Last year, Florida defeated Georgia 44-28 to snap their three-game losing streak in the series and all but clinch the SEC East title.
Since then, the programs have gone in polar opposite directions. Georgia has gone 11-0 and beaten the opposition by an average score of 38-11. The Gators, meanwhile, are just 8-6 since then, including 0-3 against top-25 foes. They’re just 2-6 in their last eight games against Power Five opponents.
When the Gators meet the No. 1 Bulldogs (7-0, 5-0 SEC) on Saturday in Jacksonville, they’ll have a chance to get the program heading in the right direction again and give their fans at least one positive thing to remember about this season.
Here are five things that the Gators (4-3, 2-3) must do to pull off the upset win as well as my score prediction.
1. Stop the run
It might sound overly simplistic, but this is the single biggest key to the game for the Gators. If they allow the Bulldogs to rush for more than 300 yards like they did against LSU two weeks ago, everything else on this list will be irrelevant.
While defensive coordinator Todd Grantham bears most of the responsibility for fixing the run defense issues, the linebackers need to fill their gaps quicker, too. It felt like they were always a split-second late against LSU.
If Georgia’s able to run the ball efficiently, they will score a bunch of points and limit the number of possessions Florida’s offense will get against an already dominant defense.
Georgia does have some uncertainty at quarterback, so it’s important that the Gators force Stetson Bennett and/or JT Daniels to throw pressure-packed passes in the second half, something that hasn’t happened since their opener against Clemson.
If Florida can hold Georgia under 200 rushing yards, they’ll have a chance.
2. Turn AR-15 loose
I think Emory Jones is a solid quarterback, and I think he’s been unfairly blamed for some of the Gators’ issues this season.
That being said, Jones has mostly been a nonfactor in the outcome of games this season. He won’t win the Gators many games, but he won’t lose them many, either. Dan Mullen knows what his limitations are and can scheme around them, which allows Jones to methodically lead the Gators down the field via runs and short passes.
I just don’t think that type of game plan is going to work this week. Georgia’s defense is giving up 6.6 points and 208.3 total yards per game. Florida – or just about anybody, for that matter – probably won’t be able to string together 10- or 12-play touchdown drives against them.
But, they might be able to score against UGA with some explosive plays, and that’s where Anthony Richardson comes in.
Richardson is equipped with a strong arm, quick decision-making, accuracy and a gunslinger mentality. He’s a much better deep-ball thrower than Jones, and he’s also been a more explosive runner with his ability to run past, through or over defenders.
The only way you’re going to beat Georgia’s brigade of five-stars is with a special performance from your quarterback that will still be talked about years from now. Richardson is more likely to have that type of game than Jones, so Mullen needs to turn him loose.
3. Take advantage of every scoring opportunity
This goes right along with what I said in the last section. Georgia’s defense isn’t going to give the Gators many scoring opportunities, so it’s imperative that they score every time that they get a chance.
They cannot have dropped passes, turnovers or penalties that wipe out big gains. When they get in the red zone, they need to come away with touchdowns and not field goals.
Sloppiness has been one of the hallmarks of this Gators team in all phases of the game, and that cannot continue this week for them to have a chance.
4. Defend the deep ball
While Georgia’s passing game leaves something to be desired, Bennett and Daniels do excel at throwing deep balls.
They have some speedy targets to throw to, including Jermaine Burton, Adonai Mitchell, Kearis Jackson and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint.
Georgia’s going to try to suck the defense up with their strong running game and then take advantage of the one-on-one matchups on the perimeter. That’s been their offensive formula throughout Kirby Smart’s tenure, and Kaiir Elam, Avery Helm and Jason Marshall need to be up for the challenge.
UF’s secondary has done a better job of defending the deep ball in their last few games after some early struggles, but this will be their biggest test since the Tennessee game.
The defense has a history of falling apart in one area after cleaning up their issues in another area under Grantham. They can’t allow that to happen again this week.
5. Make Georgia feel the pressure
The Bulldogs have only played in one game that was decided by fewer than 20 points since the Clemson game. Many of their starters haven’t played a bunch of snaps in the second halves of games. They haven’t had to deal with the stress and pressure that come with playing in a one-score game in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, the Gators have played in three games that have come down to the final possession. Yes, they lost all three of those games, but they should still be more comfortable with playing in a tight game than Georgia.
Plus, all of the pressure in this game is on Georgia. They’re supposed to beat the Gators by 30 points, go undefeated and win the school’s first national championship since 1980.
That’s why it’s important that the Gators get off to a fast start and enter the fourth quarter either with the lead or within striking distance. The longer this game remains close, the more likely it becomes that Georgia tightens up and starts to make some uncharacteristic mistakes.
Score prediction
Georgia 38, Florida 17
Georgia is the better team, and I’m not sure what to expect from the Gators with all of the outside noise going on. So, I have to pick the Bulldogs to win comfortably.
However, I don’t get the sense that this Florida team has thrown in the towel, so I don’t see a repeat of 2017 happening where the Gators fell behind 21-0 before all of the fans were even in their seats.
The Gators will keep this close in the first half, but, ultimately, they’ll make too many mistakes on offense and have too much trouble stopping Georgia’s rushing attack to have a chance to win.