The No. 6 Florida Gators trek to the Midwest this weekend, visiting the Missouri Tigers at Taylor Stadium in a three-game series beginning Friday, April 5.
All three games will stream on SEC Network+ with Friday night’s series premiere scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Games two and three will begin on Saturday at 4 p.m. ET and Sunday at 2 p.m. ET.
Florida (17-11, 6-3 SEC) visits Missouri (12-18, 1-8 SEC) for the first time since 2022 as the Gators look to remain undefeated in weekend series this season. Florida is 6-3 in SEC play, boasting a trio of top-25 series victories over No. 4 Texas A&M, No. 5 LSU and No. 21 Mississippi State while also taking down Saint Mary’s, Columbia and Miami in non-conference action.
When the Gators last played at Missouri, they won two of three games for a series win (W 13-1, L 5-3, W 4-3). Overall, Florida has won 20 of the last 21 matchups for a 31-5 all-time series lead. The Gators are 26-4 vs. the Tigers under head coach Kevin O’Sullivan including 11-4 on the road.
PITCHING MATCHUPS
Friday: RHP Brandon Neely vs (1-0, 6.05 ERA) vs RHP Logan Lunceford (1-2, 7.28 ERA)
Saturday: RHP Liam Peterson (1-3, 8.31 ERA) vs LHP Javyn Pimental (1-1, 2.60 ERA)
Sunday: LHP Jac Caglianone (3-0, 2.18 ERA) vs TBD
SCOUTING THE TIGERS
The Tigers are statistically one of the worst hitting teams in college baseball this season, holding a batting average of .248, which ranks 253rd out of 295 division one baseball teams. Missouri has shuffled their lineup quite a bit this season in an effort to fix the offensive woes, having started 13 players in ten games or more this season. For comparison, Florida has 11 players with ten starts or more.
To make matters more difficult for Missouri, one of their best players in first baseman Jackson Lovich is apparently dealing with an injury as he’s missed the last seven games for the Tigers. Lovich holds a .322 batting average with six home runs, both ranking 2nd on the team. There’s no timetable for his return.
Only one player on Missouri’s offense has started more than 77% of their games (23 starts) this season; INF/OF Trevor Austin. The Jefferson City native has started all 30 games for the Tigers, leading the team with eight home runs and holding a batting average of .269. While Austin looks like their most reliable player outside of Lovich, his numbers are extremely average compared to the star power Florida pitching has faced this season. His OBP of .394 ranks 6th on the Tigers’ as he’s only walked 13 times this season.
Missouri has swatted 33 home runs this season, which ranks T-93rd in D1.
Missouri pitching
Missouri’s pitching staff has posted a 5.43 ERA on the mound this season, ranking 108th in D1. The Tigers are coming off a respectable weekend against No.9 Vanderbilt, where they allowed just 10 total runs across a three-game series.
Friday night starter Logan Lunceford has been tagged for at least three runs in every start this season but one against Purdue Fort Wayne. Lunceford has allowed five home runs across 29.2 innings pitched, which bodes well for Florida’s high-powered offense. Three of those home runs came in his start against No.1 Arkansas.
Lunceford hasn’t overpowered opposing lineups this season, striking out 23 batters in seven starts (29.2 innings). His command has been elite, however. Lunceford has walked just six batters this season, posting a walks per nine of 1.82, which ranks 67th in the country.
Saturday starter Javyn Pimental has been the most consistent weekend arm for Missouri in 2024. In back-to-back starts against No.1 Arkansas and No.17 Kentucky, the left hander combined for 11 innings of one run ball, allowing just five hits and two walks while striking out nine. Pimental has a little more swing and miss than Lunceford, striking out just over a batter an inning across 27.2 frames. Like Lunceford, Pimental has elite command, walking just seven batters this season. Pimental has also done a great job of limiting extra base hits, allowing just one home run and five doubles this season.
Series prediction
While on paper it looks as if this should be a sweep for Florida, I have the Gators taking two of three, winning their 7th straight weekend series. Despite the weekend success, Florida has yet to put it together for three straight games against SEC teams, both offensively and on the mound. At this point in the season it doesn’t look like Florida is built to sweep very many teams.
Missouri is 1-5 in their last six SEC games, but the Tigers were competitive in each of those five losses. I think Saturday’s game could be a problem for the Gators this weekend.