After I provided my 2024 preseason predictions back in August, a poster on Gator Country asked me to keep the thread pinned so everyone could look back on it at the end of the season. Instead, I offered to write an article evaluating how accurate my prediction was.
Here’s my original preseason record prediction.
I predicted Florida to go 7-5 in the regular season, which is what the Gators finished at after an impressive run at the end of the year. It was a weird season in Gainesville as Florida suffered multiple injuries at quarterback and had to play three quarterbacks over 100 snaps. Florida’s defense also had a significant turnaround after their first bye week, which was more like the defense I was expecting to see in 2024.
Let’s look at what I predicted for each game.
Florida vs Miami: Win
My season prediction got off to a rough start as Miami dominated Florida in the season opener. At this point, I thought my prediction was going to be wildly incorrect as the Gators were as unprepared as you could be in week one. One thing I was way off about was Cam Ward. Previously in his career he had struggled on the road, and I thought he wouldn’t be at his best inside a sold-out Swamp, a venue he has never played at. I was very wrong as he was terrific against the Gators’ defense and took the crowd completely out of the game. He was terrific all season too and is a likely Heisman finalist. I stated in my preview that if Florida can hold their own in the trenches, they’ll pull out the win. The Gators couldn’t get anything going in the run game outside of a long touchdown run from Montrell Johnson and couldn’t get pressure on Ward in the pocket.
Florida vs Samford: Win
DJ Lagway got his first career start vs Samford. Lagway was spectacular as he threw for 456 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-7 win in week two.
Florida vs Texas A&M: Loss
Florida lost this game as I predicted, but I was expecting it to be a much closer game. Texas A&M was one of the wildcard teams in the SEC this season, and I thought they outperformed expectations although their season ended with back-to-back losses to Auburn and Texas. The Gators fell victim to a ‘backup’ quarterback in this game, but he turned out to be the more effective QB down the stretch compared to Conner Weigman.
Florida at Mississippi State: Win
This fell under the ‘must win’ game in my preseason article, and that proved to be even more true after Florida’s 1-2 start. The Gators took care of business on the road using both Mertz and Lagway at quarterback.
Florida vs UCF: Win
The reports out of UCF’s camp were not positive in regard to KJ Jefferson, and he was simply not very productive against Florida, tossing for just 165 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. The Gators did a much better job of containing Jefferson than they did in 2023, holding him to just 19 rushing yards and a long of five. UCF ended up having a huge quarterback problem that haunted them in 2024.
Florida at Tennessee: Loss
This was a game Florida should have won. QB Nico Iamaleava was not as effective this season as I thought he’d be. Tennessee won a close one after Graham Mertz suffered a torn ACL with the Gators leading. Even with Lagway thrown into the game, the Gators had their chance to win down the stretch, but ending up losing in overtime. Too many mistakes for Florida in this game.
Florida vs Kentucky: Win
This game was one that I was back and forth on in the preseason, because Mark Stoops had got the best of Billy Napier through two seasons. I went with Florida simply because they were more talented. The Gators ended up getting a statement 48-20 win.
Florida vs Georgia: Loss
The biggest ‘what if’ game of the season. Florida was leading 10-3 with the ball when DJ Lagway suffered a hamstring injury in the second quarter that sidelined him for the remainder of the game. Carson Beck was not as effective this season without his top weapons from 2023. I predicted a Georgia win, but this game was closer than I thought it would be, especially with a walk-on QB playing for nearly three quarters.
Florida at Texas: Loss
The Longhorns were simply too much for Florida to handle with Aidan Warner at QB. I didn’t think this game would be particularly close as I only had Florida scoring seven points in the contest. But the defense gave their worst effort of the season, allowing 49 points in the game. Texas had no problem replacing their receivers from 2023.
Florida vs LSU: Win
I thought LSU was overrated entering the 2024 season as replacing Heisman winner Jayden Daniels is no easy task. I also didn’t think the Tigers did enough to fix their defense in the offseason, which is why I predicted Florida to upset LSU. Both turned out to be true this season. Garrett Nussmeier’s lack of athleticism hurt the Tigers as Florida’s defensive line was able to get to him often.
Florida vs Ole Miss: Loss
I predicted Florida to lose to Ole Miss before the season and in the days before the game. I thought Ole Miss’s defensive line would be too much for Florida to handle. Ole Miss was my SEC Championship sleeper team, but the Gators potentially killed Ole Miss’s chances at something greater, a National Championship. This was one of my two misses this season.
Florida at FSU: Win
I wrote preseason that Florida State would be noticeably worse in 2024, which is why I liked the Gators in this matchup. However, nobody expected the Seminoles to be as bad as they were. I noted on their quarterback and wide receiver problems, which I heard a bunch about from people who were close to the program. This win was not the ‘upset’ it was expected to be in the preseason.