With Florida football starting Miami prep on Thursday, it’s time for me to give my 2024 record prediction for the Gators. Head Coach Billy Napier holds an 11-14 record through his first two seasons at UF and needs to show significant improvement on the gridiron in year three. The Gators are set to face a daunting schedule, which includes eight teams ranked inside the AP top 25 poll and four in the top 10.
However, the Gators have more talent and depth in year three compared to the first two seasons under Napier. Florida hired three defensive coaches this offseason in an effort to fix a miserably bad defense and did a nice job acquiring talent at most positions on defense.
The key to the Gators 2024 season is the trenches. If Florida is decent on both the offensive and defensive line, they might just surprise some people this year with the talent they have surrounding the big boys.
I have been back and forth between a 6-6 and 7-5 prediction, but I’ve landed on the latter.
My prediction: Florida will go 7-5 in the 2024 regular season.
Let’s take a look at my game-by-game predictions.
Florida vs Miami: Win
I have Florida beating Miami to open the season in a close game. Miami has real secondary concerns and a quarterback in Cam Ward that has never played at a venue like The Swamp in his collegiate career. If Florida can simply hold their own in the trenches, they will come out on top. This is arguably the biggest game of Florida’s season.
Florida vs Samford: Win
There’s not much to say on this one, if Florida can’t beat Samford in week two then my season prediction will be the laughing stock of the Gator Country message boards.
Florida vs Texas A&M: Loss
TAMU lost a ton of talent in the portal but hired what I believe to be a great head coach in Mike Elko from Duke. The Aggies are one of those teams that nobody really knows what to expect from in year one under Elko. Texas A&M has redshirt sophomore quarterback Connor Weigman, who holds a 16-2 touchdown to interception ratio across nine games played. Before suffering a season ending injury last season, Weigman was the 6th highest graded QB in the FBS, according to Pro Football Focus. Many NFL mock drafts have him being selected in the first-round next season. This game could go either way, like most of the games on Florida’s schedule. Talent has never really been the issue for the Aggies, and I think they can compete under Elko.
Florida at Mississippi State: Win
This game falls under the ‘must win’ category on Florida’s schedule. The Bulldogs are relying on a ton of transfer portal players in 2024 and I think the Gators’ roster has more depth and stability.
Florida vs UCF: Win
The return of KJ Jefferson to The Swamp might cause PTSD for Gator fans, but I think Florida comes out on top. UCF is really strong on the defensive line which might cause Florida some trouble up front, but if the Gators are an improved tackling team and can wrap up KJ Jefferson, they will be victorious.
Florida at Tennessee: Loss
Florida defeated Tennessee 29-16 last season but now will travel to Knoxville. The Volunteers returned quite a few pieces including one of the top 2026 NFL quarterback prospects in Nico Iamaleava and defensive lineman James Pearce Jr, who many believe could be the No.1 pick in 2025.
Florida vs Kentucky: Win
There’s no way around it, Mark Stoops has got the best of Billy Napier through two seasons. Kentucky will break in an inexperienced quarterback in Brock Vandagriff, who transferred from Georgia this offseason. But let me remind you, Kentucky hasn’t needed good quarterback play to beat Florida these last two seasons. In 2023, Florida got smacked around despite Devin Leary throwing for 69 yards. In 2022, Florida lost a close game with a pretty average performance from Will Levis, who threw one touchdown and one pick with 202 passing yards.
Still, Florida has more talent than Kentucky and need to be able to win this game at home. Truthfully, this is a game that has be concerned leading into the season, but I’m predicting a win for now.
Florida vs Georgia: Loss
Kirby Smart is one of the best coaches in college football and their talent level remains superior to Florida’s. Carson Beck is one of the top quarterbacks in the country but will have to find a way to succeed without his top two weapons last season in Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey.
Florida at Texas: Loss
Texas convinced Quinn Ewers to come back and play another season, which was critical for the Longhorns. Texas did lose two receivers to the NFL draft this offseason but landed Isaiah Bond in the portal. The Longhorns will be too much for the Gators to handle on the road.
Florida vs LSU: Win
In two years under Napier, Florida has pulled off a win against a team they had no business beating. In 2022 it was Pac-12 Champion Utah and in 2023 it was a nine-win Tennessee team. I believe that team for UF this year is LSU. The Tigers start the season ranked No.13 but have to replace Heisman winning quarterback Jayden Daniels. Presumed starter Garrett Nussmeier has played fine in minimal opportunities over the years, but one thing is for certain, he is not Jayden Daniels. I’m also not convinced LSU did enough to fix their defense in 2024.
Florida vs Ole Miss: Loss
Lane Kiffin did a phenomenal job in the transfer portal this offseason, potentially adding double digit starters to the roster. I like Ole Miss to compete for an SEC Championship this season.
Florida at FSU: Win
I think it’s safe to assume FSU is going to be noticeably worse in 2024 compared to last season’s squad. The Noles should have a strong running game once again, but I question their ability to be effective in the passing game. Transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is a guy that’s not going to lose you a game but he won’t go out and win you a game either. They also have question marks at receiver. I like Florida to pull off an ‘upset’ to end the season.