This year is Florida’s best chance to beat Georgia since 2020. I would’ve said since 2021 if Dan Mullen had made an Alabama-like game plan instead of using the contest to prove a point about starting quarterback selection, but that’s history now.
That doesn’t mean UF is likely to win in Jacksonville. UGA is still the odds-on favorite, and for good reason. Kirby Smart has had his program humming at a high level for the better part of a decade now. Billy Napier only began to figure out how to get out of his own way after this season began, and it’s still very much an ongoing process.
It’s a cliche to pin everything on quarterback play in football these days, but this game really does hinge on it. Traditionally with the Florida series with Tennessee and Georgia, folks love to say that whoever runs the best will win. Really, though, it’s the quarterbacks who will decide this one.
DJ Lagway’s deep ball is a threat that the Bulldogs haven’t had to worry about for a long time. Anthony Richardson liked to throw some, but he wasn’t as accurate on them as Lagway is. It’s been, again, since 2020 with Kyle Trask that Smart’s defense has had to account for covering deep in the way it will tomorrow.
In some ways, the runs-and-bombs offense that Napier largely employed against Kentucky is the optimal one if the execution is there. Lagway has been intercepted on shorter throws already this year, and he’s had even more broken up while trying to fit a ball into too tight a window.
Turning it over is always the worst thing a player can do, but it’s particularly relevant in this year’s Cocktail Party. Lagway needs to avoid the big freshman mistake, or at least commit it while arm-punting, and not giving the Bulldogs favorable field position.
Georgia’s offense at times gets stuck getting out of third gear. When the team was running up a 23-0 halftime lead at Texas, it was doing so largely because of defense (turnovers gained) and special teams (a nice punt return). UGA’s scoring drives prior to intermission were:
- 4 plays, 13 yards, TD
- 7 plays, 13 yards, 33-yard FG
- 3 plays, 34 yards, TD
- 7 plays, 25 yards, 48-yard FG
- 4 plays, 4 yards, 44-yard field goal
Now, you can’t fault the offense for starting close to the end zone. That’s the dream for an offense. And the final of those drives was running up against the end of the half, so ambition was capped by situation. Plus, all four of the team’s scoring drives in their furious second half comeback against Alabama were of 67 yards or longer.
But still, only the third of those series in the first half in Austin was one where you’d say the offense actually got moving well. After the first play, it was a 17-yard completion and a 15-yard run to cap it off. It’s also of note that the furious second-half comeback against Bama was necessary in part due to the offense doing essentially nothing outside of a single long touchdown drive before the break.
The issues stem from a less-effective run game than normal and Carson Beck not replicating his success of a year ago. UGA’s top two running backs, Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier, have combined for 5.09 yards per carry so far this year. There are still plenty of games to go, but that’d be the lowest YPC rate for the top two backs in the Smart era. Etienne has often had to use every ounce of his escapability just to avoid losing yards.
Beck also appears to be missing Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey. This makes sense, even as both missed time and often played hurt in 2023. Bowers was a generational talent and is second in the NFL in catches at present as a rookie, and McConkey has started six-of-seven games for the Chargers. These were good players.
Beck was noticeably less effective targeting anyone else a year ago. As UGA didn’t replace Bowers or McConkey with anyone of similar quality, his numbers have declined more this year. The following target stats are from SEC Stat Cat, most of the rest come from cfbstats.com, and I personally watched all of Beck’s 2023 picks to see who he was targeting on each.
| Player | Att | Comp | Pct | Yds | YPA | TD Pct | INT Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Beck to BB/McC | 109 | 86 | 78.9% | 1,190 | 10.9 | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023 Beck, no BB/McC | 308 | 216 | 70.1% | 2,751 | 8.9 | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| 2024 Beck | 250 | 165 | 66.0% | 1,993 | 8.0 | 6.0% | 3.2% |
Florida would be in excellent shape to help Beck’s relative slide along if Jason Marshall was healthy, as having both him and Devin Moore would be a nightmare for the Bulldog passing game. As it is, Moore and some combination of Dijon Johnson and others will do reasonably well anyway. Aaron Gates coming along at Star makes it all the better.
The picture for a Florida win starts to become clear. Lagway takes care of the ball and hits enough deep shots to make the defense not load up the area within ten yards of the line of scrimmage. Doing so creates space for the Gator running game, which also selectively uses Lagway’s mobility to open things up even more for the Jadan Baugh and the other backs.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia’s rushing game continues to struggle to make headway. Beck has an up-and-down day, and, like he did against each of Alabama, Mississippi State, and Texas, he tosses multiple interceptions.
On special teams, Florida avoids a big mistake like it had before the half against Tennessee (12 men penalty) and Kentucky (kickoff return touchdown). Maybe it gets a big play or two, like a long Chimere Dike return or a 50+ yard field goal from Trey Smack.
Perhaps most importantly, Napier has a good coaching day like he did against Kentucky. He doesn’t fall into his normal play-calling ruts, and he doesn’t make questionable in-game decisions like he did in Knoxville.
There are a lot of “ifs” in there, but it’s a picture that we’ve seen all the parts of already this season. UGA is the proper betting favorite, but Florida absolutely can put together a winning formula and shock the country in Jacksonville.