which could be a huge benefit to the road Gators.
This game will also be a reunion between Todd Golden and Bruce Pearl. Golden worked at Auburn under Pearl before heading to the west coast and Golden credits that experience with a lot of his growth in the college basketball system.
As has been the case in recent years Auburn has been a tenacious defensive team who is extremely difficult to play against. They’re currently 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and you have to wonder if that number would be even higher if they were playing better quality competition. Their defensive toughness and execution definitely passes the eye test as they fly around the floor tipping away passes and swallowing up drives.
Aggression is the key word when it comes to the Tiger defense as they will extend themselves on the perimeter to make passes difficult. Taking away three-point attempts is a focus and they’ll gamble with leaving their feet to run shooters off the line and funnel them into the paint. That’s made possible by their long, athletic frontcourt who have been protecting the rim at a high level. Right now the Tigers are 24th in the country in three-point attempt defense and 4th in the country in block percentage so their defensive philosophy has worked just about perfectly.
One of those shot blockers is Johni Broome who will be a familiar name to Florida fans as he was down to Auburn and Florida in his transfer decision after dominating his competition at Morehead State. Broome is putting up 12 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game so far this season making his presence felt on both ends of the floor. While his scoring, primarily on post ups, has been impressive–it’s his work on the glass and his rim protection that has been most impactful. Currently 10th in the country in block rate, Broome is always in the lane to stop a dribble drive if one of Auburn’s perimeter players runs a shooter off the line and that ability allows Bruce Pearl to utilize the pressure far from the hoop that he desires.
Dylan Cardwell, a 6’9”, 250 pound behemoth backup center is also a tremendous shot blocker and interior presence, while senior Jaylin Williams rounds out what is a very good core frontcourt rotation. Johni Broome is finesse and fluidity, Cardwell is physicality and strength, and Williams is savvy and intelligence, and whatever mix that Auburn rolls out of these three players makes for a frontcourt that is the strength of the Tigers team. Offensively they are all capable and efficient but defensively they really shine and the Gators will have to be aware of their rotation and shot blocking abilities when crafting their attack plan.
Auburn returns the backcourt of Wendell Green, KD Johnson, and Zep Jasper who started last season strong before having some fairly well-publicised struggles to end the season. Notably erratic, this backcourt had one of their poor stretches and the end of the season and the blame for Auburn’s disappointing round two exit in the NCAA Tournament was largely placed on these guards whose renegade shot selection took the Tigers out of rhythm.
Now that they’re a year more mature the shot selection has gotten a bit better but there is still some serious streakiness, particularly with Wendell Green. Currently leading the Tigers in scoring with 13 points per game he has been productive but his efficiency hasn’t been great especially from the three-point line where he’s shooting 28%. He can get hot, like when he was 4-6 from deep against Winthrop, but he can also go cold like when he was unable to hit a three in either of Auburn’s losses against Memphis and USC. To some extent the Tigers are going to live and die with the runs he goes on and just what Wendell Green we see against the Gators could really define how the game goes.
KD Johnson also brings some of the high highs and low lows with his streaky shooting, going 4-5 against Colgate and then following it up with a 1-7 night in the loss against Memphis. Making up for some of his streakiness offensively is his defensive play and he’s a pesky defender who makes life difficult for whoever he guards. It will be interesting to see who Bruce Pearl chooses to put him on, and whichever Gator gets that unfortunate matchup will have to deal with his active hands and quick feet.
On paper this is a difficult matchup for the Gators who have struggled to score this year and will now go against one of the best defenses in the SEC who has the athletes in the frontcourt to match up with Colin Castleton. However, if you’re looking for a roadmap to the Gators getting the win you could look at Auburn’s streakiness and think that perhaps the first game after a week and a half of no games could result in a cold night for the Tigers’ guards.
This game takes place Wednesday, December 28th at 7 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN 2.