The Florida Gators have won eight of their last nine games to put themselves back in the NCAA Tournament picture. However, because of their dreadful start to conference play, Florida still has a lot of work to do if they want to avoid missing the postseason for the first time under Kevin O’Sullivan.
As of today, D1Baseball and Baseball America project Florida as the last team in the field of 64 with a 28-15 (6-12 SEC) record. They also predict a record breaking 13 SEC teams make the tournament. The Gators actually have a better overall record this year than in 2024, when they barely made the NCAA Tournament. Florida has put together a very impressive non-conference resume, posting a 22-3 record against non-SEC teams which includes a midweek series win over No.4 FSU. While a strong non-conference record certainly isn’t hurting Florida’s chances, no SEC team has ever received an at large bid in the NCAA Tournament with 11 or less conference wins, and only three teams have made it with a 12-18 conference record.
So what conference win total does Florida need to reach? The vibe around the program is that 13 wins will get them in the tournament. Last year, Vanderbilt, Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, and Florida all made the postseason with 13 conference wins. With the SEC as strong as it’s ever been after the additions of Texas and Oklahoma, it’s safe to assume 13 SEC wins will get you an at large bid.
With the goal set at 13 SEC wins, Florida needs to finish 7-5 across the last four series. The Gators have won five of their last six conference games but have an incredibly difficult test this weekend when they host the No.5 Arkansas Razorbacks, one of the more complete teams in college baseball. Taking two of three games this weekend would be massive for Florida.
After a series with the Razorbacks, Florida plays South Carolina on the road, No.1 Texas on the road, and No.18 Alabama at home. If Florida can win three of their final four series, they’ll likely make the postseason. If they split the series 2-2, they’ll likely have to sweep South Carolina, win the Alabama series, and avoid being swept by Arkansas and Texas. The key right now is winning series, but the other key is avoiding being swept, which Florida simply can’t afford at this point in the season. A 7-5 finish, no matter how it’s done, should get the Gators in the postseason given their No.7 strength of schedule ranking. The other metric in Florida’s favor is their No.24 RPI ranking, a metric the committee uses when selecting NCAA Tournament teams. While an RPI in the 20’s isn’t great for Florida’s standards and ranks just 11th in the SEC, if the committee does in fact put in a record breaking 13 SEC teams, their RPI is something that will help them over teams from other conferences. With a difficult schedule left, Florida will see their RPI go up if they can pick up a few key victories.
That’s the path for 13 SEC wins, but it’s not impossible for Florida to receive an at-large bid with 12. In fact, some baseball analysts around the country believe it’s entirely possible. The biggest factor here is one Florida can’t control; bid stealers from conference tournaments. The winner of each conference tournament gets an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. For smaller conferences, usually the winner of the tournament is their lone representative. But for conferences like the ACC that will have multiple teams receive an at-large bid, if the winner of the tournament is a team that wasn’t projected to make the field, it essentially takes a spot from an at-large team. The more bid stealers there are, the less of a chance Florida has at making the tournament with a relatively weak resume.
At the very least Florida needs to go 6-6 the rest of the way, while a 7-5 finish would make the Gators’ baseball team fairly confident in their chances at postseason play. Florida could also add to their resume in the SEC Tournament, although I’m not convinced the committee puts any real weight on those games. The Gators could win the SEC Tournament and receive and automatic bid, but that seems like a tall task given Florida would be seeded at No.13 in the tournament if the season ended today.