The vibe around Florida football has noticeably changed since the open date. The program feels like it’s finally on an upward trajectory in a way that it hadn’t previously.
It’s odd to say that the 42-20 loss was kind of encouraging while the 41-24 and 38-6 wins felt vaguely like disappointments, but it’s true. Or, at least, the latter felt like money left on the table more than they were disappointing. That’s how quickly things can shift during a transitional year.
The Gators could’ve folded when down 28-3 at the half against Georgia, but they battled back to pull within 28-20. They couldn’t sustain it because UGA is still a much better team, but it made a statement. Then after a half of more awful defensive performance against Texas A&M, the Gators haven’t allowed any offensive points in the last six quarters. The fake punt touchdown for South Carolina should count against special teams, keeping the defense’s slate clean for a game and a half. Plus, the one turnover the offense committed in any of those games came deep into garbage time last weekend.
Florida could’ve blown the Aggies out with a second half-like defensive performance from the start. They also missed a short field goal and got stuffed on fourth down at the goal line in that second half. Then against the Gamecocks, mishaps on field goal attempts following rough offensive execution kept the Gators from breaking 40. The team remains a work in progress.
But the upswing in play combined with the cathartic flip of high 4-star quarterback recruit Jaden Rashada from Miami makes it feel like UF has real forward momentum. Maybe things they’ve been practicing have really begun to pay off. Maybe some of the players who have left the program were dragging down the culture. Maybe the third quarter against Georgia combined with the halftime turnaround at A&M have made believers out of skeptics.
It could be some, all, or none of that. It also could just be that the level of competition changed.
There is no excuse for the poor defensive play against USF, which has the No. 48 offense in the country per the SP+ advanced stats system. However, a lot of the other results have tracked the current ratings.
Kentucky has the No. 84 SP+ offense. The Gators allowed 19 offensive points to the Wildcats, but one touchdown with a failed two point try and one field goal came on drives of six yards (after a pick) and 19 yards (turnover on downs), respectively. It’s hard to pin those on the defense, so that’s really more like only ten points given up by the defense alone.
Mizzou has the No. 89 SP+ offense. UF allowed 17 points, but three of them came on a 21-yard field goal drive following a fumble. By holding the Tigers to merely a field goal instead of a touchdown, that’s a good result for the defense even as it allowed points. They only gave up 14 offensive points on extended drives.
As for recently, Texas A&M now has the No. 82 offense. They’ve been falling for a while after having a much higher preseason projection, so really they probably are worse than that. Blanking the Aggies after the break was still a great result, but it came after allowing 24 points in the first half. It also required Haynes King to miss a lot of receivers, and for Jimbo to pull a classic Jimbo and forget to hand off to his quite productive running back Devon Achane in favor of the dink and dunk game.
Shutting out the South Carolina offense is the best of these outcomes I’ve highlighted here. The Gamecocks have the No. 58 SP+ offense, but they never threatened to score the traditional way. Florida held them to 2.7 yards per play when you remove the fake punt, they forced three turnovers, and Carolina never had a first down inside the UF 45-yard-line. It was an actual dominant performance no matter how you slice it.
It does indeed look like the defense is getting more aggressive and is getting home more often on pressures. When it comes to outperforming based on opponent, the unit has a one-game streak in that regard.
The Gator offense is a different story. USF is the only truly bad FBS defense they’ve faced. And I do mean truly bad, as the Bulls sit 131st in SP+ defense.
South Carolina is the next-worst they’ve seen at No. 44 overall. It was a favorable matchup since the Gamecocks have a good pass defense and a not-so-good run defense, but UF still rolled up more than 200 yards of offense and 21 points in the first quarter alone. They finished with an astonishing 374 yards on the ground.
The offense really struggled against UK and Georgia, but both have top ten SP+ defenses. UGA is No. 2 overall, in fact. Anthony Richardson also had a temporary crisis of confidence in that UK game and the next versus USF that thankfully hasn’t fully come back since. If it did to any degree, it was in the Missouri game where the team needed ten early points off of turnovers (seven being non-offensive entirely) to get to 24. Mizzou has the No. 31 SP+ defense, so it’s not like it was against a tissue paper unit.
Pounding South Carolina and dropping 41 on Texas A&M and its No. 29 SP+ defense are among the best opponent-adjusted efforts of the season. Scoring 35 on LSU and its No. 18 SP+ defense is also in the running.
The thing that sticks out most here is that the last two games are both among the best offensive and defensive performances. Well, the last game and a half on defense anyway. The LSU game was a high point for the offense but very much not for the defense. The inverse is true for the Kentucky and Missouri outings.
If you wanted to see a team putting things together, it would look like the past few weeks. It’s not all upward movement all at once, especially not after the way UF’s special teams got worked by the Gamecocks.
It might look like more improvement against Vanderbilt this weekend, although I would brace for a slow start. Between a cold forecasted temperature, the noon Eastern kick at 11 am local time, and the sleepiness that often comes from playing at Vandy, and it’ll be conditions that have been like Kryptonite for past Florida teams. If the Gators can play well from the jump, that alone will be a good sign.
Still though, VU is the first opponent since USF to have neither an offense or defense in the top 50 in SP+. The overwhelming likelihood is a comfortable win in the end. And even if it’s close? No less than the 1996 team beat a dreadful Vanderbilt team by a score of 28-21 in Nashville on a cold day. Bad performances in spots like this can happen.
The true test of the program’s momentum won’t come until Black Friday when the Gators play at FSU. The Seminoles are improved but aren’t elite by any stretch, and they’re also on their own hot streak against weaker conference competition. How things go in Tallahassee will be a clearer measure of how much Florida has improved than what goes on in Nashville this weekend.
Nevertheless, Florida’s offense and defense have generally performed better against worse competition and vice versa. There are notable exceptions like the USF game or the seeming abject helplessness the defense displayed against LSU and for three quarters of the Georgia game.
They have finally started churning out higher end performances at the same time, but it’s too early to say definitively that they’ve turned the corner for good. By the end of the month, we’ll have a much clearer picture on that.