Florida baseball made the NCAA Tournament as the No.2 seed in the Conway Regional, joining No.1 seed Coastal Carolina, No.3 seed East Carolina, and No.4 seed Fairfield. Before Gator Country dives into specific matchups, I wanted to provide a more generalized preview to gain a better understanding of the Gators’ competition this weekend.
Coastal Carolina (48-11, 26-4 SBC)
The Chanticleers put together an unbelievable season in the Sun Belt conference and enter the NCAA Tournament having won 18 games in a row. Despite holding the 8th best RPI in the country, Costal Carolina missed out on a top 8 national seed because of their strength of schedule, which ranked 66th in college baseball. They also only posted a 5-5 record against quad one teams. The Chanticleers do have a few wins over tournament teams on their resume, including a pair of victories over Kansas State, a series win over East Carolina, a midweek sweep over No.1 seed Clemson, and a Sun Belt Championship game win over No.1 seed Southern Miss. Coastal Carolina and Southern Miss are the only two teams from the Sun Belt conference to make a regional.
The first thing to note about Coastal Carolina’s ballclub is their team 3.25 ERA, which ranks second in the country. They are led by Friday night starter RHP Jacob Morrison, who holds an 11-0 record and a 1.90 ERA in 14 starts. Morrison is a semifinalist for National Pitcher of the Year and the Golden Spikes Award. Florida would likely face Morrison shall they match up on day two of the regional. Coastal Carolina has three weekend starters that all hold a sub 3.2 ERA and a deep bullpen to match. As a staff, the Chanticleers ranks 5th in walks allowed per nine innings, 10th in hits allowed per nine innings, 34th in strikeouts per nine innings, and 3rd in WHIP.
Coastal Carolina isn’t nearly as good offensively, where they hold a team batting average of .288, which ranks 100th in college baseball. The Chanticleers aren’t a team that hits the long ball very often, launching just 56 home runs as a team which ranks 152nd in the country. Despite the lack of ultra impressive numbers, Coastal Carolina still manages to score nearly 7.5 runs per game, totaling 442 runs scored this year which ranks 52nd in the country. One way they outperform their statistics is their aggressiveness on the bases, swiping 99 bags across 59 games this season. Coastal Carolina has four guys with double digit stolen base totals including Sebastian Alexander, who leads the team with 25 on the year. While the Chanticleers may not hit for a high average, they do get on base at a .412% rate behind an NCAA leading 160 hit batters. Coastal Carolina will play small ball with the best of them, converting 49 sacrifice bunts this season which is the 9th most in the country. The Chanticleers are a good situational hitting team as highlighted by their 37 sacrifice flies this season. One statistic in Florida’s favor is Coastal Carolina’s 25.1 strikeout percentage as the Gators remain one of the better swing and miss staffs in the country. While Coastal Carolina doesn’t have a ton of guys that scare you at the plate, they play to their brand of baseball which has proven to be highly effective. Strike throwing and good defense will be keys to beating Coastal Carolina on their home field.
East Carolina (33-25, 13-14 AAC)
Florida opens up the Conway Regional with No.3 seed East Carolina, who earned an automatic bid after winning the American Conference Tournament. The Pirates are not the team they’ve been in years past as highlighted by their sub .500 record in the American Athletic Conference, which had just one at large bid in the NCAA Tournament. However, East Carolina is entering regionals having won four games in a row and is clearly playing their best ball of the season. The Pirates rank 66th in RPI and hold just a 6-14 record against quad one and quad two teams.
On the mound, East Carolina holds a team ERA of 5.04, which ranks 76th in the country. Florida will likely face LHP Ethan Norby, a 5’9, 200-pound sophomore who has had quite the collegiate career so far. On the 2025 season, Norby holds a 7-5 record with a 3.81 ERA. He’s struck out 109 batters in 82.2 innings including 19 strikeouts in a 7-0 win against Coastal Carolina earlier in the season. The Pirates have swing and miss stuff all over their pitching staff, averaging 9.4 strikeouts per nine, which ranks 35th in the country. They run into a little bit of trouble with their command, walking 4.32 batters per game, ranking 92nd in the country.
Offensively, East Carolina holds a team batting average of .275 which ranks 174th in the country. The Pirates average 6.25 runs per game, the lowest average in the Conway Regional. They’ve hit 69 home runs in 2025 with Dixon Williams leading the way with 13. The Pirates don’t strike out a ton but it hasn’t resulted in a high on base percentage at .377%. Like Coastal Carolina, the Pirates will try to manufacture runs to make up for their lack of offensive production. East Carolina has 54 sacrifice bunts this season, which is the 8th most in the country. While ECU isn’t as aggressive on the base paths, they do have two guys to look out for in Dixon Williams and Braden Burress, who have combined for 38 stolen bags this season. Ultimately, East Carolina is a team that wasn’t going to make the regionals without winning their conference tournament. However, Florida will have a challenge with a good Friday night starter in Ethan Norby.
Fairfield (39-17, 21-8 MAAC)
If all goes as expected, Florida won’t have to play Fairfield University, but that isn’t always how it works. Fairfield won the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Championship, receiving an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. The Stags rank 77th in RPI, which isn’t much lower than East Carolina’s 66th ranking. Fairfield did not play a quad one team this season and held a 2-4 record against quad two teams.
Fairfield has impressive numbers almost everywhere you look, albeit against inferior competition. The Stags hold a team ERA of 4.84 with all three weekend starters posting a sub 4.00 ERA. Fairfield does a nice job throwing strikes but they don’t register a lot of punch outs, striking out just 397 batters in 492.1 innings, which equates to 7.3 strikeouts per nine, nearly the lowest mark in the country. Fairfield’s pitching staff keeps the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 53 home runs this season.
The Stags can swing the bat, posting a .295 team batting average with 67 home runs. Fairfield averages 8.32 runs per game behind a balanced approach offensively. The Stags are aggressive on the base paths with 95 stolen bags in 2025. Fairfield doesn’t play a ton of small ball but that may change in the NCAA Tournament against much better competition. Fairfield holds an impressive strikeout percentage of 20.6. They’ve also walked 359 times this year resulting in an on base percentage of .411.
Coastal Carolina is the slight betting odds favorite to win the Conway Regional at +105 while Florida holds the second-best odds at +130.
Florida’s numbers
BA: .295
HR: 88
OBP: .404
SB: 87
ERA: 4.84
Strikeouts per nine: 11.6
Walks per nine: 4.41