Despite being located less than two hours apart, Florida and UCF have only played each other twice before, with the last meeting coming in 2006.
And yet, somehow, their meeting in the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa on Thursday night feels like a rivalry game.
Between UCF’s controversial claim of the 2017 national championship and the schools’ inability to agree on the terms for a regular-season series for a while, there’s way more animosity between the two fan bases than you would normally expect for a game between a Power Five blueblood and a Group of Five team.
Here are five keys for the Gators (6-6, 2-6 SEC) to avoid being the cause for another victory parade in Orlando. As always, my score prediction is at the end.
1. Run the ball well
Emory Jones probably isn’t going to throw for 300 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. That’s just not the type of player that he is. He’s had major issues with turnovers this season, and he’s struggled just about every time that the Gators have become overly reliant on him.
He’s the type of quarterback that needs a strong running game to keep defenses off balance and allow him to make simple reads.
Fortunately for them, stopping the run is UCF’s biggest weakness on defense, as they rank 72nd in the FBS in rushing defense.
Play-caller Garrick McGee needs to feed Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis the ball about 35 times, and the veteran offensive line needs to open up holes for them the way that they did earlier in the year.
If those two things happen, Florida should score plenty of points and wear down the Knights’ defense, especially since they run an up-tempo offense.
2. Take care of the ball
While running the ball effectively will help, Jones is still probably going to have to throw at least 20-25 passes. He’s turned the ball over at least once in nine of his 11 starts, with four multi-turnover games. He threw three interceptions in the first half against Florida State before getting benched.
This time, Anthony Richardson won’t be available to save the day. They’re going to have to stick with Jones no matter how poorly he plays. They can’t afford to have Jones give away free points to an offense that’s going to be hard enough to stop to begin with. And if they get behind, that means they’ll likely have to throw the ball more, which could lead to more turnovers.
The Gators need Jones to be as much of a non-factor in this game as possible.
3. Stop the run
With UCF (8-4, 5-3 American Athletic) starting a freshman quarterback, they’ve become a run-heavy team. They rank second in the American Athletic Conference and 35th in the country in rushing. Isaiah Bowser weighs 225 pounds and runs like a tank, so you’ve got to be very physical and determined to bring him down. Johnny Richardson is only 5-foot-7 but is extremely shifty.
The Gators’ front-seven has been very inconsistent at stopping the run. They started off the year extremely well, went through a three-game stretch where they gave up nearly 800 yards and six touchdowns toward the middle of the season and then played better again in their final three games.
The defensive line needs to be stout at the point of attack and do a good job of setting the edge, tasks that will prove much more challenging without Zachary Carter. Their isle of misfit toys that they call a linebacking corps needs to make those one-on-one tackles in space.
If they force UCF to throw the ball more than they would like to and slow down their tempo, they shouldn’t have much trouble stopping them. If they let the Knights run at will, they’re going to give up 40-plus points.
4. Eliminate the penalties
For the first three years of Dan Mullen’s tenure, the Gators did a good job of not committing many penalties. As with many aspects of the program this year, their discipline took a nosedive. They’ve committed at least eight penalties in half of their games. They’ve been flagged for 12 or more penalties on three occasions, including two of their last three games.
And it’s not like most of them have been ticky-tacky pass interference calls, either. Their eight false starts were probably the difference between winning and losing at Kentucky. They’ve had late hits that have extended drives, holding calls that have stalled offensive progress and pass interference penalties that were completely unnecessary because the ball had no shot of being caught anyway.
Basically, every time that the Gators make a good play, you have to wait about five seconds to make sure there’s not a flag before celebrating.
They’ve got to avoid those silly mistakes in this game.
5. Play with passion
With the coaching transition taking place and the disappointment that this season has brought, it’s very easy to see a scenario where the Gators look completely disinterested and get smacked around Raymond James Stadium for 3 ½ hours like they did in the Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma last year.
This game is one of the biggest games in UCF history. This is a chance for them to validate all of that “2017 National Champions” and “Power Six conference” stuff. Yes, this Florida team is a shell of what it was at the beginning of the year, but that’s not going to stop UCF from celebrating like they just won the Super Bowl if they beat them.
Plus, it sounds like the crowd will be pro-UCF. The Gators need to match the intensity that UCF is going to bring to win this game.
Score prediction
UCF 34, Florida 24
Bowl games often come down to which team wants to be there more. For the reasons that I mentioned above, that advantage goes to UCF.
The Knights are going to give the Gators fits with their tempo and put together a solid offensive game. On the other side, UF’s offensive line will continue to struggle to get much going in the running game, which will cause the Gators to rely on Jones’ right arm to win the game. We’ve seen how that scenario plays out.