Having won seven of their last eight the Florida Gators (18-7, 8-4 SEC) are steadily gaining momentum and they’ll have one of the biggest tests of the season on February 21st when they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (18-7, 10-2 SEC). Currently the Crimson Tide sit at the top of the SEC standings but the Gators aren’t all that far behind. With tiebreaks the Gators are 6th in the league which might not sound like they’re chasing down 1st place but they’re only two games back–and with two games against Alabama remaining on the schedule, there is an outside chance the Gators could compete for an SEC regular season title.
When it comes to Alabama’s season there is a bit of a discrepancy between the metrics, the eye test, and the actual resume. First, let’s talk metrics. Alabama is fifth in the NET rankings, suggesting they could be in the mix for a Final Four (it also means this is clearly a quadrant-1 game for the Gators). They also look strong in KenPom, where they are sixth. When it comes to the eye test, they’re also awfully impressive. Having scored over 100 points eight times this season (as well as games of 99, 99, and 98) they are extremely explosive and when they win–they usually win in blowouts. However, when it comes to an actual resume–it doesn’t quite stack up. That isn’t to say their resume is bad–but their best wins have come against Auburn, Mississippi State, and Indiana State. They don’t necessarily have bad losses, but they’ve dropped games to Tennessee, Auburn, Arizona, Creighton, Purdue, Clemson, and Ohio State. None of those are bad losses, but it’s notable that they haven’t been able to get many big wins despite plenty of opportunities. If that sounds familiar–it’s similar to what the Gators have gone through this year. Alabama is 2-6 in quad-1 games which speaks to their lack of quality wins, something that could hurt them when it comes to Selection Sunday. Because of their discrepancy between quality metrics and resume there is a bit of a range of where they are currently seeded in Bracketology between some people who have them as a 2-seed and some who have them as a 4-seed. Luckily for the Crimson Tide even their low-end outcome right now looks like a 4-seed, which speaks to the quality of team the Gators will be going against.
When it comes to Florida’s current Selection Sunday situation, they have a very good week. Their wins against LSU and Georgia aren’t exactly needed movers, particularly due to the fact they were closer games than the metrics would suggest they should have been, but they avoided bad losses and more importantly–a lot of teams around them in the projected bracket took bad losses. Sometimes your seed isn’t just what you accomplish but what happens around you and the poor play of a number of teams has really helped the Gators. They’re currently a 7-seed in Bracket Matrix, though a number of the most accurate bracketologists in recent history have the Gators as a 6-seed. Florida’s resume still isn’t loaded with huge wins so if the Gators were able to knock off Alabama at home they would gain a seed line if not more–so there is plenty to gain.
Alabama basketball under Nate Oats is all about offense, and this year they have embodied that more than ever. The Crimson Tide are currently first in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric and given their massive point totals as mentioned before–they’re first in just about any offensive rating system you’re going to find. They’re also third in average possession length and sixth in three-point rate–so you know they’re going to play fast and they’re going to let threes fly. When it comes to roster building Coach Oats went all in on pace and space and while they might have some deficiencies in other areas–they have maximized their offensive ability.
Offensively things all start with guard Mark Sears who is in his second year at Alabama after transferring from Ohio. He had a productive first season but has absolutely taken off this year averaging 20.6 points, 4.0 assists, 4.3 rebounds, and, for good measure, 1.8 steals on the defensive end on his way to being the favorite for SEC Player Of The Year as well as probable All-American honors. Where does Sears’ offensive production come from, you might ask? Well…everywhere. Sears is someone who has always been known as a shifty driver who can get to the paint at will, and that has been the case once again. However, at the same time–he has developed nearly unlimited range with the jump shot. Sears is averaging a remarkable 45% from three on 133 attempts, meaning that when guarding him you have to be equally as concerned with the drive as you are with the pull-up shooting. This makes Sears one of the best scorers in the country and he’ll be at the top of Florida’s scouting report.
What makes Alabama so good offensively is that they have surrounded Sears with players that perfectly compliment his abilities. If teams try to force the ball out of his hands it goes to Hofstra transfer Aaron Estrada who is excellent at keeping the ball moving with speed out of those double teams finding wide open shooters. Those shooters? Latrell Wrightsell (45% from three), Rylan Griffen (41% from three), and Sam Walters (44% from three), all of which don’t just shoot good percentages but do it with a lot of volume. Alabama also gets some interior scoring from Grant Nelson, a 6’11” center who came to the Crimson Tide from North Dakota State after being considered one of the best transfers available. Nelson is one Alabama player who doesn’t provide tremendous shooting but he can score on the block and is particularly skilled at taking advantage of mismatches–something Alabama preys on more than anybody. The Crimson Tide are constantly trying to get opposing big men switches onto Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada and when that happens the first option is to attack downhill. If there is a big switched onto a guard that also means a small is probably switched onto a big and if that big is Grant Nelson he’s going to take them on the block and finish with his length.
For the Gators, a focus is going to be how they’re able to guard on the perimeter which is a major concern given that their defense has not been a strength this year. Additionally the Gators like to play two big men at all times–and that means two players that Alabama is going to relentlessly attack defensively. Florida’s drop pick and roll coverage is geared towards staying out of rotation and out of switches so they’ll focus on that working, but if not the Gators could consider playing a bit smaller and only having one big out on the floor in order to be a bit more switchable and a bit better defensively on the perimeter.
Considering how explosive Alabama is offensively you might be thinking–why haven’t they been able to win many of their big games? Well, with their roster completely geared towards offense–they are giving up a lot on the defensive end. Alabama is currently 74th in adjusted defensive efficiency and when you look at their losses it’s almost always because they were giving up a ton of points and while they can usually keep up if they go cold from three it can be game over. The Crimson Tide have speedy perimeter players offensively, but not guys who are great laterally at taking away drives on the other end. In recent years they’ve also had shot blocking centers that can cover up a lot of mistakes on the perimeter but this year that isn’t the case. Overall this is an undersized Alabama team that isn’t super athletic as you’d come to expect from recent teams and while they are tuned to be lethal offensively they have to give something up and in this case it’s defense. Their lack of size and athleticism has also hurt them on the glass ranking 245th in the country in defensive rebounding, something the Gators could exploit if they choose to continue to play two bigs.
In a lot of ways this is a “found money” opportunity game for the Gators. Luckily they have played their way into the NCAA Tournament field and playing Alabama on the road there isn’t much to be lost. With Alabama 5th in the NET a loss on the road wouldn’t hurt the Gators (so long as they don’t get blown out) but a win would be humongous. Florida should be playing free and easy knowing that they don’t really have anything to lose but a ton to gain, and if they can bring the defensive intensity to slow down the Crimson Tide a bit they should be able to keep up in the scoring department.
Florida and Alabama will tip off at 7 PM ET on February 21st and it will be televised on ESPN 2.