After the Orange and Blue Game, Billy Napier broke one of the cardinal rules of the Nick Saban coaching tree. You do not, under any circumstances, acknowledge the validity of recruiting rankings. They are either a distraction most vile for your best players, or they’re the product of know-nothings in the case of former 3-stars who go on to become All-Conference or NFL performers.
However, in talking about true freshman receiver Dallas Wilson, Napier had this to say: “I’d say that’s what a Five-Star looks like”.
Okay, now that you’re back from your fainting couch, let’s break something down for a minute.
Florida has one of the most promising quarterbacks in the game in DJ Lagway. When On3’s Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman recently did their ranking of the top ten returning signal callers in the game, they were unanimous about having Lagway as their No. 1 guy. The lists differed further down, but there was zero doubt about the top of it.
No, Lagway didn’t throw any passes in spring due to a shoulder issue. And the staff was very cagey about the situation, which created room for rumors to run wild. However, Napier has said the near news blackout about the injury was largely at the Lagway family’s request and that DJ will be 100% come the first week of June. Absent any other information — and I don’t know where it would come from — I’m going to take Napier at his word for now and hold him to account later if it turns out he wasn’t being honest about this.
At running back, you know what UF has in Jadan Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson. The one thing missing from their collective games was explosiveness. Baugh had only one breakaway play in 2024, a 55-yarder against LSU, and Jackson had no runs longer than 20 yards on the year. In the spring game, Baugh showed impressive moves we didn’t really see from him in taking a screen pass nearly 50 yards down the field. Jackson broke through tackling attempts to take a handoff for 90 yards, looking legitimately a bit faster than he did a year ago.
Yes, the normal spring caveats apply here about level of competition and complexity of the defensive scheme and all that. It’s not entirely about what Baugh and Jackson did but the way they moved, compared to how they moved last fall. Both showed something extra.
At receiver, J. Michael Sturdivant appears to be a drop-in replacement for Elijhah Badger — gigantic catch radius included. I say that less from the spring game, a contest in which he had just one (albeit impressive) catch on throws from UF’s backups, than from his UCLA tape. Former freshman All-American Tre Wilson will be back, completely healthy for the first time after he had a congenital hip issue finally fixed in surgery. The other Wilson, Dallas, looks so impressive that Napier doesn’t even try to coachspeak around the young man’s potential. Even like-against-like with him going up against fellow borderline 5-star freshman CB Ben Hanks, Jr. in the spring game, Wilson’s size, power, and speed look awfully special.
Vernell Brown III also looks like the real deal as a freshman, and Naeshaun Montgomery isn’t far behind. Aidan Mizell continues to become a more complete player. Last year’s freshmen Tank Hawkins and TJ Abrams are not to be forgotten either. It’s easily Florida’s deepest receiver room since 2019.
Four-of-five starting offensive linemen return, including reigning All-American Jake Slaughter at center. The one open spot saw both contenders, likely starter Bryce Lovett and top backup Caden Jones, earn spring awards. The line has played a ton of snaps together and has proven to largely be durable. Napier’s brand of offense requires great line play to excel, and Florida absolutely has it this year.
Tight end is the one spot where there isn’t an abundance of optimism. Hayden Hansen will continue to be reliable as a blocker and get a big catch or two up the seam. Tony Livingston earned a most-improved award in spring while Amir Jackson got one of the perfectly named Channing Crowder Headhunter Awards, so maybe we’ll see something more from the position than we’ve seen yet. They’ll have to prove it on the field; there is no benefit of the doubt right now in April.
Even with some question marks about how effective the tight end spot will be, Florida’s offense is set up for success. A star in the making at quarterback. A deep and highly effective running back room. A deep, deep receiver room. An experienced, veteran offensive line. This is it, folks. This is what you want to see.
Napier’s offenses have performed in a narrow range so far in Gainesville. Last year’s team scored 28.3 points per game, almost exactly matching the 28.4 points per game from 2023. Napier’s first UF team averaged 29.5 per contest, though it grows to 31.8 if you toss out the bowl and only look at games with Anthony Richardson.
Even at Louisiana, only one of Napier’s teams as a head coach has gotten above the 33.6 PPG that his 2020 team had: the 37.9 of his second Ragin’ Cajuns squad in 2019. The 2018 and 2021 teams were between 31 and 32, and even with the ’20 team going above 32 PPG, that was a season in which offenses were ahead of defenses pretty much across the board in the sport.
Napier has yet to prove that he can put together a consistently dynamic offense. Even in the four-game stretch run a year ago, Florida didn’t crack 30 on Ole Miss or LSU, put just 31 on a 2-10 FSU, and managed 33 against Tulane. Good wins, all, but not because of truly big numbers going up on the scoreboard.
It matters, because no head coach with an offensive background has won the SEC at under 35 points per game scored since Urban Meyer in 2006. It’s been two decades. Even 2011 LSU, helmed by former offensive lineman and line coach Les Miles, got to 35.7 per contest.
The 2023 Michigan team that manballed its way to a national title put up 35.9 per game. The 2021 Georgia team with an all-timer of a defense scored 38.6 PPG, and the follow-up in ’22 went over 41 a game. We don’t see as many video game numbers as we used to 5-7 years ago, but scoring more than every Napier team but one has done still is a requirement to take home hardware.
As long as Napier is correct about Lagway’s health, all the pieces are there for the Gators to have a high-powered offense. It’s put up or shut up time for Napier as an offensive architect.