Florida has their Final Four opponent, and it will be a second matchup against the Auburn Tigers.
Given that Auburn had earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, as the Gators did, it always looked like it was going to be a possibility that these teams would meet in the Final Four, and in a Tournament that has seen the top seeds take care of business this meeting feels like a natural next step.
Going into the matchup the Gators are likely to feel confident, and that’s because in the lone meeting of the SEC season they, simply put, dominated the Tigers. Sure, the final score didn’t look too bad with the Tigers putting up some points in garbage time to make it 90-81 for the Gators at the final buzzer, but make no mistake–this was a dominant performance by the Gators, and on the road no less. At halftime it was 48-38 for the Gators, and coming out in the second half they quickly stretched the lead to as much as 21.
This was one of the most well-rounded offensive performances of the season for the Gators who had five players score between 10 and 19 points–not the usual situation where Walter Clayton is exploding in the mid or high 20’s, and that speaks to the ball movement and the way Florida was finding multiple holes in Auburn’s defense. Florida was also without Alijah Martin in this game due to injury, so the fact that he’s now available will add a new dimension to this game.
Leading the way for Auburn was guard Miles Kelly who had 22 for the Tigers, outpacing SEC Player Of The Year Johni Broome who finished with 18 in a game where Florida was quite happy with how they played him.
At the time, Auburn was on a 14-game winning streak and was #1 in the AP Poll, and Florida saw the target on their back and honed in on it directly. Since then, the Tigers have had a bizarre couple of weeks. If you thought the loss to Florida might break the spirit of the Tigers, well–it didn’t. They rattled off their next six wins, with nearly all of them being blowouts against the top half of the SEC season. At that point they were 15-1 in the SEC, and with the Gators having taken a loss to Georgia, they locked up the regular season title with two games remaining. After a grueling SEC slate, the Tigers definitely took their foot off the gas in the last two games of the season, taking losses to Texas A&M and Alabama in games that were inconsequential to them. It’s impossible to say for sure if they weren’t treating these games with seriousness, but plenty of evidence would suggest that they were. Despite hardly playing zone all season, they played nearly all zone against Texas A&M–and despite it going horribly, they stuck in it regardless of the fact they were giving up bucket after bucket in the defense that was clearly unpracticed. Against Alabama they did give their starters a heavy minute load and didn’t play the zone, but they went to a number of different offensive looks that were unfamiliar just to try something new.
Whenever a team takes their foot off the gas, there is always a question about whether they can bring themselves back to their previous level of play. Some people think it’s possible, but others would say it’s much easier said than done to flip the switch. Looking at the SEC Tournament–you’d say the Tigers were having all kinds of trouble. In their opening game against Ole Miss they were able to get a narrow win, but at no point did they look comfortable and their offense was extremely disjointed. Next, they played Tennessee–and this time it was their defense that cost them as they lacked communication and lost shooters coming off screens, which resulted in the loss.
At this point, Auburn found themselves entering the NCAA Tournament coming off two weeks where they were playing their worst basketball of the season. Opening up against Alabama State, they were up just 10 at the half in a game that they were expected to win by over 30. They did end up winning–but just by 20.
Next, they played Creighton, and while they were able to win due to their overwhelming size, again–no one came away from the game thinking the Tigers were playing great basketball. Against Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen it finally looked like the Tigers were getting back to themselves, and then in the Elite Eight we finally saw them playing like the team that had completely dominated college basketball from November to February.
Now that this long story has reached the present day, we’re left with the question of what the Tigers are right now. Are they the team that was looking like one of the greatest teams college basketball has seen for multiple months, or are they the team that has been playing sloppy basketball for much of the last couple of weeks?
As much as Auburn hasn’t looked their best recently, it’s important to remember just how dominant they were. They were number one in KenPom for much of the season, and only dropped out once they lost the games where they weren’t trying. They have a win over Houston on the road, and played title favorite Duke to just a 6-point loss on the road. In the greatest SEC the league has ever seen, Alabama won the regular season–with two games to spare. However, college basketball is often about how you’ve played recently, and the Tigers haven’t kept up that level of dominance.
When Auburn is playing at their best, they are setting the tone with physical interior play from Johni Broome, Dylan Cardwell, and Chaney Johnson who get “flex” screens (horizontal screens along the baseline) to get freed up for deep touches around the rim. That action is supplemented by Denver Jones, Miles Kelly, and Tahaad Pettiford, all talented guards, knocking down shots on the perimeter once defences collapse. When they need a bucket late, they go to 6’7” Chad Baker-Mazara, a rangy ball handler who can make passes all around the defense due to his height.
Auburn has also been a stout defensive team, largely due to their physicality up and down the lineup. It starts with Johni Broome and his versatility, and the length around him also means that the Auburn guards are able to be awfully aggressive on the outside knowing that there is structure behind them to cover up any possible mistakes.
Auburn is also an incredibly emotional team, and that is something that both nurtures them, but can also turn to poison. When things are going well, that emotion allows them to go on spirited runs that can quickly stack up points that put the game out of reach. However, on the opposite side of things, that emotion has resulted in sloppy turnovers, frustration fouls, and a number of situations where players have been thrown out of games for flagrant fouls. This is a game where the most composed team is going to be well-positioned to win, and the neutral observer would certainly say this will be an x-factor that goes in Florida’s favor.
Something to watch will also be the health of Johni Broome, who took a nasty fall against Michigan State that looked at the moment like he could be done for the season. It was such an awkward landing that it looked like his knee, elbow, and wrist could have all been injured due to hyperextension, and when he went to the locker room there was very little belief that he would be back either in this game, or possibly the rest of the season. However, he was able to return to an absolute roar of applause from the crowd and he even hit his first jump shot. Though he was able to return, sometimes once the adrenaline wears off these injuries can start to be fully realized, and while he might not miss the game against the Gators he could be nursing several ailments.
Obviously, when you make it this deep in the Tournament there are no easy games. Everyone who has got this far has earned it, and it is going to be only challenging possessions from here. The Gators will look to make more history on the backs of their shot making, rebounding, and overall intensity.
Florida and Auburn will tip off Saturday, April 5th at 6:09 PM ET, and it will be televised on CBS.