The Florida Gators are full of talent and depth this season which means they have all kinds of possibilities when it comes to lineup combinations. Scheduling a relatively easy non-conference slate, the Gators chose to use the first part of the season as an opportunity to tinker with different styles of play and player combinations in order to be a well-oiled machine for SEC play.
Today, using lineup data we will take a look at some of Florida’s different player combinations, as well as the individual impact those players have been having when on the floor.
Before we begin, you’ll need to know how a couple of different stats work, namely–net rating. Net rating (not to be confused with the NCAA’s “NET Rankings” that evaluate teams) is offensive rating minus defensive rating. To get those numbers:
Offensive rating is points per possession scored offensively multiplied by 100.
Defensive rating is points per possession allowed defensively multiplied by 100.
If you’re not into numbers, that’s fine–there is an easy way of knowing what is a good or bad net ranking. If the number is positive, that means a lineup is out-scoring their opposition when they’re on the court which is, of course, a good thing. If the number is negative, that means that lineup is getting out-scored, which is a bad thing.
Also, an offensive rating above 100 is considered good, and a defensive rating below 100 is considered good.
We’ll also look at some individual player impacts where we will talk about their individual net rating, offensive rating, and defensive rating–and the way to evaluate those numbers will be simple as well. If the number is positive it means that the player is having a positive impact in that area, and if it’s negative they’re having a negative impact.
It’s also worth noting that according to KenPom the Gators have had the 208th most difficult non-conference schedule, and due to this they are going to have a lot of aggressively positive numbers. Once we hit the SEC slate, it will be interesting to reevaluate some of these numbers and start to get a better look at what lineups are best for the Gators.
To begin, we have to start with Florida’s starting lineup.
Walter Clayton
Alijah Martin
Will Richard
Alex Condon
Reuben Chinuyelu
They have a massive offensive rating of 120 and a defensive rating of 79, making for a net rating of +41.
Now, I mentioned earlier that a positive rating is what you’re looking for, but some further context is now required looking at these numbers. Usually when you look at the best lineups in college basketball, they have a net rating of somewhere between +10 and +20 over the course of the season.
That means that right now, Florida’s starting lineup is absolutely pounding opponents. Not only are they completely dominant, but they’re crushing it on both ends. In a vacuum, a 120 offensive rating is stellar, and a defensive rating of 79 is magnificent. Florida’s starters are doing both of those things.
Have they been Florida’s best lineup by the numbers? Shockingly–there is one even better.
Walter Clayton
Alijah Martin
Will Richard
Thomas Haugh
Reuben Chinuyelu
If you take out Condon and sub in Thomas Haugh, the Gators have a 143 offensive rating and a 94 defensive rating, making for a +49 net rating.
Of course, it’s early and these numbers don’t take into account the game situation or the quality of the opponent lineup so it’s too early to say that this is a “better” lineup than the starters with Condon (especially when we look at some more numbers later), but it’s something to monitor.
Another lineup of note is this more bench heavy group:
Walter Clayton
Denzel Aberdeen
Will Richard
Thomas Haugh
Sam Alexis
They have a net rating of +46, which speaks to just how much Florida’s depth has been able to dominate their opponent’s depth.
As Florida continues to decipher which players should fall into each roll we can look at the impact they have on the floor versus when they’re on the bench. Naturally, every player wants to positively impact both the defensive and offensive side of the ball when entering the game, and we can actually see how Florida’s defense and offense changes with a player on the floor versus on the bench.
For example, Florida’s offensive rating improves +6 points (per 100 possessions, as every rating going forward will be) with Walter Clayton on the floor, but you might be surprised to learn their defense actually improves +15.6 points. I bet you didn’t guess that Clayton would have more of an impact defensively than offensively, but the numbers suggest that could be the case.
A bit of a surprising number on the inverse is Alijah Martin, who improves Florida’s offense +6 when he’s on the floor, but has actually hurt the defense -9. Again, it’s early and you don’t want to take these numbers as gospel before the Gators have played many challenging games, but it’s simply something to watch out for.
Let’s go through the other player’s with notable numbers.
Thomas Haugh has one of the more wild swings, with the Gators getting +13 better offensively with him on the floor, and -16 points worse defensively with him on the floor. This is particularly crazy because he has the most positive offensive impact of any Gator, but the most negative defensive impact of any Gator. Again–this could just be a small sample size theatre situation early in the season, but it’s something to watch for.
Someone whose statistical impact likely won’t shock you is Reuben Chinyelu. Florida’s defense improves +13 with him on the floor, but their offense suffers -15.
One player whose impact does not look good when looking at the on/off numbers is Sam Alexis. With Alexis on the floor Florida’s offense drops -10, and their defense gets -11 points worse–and his -21 net impact is far and away the lowest on the Gators.
Though not as negative as Alexis, Denzel Aberdeen has dropped the Gators -7 points on offense and -4 points on defense.
With the Gators having a week off between games there is an opportunity to reset and take a look at data like this and it will be interesting to see if there are any rotation adjustments moving forward. Right now the lineup data is a tool that is somewhat incomplete, but it’s something that will give you a few interesting notes to keep an eye on as the Gators slowly but surely move into SEC play.