The Gators will begin the 2022 season this weekend when they host Liberty for a three-game series.
While the Gators are ranked inside the top-10 in five of the six preseason polls, there are plenty of question marks and reasons to pump the brakes on your expectations.
Offensively, they must replace always reliable leadoff hitter Jacob Young and Nathan Hickey, a mainstay in the middle of the order. Several returning players will need to make big strides this season to keep the offense humming along.
While elite pitching was the cornerstone of Kevin O’Sullivan’s program not too long ago, the Gators have woefully underperformed in each of the last two full seasons. The 2022 pitching staff features nine true freshmen that will try to restore order on the mound.
On Tuesday, we took an in-depth look at the position players. Today, we’ll focus on the pitching staff.
Projected Weekend Rotation
(with 2021 stats)
Game 1: LHP Hunter Barco (10-3, 4.01 ERA)
Game 2: RHP Brandon Sproat (2-1, 6.65)
Game 3: LHP Pierce Coppola (N/A)
Overview: Barco is the only known commodity in the rotation. He’s going to start the first game of every series unless something bizarre happens.
The consensus preseason All-American turned in a solid 2021 campaign, striking out 94 batters in a team-high 16 starts. He put together a streak of nine consecutive starts without being charged with a loss at one point.
He’s looked even better throughout the offseason, as he’s controlled all of his pitches more consistently. He tossed five hitless and scoreless innings in a scrimmage last week.
He can get himself into trouble at times with walks, hit by pitches and wild pitches, but he’s become very hard to hit. If he’s able to reign in his wildness a little bit, expect him to jump from being a good pitcher to one of the best in the country.
The other two spots in the rotation were up for grabs in practices over the last three weeks, and it may continue to be a revolving door over the first few weeks.
Sproat started against Barco in the scrimmage on Saturday night, which means that he will likely start on Saturday against Liberty.
The third-year sophomore started two games late in the 2021 season and seemed to pitch a little bit better, but he still finished with an ugly ERA and a .330 batting average against him. In his relief appearance against South Alabama in the regional, he gave up seven earned runs on seven hits in just 2/3 of an inning.
He did throw three scoreless innings for the USA Baseball Collegiate National Team against the Olympic team over the summer, but he’s been hit around pretty good by his teammates throughout the fall and spring.
Sproat has touched 100 miles per hour with his fastball before, but his fastball is very straight, and his off-speed pitches haven’t been very effective. So, once opposing teams time up his fastball after he’s gone through the order one time, he’s done. Unless his slider and changeup improve significantly, he might be better suited for a role in the back end of the bullpen.
Coppola has risen to the top of the freshmen class over the last few weeks. A couple of weeks ago, he struck out nine batters and didn’t give up a hit in three innings. He tossed three more scoreless innings in a scrimmage last week before running into trouble in the fourth.
He’s going to remind fans of former Gator and current member of the Oakland Athletics A.J. Puk, as he’s a 6-foot-8 lefty from up North (Verona, New Jersey). Coppola is more advanced than Puk was at this stage in their respective college careers. He’s been surprisingly consistent for a freshman over the last few weeks.
Three Questions
1. Can Barco become a dominant ace?
Tommy Mace seems to be a nice guy and he was a good pitcher, but he was never that dominant Friday night guy that the Gators needed. In an ideal world, he would’ve been the Sunday starter.
To win the SEC and contend for a national championship, you need to have that guy that makes other teams already chalk up game one as a loss before the first pitch is even thrown.
Barco has a chance to become the first pitcher that the Gators have had like that since Brady Singer in 2018. And, with the rest of the rotation and the bullpen in unknown waters, they probably need Barco to become that guy.
Barco has looked the part so far this spring, but it needs to carry over to the season.
2. Can Sproat become more consistent?
He’s shown the ability to be really good before. He put together a streak of 6 1/3 innings over six games without giving up a run last year. He gave up just one hit and no runs in four innings in his first start against Stetson. He gave up just one run in the first three innings of his start against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament.
Sproat only gave up one earned run in six innings of relief in the abbreviated 2020 season. Then, of course, he shut down a team that ended up winning the silver medal in the Olympics.
He’s capable of being really good, but he just hasn’t done it yet. The Gators need that to change.
3. How will the third starting spot shake out?
Coppola has looked the part so far, but you never know how freshmen are going to pan out once the season starts. It’s common to see pitchers who played really well throughout the offseason struggle and other guys step up that you weren’t expecting much from.
If Coppola falters, redshirt freshman Ryan Slater, freshman Kyle Hartman and sophomore Timmy Manning could be options.
Bullpen
The players: Philip Abner, Jac Caglianone, Nick Ficarrotta, Carsten Finnvold, Karl Hartman, Fisher Jameson, Timmy Manning, Hunter McMullen, Garrett Milchin, Brandon Neely, Tyler Nesbitt, Nick Pogue, Blake Purnell, Ryan Slater, Sam Sloan and Anthony Ursitti
Overview: Pogue and Nesbitt are probably two of their best arms in the bullpen. Pogue has a 4.40 career ERA in 23 appearances, including six starts. He entered last spring as a likely member of the weekend rotation.
Nesbitt didn’t give up a run in 11 2/3 innings as a freshman in 2020.
Unfortunately, both Pogue and Nesbitt are still working their way back from season-ending Tommy John surgeries. O’Sullivan expects them to return to action in March. When they do return, they’ll have to knock some rust off, so who knows how effective they’ll be this year.
In their place, expect to see a ton of freshmen. Abner is a lefty with a good fastball-changeup combination who attended the same high school in Charlotte as Gator Great Jackson Kowar. He looked really good in the fall but has struggled a bit in the spring. If he’s able to get back on track, he’ll be a multi-inning option.
Finnvold is a lefty who only throws his fastball in the high-70s or low 80s, but he makes up for it with a great changeup and a big, looping breaking ball. He’ll be more of a left-on-left matchup type of pitcher.
Hartman is in the mix for one of the starting jobs, but it looks like he’ll start the year in the bullpen. Expect him to be one of their top relievers.
There are some older guys who might play significant roles as well. Ficarrotta, a rare third-year freshman, doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he’s done a nice job of working out of some jams that he’s inherited this spring.
Manning was one of the top pitchers to make it to college in the 2020 signing class, but last year was a major struggle for him. He posted a 6.60 ERA in eight appearances. Control was his main issue, as he walked 13 batters in 15 innings. When he threw the ball over the plate, he did fine, as batters hit just .232 against him.
Manning struggled some more in the fall, but he’s pitched really well this spring to enter the starting rotation mix. If he comes out of the bullpen, he’ll be a multi-inning guy.
He has a terrific breaking ball that is almost unhittable at times, but he didn’t locate his fastball often enough early in counts last season for his breaking ball to be effective. He’s done a much better job of that over the last few weeks.
Purnell didn’t appear in any games as a freshman in 2021, but he’s been one of their most consistent performers so far this spring.
Slater could be the biggest surprise on the entire pitching staff this season. He wasn’t a highly ranked recruit that throws the ball 100 miles per hour, and he didn’t appear in any games last year. But he’s started a few scrimmages this offseason and never seems to have a bad outing.
He doesn’t have this amazing, overpowering stuff, but hitters just can’t seem to make solid contact against him because of how well he locates his pitches and changes speeds.
Slater is a dark-horse candidate to join the starting rotation. If he doesn’t, expect him to possibly become a multi-inning closer in the mold of Michael Byrne.
Three Questions
1. Who will emerge as the guy that the Gators give the ball to at the end of the game?
O’Sullivan’s best pitching staffs have had an established closer. For a couple of years, the game was very simple for the Gators – get the ball into Byrne’s hand with a lead in the seventh inning. Prior to that, Shaun Anderson filled a similar role. Even the 2020 team that went 16-1 had a dependable closer in Ben Specht, who inexplicably was horrible last year.
There isn’t an obvious choice at this point. Abner, Ficarrotta, Hartman, Purnell and Slater could all be options, as could Nesbitt and Pogue when they return.
These first few weeks of the season will be an important time to figure out the roles on such a young pitching staff.
2. Has Manning turned a corner?
He was surprisingly ineffective last year, and the way he performed in the fall wasn’t very reassuring.
He’s pitched well of late, but is that a sign of things to come or a mere aberration?
The Gators could really use a lefty such as Manning to serve as a multi-innings reliever. Manning will probably get the first crack at it if he’s not in the rotation.
3. Which of the freshmen will become major factors?
Abner and Hartman seem to have separated themselves from the other freshmen, not counting Coppola.
Can they get two or three other guys to join them, such as Finnvold, Neely and Jameson?
All three of them had good falls but have struggled majorly at times in the spring. The Gators need them to snap out of their funks quickly, or this is going to be another really thin pitching staff.