Florida is half a team right now, with an offense averaging over 40 points per game but a defense allowing more than 30. The numbers you’re about to see might cause you some whiplash, so just prepare yourself before soldiering on.
This review is based on Bill Connelly’s Five Factors of winning, and sacks are counted as pass plays.
Explosiveness
Everyone has a different definition for what counts as an “explosive play”, but I go with runs of at least 12 yards and passes of at least 16 yards.
| Team | Runs 12+ | Pct. | Passes 16+ | Pct. | Explosive Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 0 | 0.0% | 10 | 38.5% | 22.2% |
| Texas A&M | 5 | 14.3% | 5 | 17.2% | 15.6% |
For the second straight week, UF had no explosive run game. Kyle Trask had one surprise explosive run against South Carolina, but that was it. This week, Nay’Quan Wright had carries of ten and 11 yards but that was it for double-digit yards on rushes. The run game is not getting stuffed all the time anymore, but no one is breaking anything.
The Florida passing game is only getting more explosive with time, and this despite Kyle Pitts having a muted game. The rate went from 26.8% against Ole Miss to 29.2% against South Carolina to now a shade under 40% against the Aggies.
The Gator defense’s strategy to my eye has been trying to limit explosive plays. They didn’t do it in the run, as A&M bulldozed UF’s fronts to allow for some big runs by Isaiah Spiller. UF’s pass defense, for whatever it’s worth, only allowed an explosive pass rate 2.6 percentage points above what Alabama did against the Aggies.
Efficiency
The main measure here is success rate. Watch this short video if you need to brush up on it.
| Team | Run SR | Pass SR | Overall SR | Red Zone SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 39.1% | 60.6% | 51.8% | 56.3% |
| Texas A&M | 57.9% | 63.9% | 60.8% | 50.0% |
UF’s rushing success rate is below average, but Trask is the entire story there. All four of his non-sack carries were not success plays. The three running backs and Kadarius Toney together had a rushing success rate of 47.4%, which is comfortably above average if not as absurdly good as the passing success rate.
Both of Texas A&M’s success rates are higher than what UF allowed to Ole Miss, if you can believe it (you can). Kellen Mond’s passing success rate was still 11 percentage points behind Joe Burrow’s 75% against the Gators from a year ago, though. If it’s any consolation (it’s not), UF this year hasn’t made anyone look as good as it did the eventual 2019 Heisman winner.
| Team | 1Q SR | 2Q SR | 3Q SR | 4Q SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 54.5% | 63.6% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Texas A&M | 60.0% | 54.2% | 63.6% | 66.7% |
Florida only ran nine plays in the third quarter, and a third down conversion and Toney’s 37-yard touchdown catch were the only success plays in it. Jimbo Fisher finally realized he could control the game on the ground in that frame, and accordingly his offense chewed up over ten minutes of possession. That was only an implementation detail, though. As you can see, Florida’s defense never got a hold of things in any given quarter.
Efficiency by Player
| Player | Comp. Pct. | Pass Eff. | Yards/Att | Sacks | Pass SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Trask | 71.9% | 195.0 | 9.8 | 1 | 60.6% |
| Kellen Mond | 71.4% | 180.8 | 9.7 | 0 | 65.7% |
Trask has 14 touchdown passes through three games. That’s more than the entire Florida team had in 2010 (12), 2011 (13), 2012 (13), 2013 (11), and 2017 (10). He’s had at least four in every game so far. If he gets exactly four against LSU, he’ll tie the 2014 and 2016 team with 18.
About twice a year since his sophomore season, Mond will put up a stellar game against P5 competition. It’s not at all predictable, either. Two years ago, he threw for 430 yards at a 10.8 yards per attempt clip with three touchdowns and no picks against the Clemson team that went on to demolish Alabama in the national title game. This game was apparently one of his two excellent ones for 2020, and it wasn’t just that Florida’s defense helped him out a bit. He looked sharp and in command on a lot of throws in a way he doesn’t always.
| Player | Targets | Catches | Yards | Yards/Target | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 9 | 5 | 47 | 5.2 | 55.6% |
| Kadarius Toney | 8 | 6 | 91 | 11.4 | 75.0% |
| Trevon Grimes | 4 | 3 | 44 | 11.0 | 75.0% |
| Malik Davis | 3 | 3 | 73 | 24.3 | 66.7% |
| Justin Shorter | 2 | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 50.0% |
| Kemore Gamble | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3.5 | 50.0% |
| Jacob Copeland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.0% |
| Nay’Quan Wright | 1 | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 100.0% |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 100.0% |
About a third of all offensive plays went to either Pitts or Toney. Pitts stayed on schedule more than half the time, but his explosiveness wasn’t there.
In a tight game on the road against one of the projected top teams in the SEC, the rotation tightened up a bit. Copeland only got two targets, and Trent Whittemore had his first blank. Shorter continues to do little outside catch quick screens.
| Player | Targets | Catches | Yards | Yards/Target | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Chapman | 12 | 9 | 151 | 12.6 | 66.7% |
| Jalen Wydermyer | 7 | 5 | 53 | 7.6 | 71.4% |
| Ainias Smith | 6 | 4 | 53 | 8.8 | 66.7% |
| Chase Lane | 6 | 5 | 52 | 8.7 | 66.7% |
| Kam Brown | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5.5 | 50.0% |
| Isaiah Spiller | 1 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 100.0% |
Again, A&M wasn’t massively explosive through the air. Chapman’s yards per target rate is worse than you’d want to see, but three Gators with at least three targets had a better yards per target rate than the next-highest A&M player. The Gators aren’t allowing a ton of long plays, they’re just letting all the short stuff connect and move the sticks.
| Player | Carries | YPC | Rushing SR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 7 | 3.6 | 42.9% |
| Nay’Quan Wright | 6 | 5.2 | 50.0% |
| Malik Davis | 5 | 4.2 | 40.0% |
| Kyle Trask | 4 | 2.5 | 0.0% |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 9.0 | 100.0% |
Everyone who spent the offseason wondering if the Gators had anything behind Dameon Pierce apparently had forgotten Nay’Quan Wright. He’s displaying the full set of skills that Lamical Perine did last year, even if he’s still learning a bit.
| Player | Carries | YPC | Rushing SR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Spiller | 27 | 6.4 | 59.3% |
| Kellen Mond | 6 | 1.3 | 33.3% |
| Ainias Smith | 5 | 4.6 | 80.0% |
Florida did all right in keeping the mobile Mond from doing much, but these are unacceptable figures for the A&M running backs. Yeah, Spiller is one tough dude, but letting the backs have a success rate north of 60% is just awful. It keeps the Gator offense and cuts down the total possessions in the game in a way that gives opponents a better chance to win.
Field Position
| Team | Avg. Starting Position | Plays in Opp. Territory | Pct. Of Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | Own 38 | 37 | 66.1% |
| Texas A&M | Own 36 | 44 | 59.5% |
Two thirds of UF’s plays came on the plus side of the field. Two thirds. That’s impressive. Chapman’s 51-yard touchdown is probably the reason why the percentage of plays in opponent territory is not closer, though. The Aggies spent plenty of time on Florida’s side too.
Finishing Drives
A trip inside the 40 is a drive where the team has a first down at the opponent’s 40 or closer or where it scores from further out than that. A red zone trip is a drive with a first down at the opponent’s 20 or closer.
| Team | Drives | Trips Inside 40 | Points | Red Zone Trips | Points | Pts./Drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 8 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 28 | 4.75 |
| Texas A&M | 9 | 7 | 41 | 5 | 27 | 4.56 |
The Gators scored more points per drive, but A&M got an extra drive thanks to Malik Davis’s fumble. Also for comparison, Alabama scored 4.50 points per drive against the Aggies. Florida easily could’ve hung half a hundred at Kyle Field if it had more possessions.
But it didn’t get more possessions because the defense let Texas A&M sit on the ball for long stretches. The eight offensive possessions they had were the fewest since only getting seven against Georgia last fall.
Turnovers
Each team had one, and each was a lost fumble. The Aggie fumble set up a five-play, 37-yard touchdown drive for the Gators. Davis’s fumble set up the game-winning field goal.
Overall
I knew they wouldn’t do it, but my gut reaction to Davis’s fumble was that the Gators needed to do another Florida Flop. Just let A&M score quickly so the offense could get back out there and tie it up for overtime. They almost proved me a fool by forcing a 3rd & 8 at the 35 — a spot that would’ve required a 52-yard field goal — but alas. Tre’Vez Johnson’s alignment gave Chase Lane an enormous cushion, the tight end Wydermyer chipped Johnson enough as the catch was made to cause him to miss the tackle, and Lane got 16 yards.
I don’t know what the problem exactly with the defense is. It’s probably not just one problem but a confluence of a few different ones. Defense is poor in college football across the board outside of a handful of teams, so Florida’s defensive staff isn’t alone with its issues to solve.
After all, it’s not the same thing over and over. Sometimes it’s guys getting giant cushions and quarterbacks taking the easy yardage. Sometimes the defense looks like it doesn’t know what’s going on or doesn’t get set on time. Sometimes players are out of position. Sometimes it’s even the opposing offense just making a good play.
Florida’s offense is averaging 42.3 points per game, which almost the same as the 2007 Gators’ 42.5 points per game. They’re not perfectly comparable — the ’07 team had some non-offensive touchdowns, and it played some cupcakes rather than only SEC teams, though SEC defense was considerably better back then than it is now — but that’s the neighborhood they’re playing in.
If I did the counting correctly, the ’07 offense averaged 10.6 possessions per game not including drives that ran out the clock on halves. The ’20 offense is down at 9.6 so far, a full possession behind. The ’07 offense averaged 3.85 points per drive (non-offensive scores are factored out here); the ’20 offense is currently up at 4.38 points per drive.
Again, we haven’t adjusted for competition here, but Florida could be lighting up the scoreboard just the same as how Tim Tebow’s Heisman campaign did if the offense could just get more possessions. One more per game probably gets them over 40 points scored against both South Carolina and Texas A&M; only the 2007 and 2008 teams have put up 40+ on at least three straight power conference opponents since Spurrier left for the NFL.
These are the stakes. It’s not just that UF can’t accomplish its goals with the defense playing like this. It’s that the Gators finally have the kind of high-powered offense that fans have wanted for over a decade, and it can’t do its thing that much because the defense can’t get off the field.
LSU’s defense is apparently dreadful, but its offense is functional even with all the lost personnel. If Mullen’s promised evaluation of the defense doesn’t yield real changes, we’re about to see another contest where the team with the ball last wins.