With fall camp wrapping up on Wednesday, it’s time for me to predict Florida’s 2025 record. Billy Napier holds a 19-19 record through three seasons at UF and is coming off an 8-5 season including a bowl game victory over Tulane. The Gators will start the season ranked No.15th in the AP Poll, which is the first time Florida has opened a season ranked since 2021.
This is far and away the most talented team Billy Napier has put together at UF. Led by sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway, it feels as if the Gators should be able to compete in just about every game on the schedule, which you couldn’t say in previous years. The Gators are set to face seven teams ranked inside the preseason top 25 including four in the top ten.
MY PREDICTION: Florida will go 9-3 in the 2025 regular season.
Let’s take a look at my game-by-game predictions.
Florida vs Long Island: Win
We won’t learn anything about Florida in their week one victory over Long Island as the Sharks very well be the worst team to ever step foot in the Swamp. However, it gives Florida the opportunity to work a lot of guys into a game early in the season. And with a few guys banged up after fall camp, it might be a good thing Florida starts with an opponent from the Northeast Conference.
Florida vs South Florida: Win
A lot of fans are looking ahead to the LSU game, which I think is a mistake. The last time USF came into the Swamp, Florida squeaked out a 31-28 victory back in 2022. I’m not saying the Gators won’t win easily in 2025, but the Bulls are a talented team with a good head coach in Alex Golesh. USF’s quarterback, Byrum Brown, is better than multiple SEC quarterbacks Florida will face this season. We will have a better read on USF’s team after week one as they open up with No.25 Boise State. I don’t envision this Florida roster taking USF lightly as they cruise to victory.
Florida at LSU: Loss
Week three’s matchup vs LSU could be Florida’s toughest game of the season given it’s a night game in Death Valley. The Tigers will be looking for revenge after Florida upset them 27-16 in Gainesville last season. LSU is led by senior quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who has the second-best odds to hoist the Heisman Trophy after throwing for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2024. Sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway has only started in one road game in his career, and it came against a terrible FSU team. For that reason I think LSU beats the Gators.
Florida at Miami: Win
Florida at Miami could be the most important game on the Gators’ schedule. I know it’s not an SEC team, but with Texas and Texas A&M on deck, the Gators must pull this one out against an in-state rival. The Hurricanes may have the best offensive line in all of college football while Florida may have the most experienced. Miami replaced former No.1 NFL Draft pick Cam Ward with Carson Beck, a quarterback the Gators have faced twice when he was at Georgia. This game is surely going to be a battle in the trenches. It’s as close to a 50-50 game as it gets on paper. Early odds predict that Miami will be 2.5-point favorites. I like Florida to get the win on the road with a sizeable amount of Florida fans in attendance.
Florida vs Texas: Loss
DJ Lagway vs Arch Manning might be one of the most anticipated regular season matchups in recent history. While Manning is mostly unproven, I think he has the most upside among any quarterback Florida faces this year. The Gators suffer their only home loss of the 2025 season to the preseason No.1 Longhorns.
Florida at Texas A&M: Loss
The Aggies have an exciting young quarterback as well in Marcel Reed. If he can improve as a passer in 2025, Texas A&M’s offense is going to be dangerous. The Aggies could be one of the best rushing offenses in all of college football given Reed’s unique athletic traits. I’m a huge fan of head coach Mike Elko and think this will be a tough game to win at Kyle Field.
Florida vs Mississippi State: Win
The Gators should take care of business at home vs. Mississippi State; a team they beat 45-28 last season. With an improved Florida defense, I don’t see this game being particularly close.
Florida vs Georgia (neutral site): Win
My true upset pick of the 2025 season is Florida beating Georgia for the first time under Billy Napier. The Gators led vs Georgia last year when DJ Lagway went down with a hamstring injury, and I believe this is the year they get the job done. I don’t believe Gunner Stockton is the answer at quarterback for the Bulldogs and the Gators have shrunk the talent gap in 2025.
Florida at Kentucky: Win
Kentucky on the road has not been kind to Florida in recent years, but the Wildcats may be the worst team in the SEC in 2025. Kentucky lost their top two receivers in the portal this offseason and didn’t answer the question mark at quarterback.
Florida at Ole Miss: Win
Ole Miss will break in new quarterback, and former Gator commit, Austin Simmons in 2025 after Jaxson Dart left for the NFL. I’m higher on Simmons then most, but ultimately I think their defense takes a step back. Florida rides a four-game winning streak with a victory in Oxford.
Florida vs Tennessee: Win
Tennessee added App State QB Joey Aguilar in the offseason, who was recently named the Vols’ starting quarterback. I listed Aguilar as the 8th best quarterback Florida will face in 2025. Tennessee also lost two of their best defensive players in defensive lineman James Pearce Jr. and Omarr Notman-Lott to the NFL Draft. I like Lagway to make more explosive plays than Aguilar, and for the Gators to get revenge on last season’s heartbreaking loss.
Florida vs Florida State: Win
The Gators end the 2025 regular season campaign with a win over rival Florida State. I expect FSU to be better after a 2-10 2024 season, but how could you not? I don’t see their roster as a threat to Florida’s as there’s still serious question marks along the offensive line.