Florida Gators (3-0) at Tennessee Volunteers (3-0)
Date: Saturday, September 24th
Time: 3:30 PM
TV: CBS
Last Meeting: Florida beat Tennessee 28-27 in Gainesville last year
Last Time Out:
• Florida beat North Texas 32-0
• Tennessee beat Ohio 28-19
Tennessee 2016 Breakdown:
• Head Coach: Butch Jones 24-17 in his 4th year as Tennessee Head Coach (74-44 overall)
• Conference: SEC East
• 2016 Overall Record: 3-0
• 2016 Conference Record: 0-0
Players to Watch:
• Senior Quarterback Josh Dobbs
Dobbs makes his biggest impact running the ball. In his career he averages 55 yards per game. His ability to run opens up the ability to make the big pass over the top.
• Senior Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin
Reeves-Maybin currently leads the team with 18 tackles and has also recorded 2.0 tackles for loss. He missed most of the 1st game against Appalachian State and was injured in the 1st half vs Ohio.
5 Things to know about Tennessee:
1. Rocky Top has lost to Florida 11 years in a row. (Everyone knows this)
2. Tennessee currently holds the 3rd longest winning streak in the country at 9
3. Tennessee has had 12 scoring drives averaging 2:00 minutes per possession.
4. The Vols offense is currently ranked 101st in yards per game the defense stands at 39
5. Since arriving at Tennessee Butch Jones is 5-4 at home vs SEC East opponents and 5-7 overall at home against SEC opponents.
5 Things to Pay Attention to:
1. Injury report for both teams
This Saturday both teams will be entering this game with some significant injuries. Florida will be without starting quarterback Luke Del Rio and Tennessee will be without starting cornerback Cam Sutton and linebacker Darrin Kirkland, Jr. Austin Appleby will replace Del Rio and if he can play clean football the loses of Sutton and Kirkland become that much more magnified because the depth behind both are very questionable especially with Florida’s physical running attack and Antonio Callaway on the outside.
2. Can Appleby be efficient and turnover free
We should not expect McElwain to put too much on Appleby in his first start in front of 102,000 fans. If Appleby can maintain his calm in front of the crowd and stay within the game plan Florida should be fine. If he reverts back to his turnover filled Purdue days, that could be trouble. On the road during his time at Purdue, Appleby threw 7 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
3. Does Tennessee have any confidence they can win THIS game?
For two teams that are fairly evenly matched the largest advantage could be Florida’s confident approach to this game. Tennessee has tried not to engage in the back and forth talk with the Gators but have taken the next game approach. Butch Jones has remained steadfast that this game is no bigger than any other, but the real question is whether Tennessee believes than can break the streak against the Gators. If the Vols get off to a bad start and the crowd starts to turn will they be able to recover?
4. Can Dobbs do it through the air?
It is not a secret that Josh Dobbs has struggled to be consistent as a passer. All of last year Dobbs threw 5 interceptions, he has already thrown 3 this season. Because of that he has not been able to take full advantage of the talent on the outside. Josh Malone has produced big plays in the passing game but that has mainly come in deep ball situations. Will that strategy work against arguably the best corner tandem in the country?
5. Can Butch Jones close out games?
Last year Jones came under plenty of fire for mismanaging end of the game situations. Last year against the Gators a failure to go for two end up costing them the game. This year the Vols have seemingly turned that around outscoring opponents 35-7 in the 4th quarter/overtime. If this game is close or tight, does anyone trust that Jones will make the right decisions down the stretch to come away with a win. Jones needs this win and needs it now.
5 Things to Expect:
1. Tennessee to pound away
Last year the Volunteers ran 51 times and chances are that will be the same course of action this year. This has been Tennessee’s best offense this year, mixed in with some play action. If Dobbs carries are not around and above 15, that is not good for Tennessee. Dobbs has to be involved in the run game for them to have a chance. Jalen Hurd is a load and the Vols will look to use him to wear down the Florida defense.
2. Pineiro and Townsend to be difference makers
In what is expected to be a defensive struggle, field position can be where the game is won. We don’t fully know what Appleby will do, but the best way to help him is put him in short fields and with Pineiro’s kicking ability that will serve as a tremendous plus to winning this game. Tennessee has been a quick strike offense for the most part and Florida has to like its chances if it can prevent big plays and force Tennessee to drive the ball against their salty defense. Johnny Townsend has been good for seemingly eight years and this will be another opportunity for him to shine.
3. Some holes in the Vols secondary
Florida may not have the proven depth of playmakers at receiver, but they have players good enough to expose a secondary missing their best player. If the Florida offensive line can give Appleby some time, Mac and Nuss will scheme up ways to take advantage of the Volunteer secondary. We haven’t heard much from C’yontai Lewis this year in the passing game, but this could be a week he emerges on the scene.
4. Pressure, Pressure, Pressure!
The Gators front seven will provide enough pressure to a struggling Vols offensive line, but the pressure to win this game is enormous. Florida can come in and play loose and be confident while Tennessee has to at some point fold or start marching towards the expectations people had of them before the season began. Unless Florida completely brain farts and falls down early, there is going to be a point where Tennessee will succumb to the pressure or breakthrough and end the streak.
5. Sky high emotions
The amount of trash talk, mainly coming out of Gainesville, has led to this week and it’s prove it time. I have no doubt the Gators will be fired up and I will be EXTREMELY disappointed if Tennessee came out flat. The Vols have avoided engaging in the back and forth but come Saturday they will not be able to run away from it. Can Butch Jones get the boys in orange or gray to stand up to the Florida aggression. There will be jawing and pushing and probably a penalty or two because of it.
5 Keys to Victory:
1. Win the lines of scrimmage
This will be a very physical game. The Gators are just a physical team from jump and the Vols will have an extra bounce in their step looking to prove a point. The Florida front is arguably the best unit in this game on either team and if they can control the line and keep the Vols run game at bay, that will force Dobbs to challenge the next best unit in this game the Florida secondary. The Florida offensive line has improved but has yet to be dominant and keep defenders off of the quarterback. The Tennessee defensive line will be a challenge but getting a push in the run game will help and don’t be surprised if there is a good dose of misdirection from the Gators to keep the Tennessee rush a step slow.
2. Contain Dobbs
Last year Dobbs got loose a couple of times to create chunk yardage that allowed the Tennessee offense to be more effective. Morrison had a heck of a time trying to keep up but enter in Alex Anzalone and he may be the key to stopping Dobbs. Anzalone has been fantastic thus far and he along with Jarrad Davis will be responsible for keep Dobbs at bay. In the 2 games the Vols have struggled Dobbs had 23 carries for 55 yards. Against the Hokies he totaled 106 on 14 carries.
3. Don’t beat yourself
If you think Florida is going to come out and score 30 or 40 points you should move on to the next point. If not, read on. If this turns into a low scoring possession type game, limiting turnovers and the bad, bad penalties are at a premium and are magnified even more. Florida has been clean for the most part in the turnover area so far and it will be on Appleby and the running backs to keep it that way.
4. Weather the storms
We cannot expect the Gators to do everything perfect come Saturday afternoon but they cannot crumble when things do not go right. The atmosphere will be charged but the Gators have plenty of players that have been through these battles. Tennessee will make plays, the key for the Gators is just weathering that storm and not getting out of character.
5. Unleash the horses
Dobbs, Hurd and Kamara will be challenged by the Gators four horses of Scarlett, Thompson, Perine and Cronkrite. If the Gators aren’t getting the desired push early in the game, they cannot abandon the run. Come the 4th quarter those fresh legs could be the difference. Tennessee is very thin at linebacker and the Florida running game needs to challenge them and expose it. If the Gators are effective running the ball early that is a very bad sign for the Vols. The four Gators backs combined have run for 582 yards an average of 194 YPG.
5 Signs It Was a Good Day:
1. Appleby stays within the game plan
Mac and Nuss have proven they can put together solid game plans to be effective on offense and that will be no different come Saturday. Mac closed practices this week and what comes of that who knows? But at the end of the day regardless of what the staff chooses to do Austin has to be clean. He is a capable thrower and maybe his stint at Purdue has stain him in the eyes of many, but if you are believer in what McElwain can do, Appleby will be just fine.
2. Dobbs is forced to throw
If anyone believes Josh Dobbs can beat Florida throwing the ball, please have them come see me. I’ll take the Florida secondary all day every day, in any year against Dobbs. The only way he can consistently hurt Florida throwing the ball is if the running game is effective. If he is obvious passing situations that is always advantage Florida.
3. Rushing yards near or above 150
Rarely in the series does the team that out rushes the other loses, unless you execute the worse end of the game management ever, hello Butch! If the Gators are running effectively that is making life easier on Appleby and the Gators are staying on plan. The Gators have not shown the explosion on the run game but game by game it has gotten better. If that trend continues along with the Florida defense, they should be victorious.
4. Tennessee is constantly in 3rd and long
After the game Saturday go find this stat. If the Vols are not winning 1st and 2nd down, they are not winning this game. The Gators defense is merciless on 3rd and long and it becomes very difficult to generate offense. Tennessee gets Chance Hall back but will he be enough to help repair some of the breaches in the Vols offensive line and help them keep the Florida defensive line from not taking this game over.
5. Florida records 3 or more sacks
The Gators come into the game leading the SEC in sacks and this Vols offensive line is questionable. If they are getting to Dobbs, he has shown the propensity this year to overdo it and make mistakes. If the Gators are coming down on Dobbs rather than chasing Dobbs, they can potentially force him into some bad throws and create turnovers.
Prediction:
This game is about Tennessee. They entered this season as SEC East favorites, top 10 team, Heisman candidate and all that in the first 3 weeks has been thrown into the lake of fire. The pressure is on Tennessee to end the streak more than it is on Florida to continue it. College Gameday is in town, they are pulling out the smoke gray uniforms, checkering the stadium and all the nation will be looking. The streak has to end at some point right?
But unfortunately ducks can’t pull trucks.
In an inspired effort by the Volunteers they will play hard and the game will be tight throughout. If Tennessee is ever in a position where they have to throw the ball they are in big trouble so expect them to get behind Dobbs and Hurd and not challenge the Florida secondary too much. Austin Appleby will not be super but he will not be bad. He will do enough to lead the Gators to a few scores and the Florida defense will eventually rule the day. Dobbs will make plays here and there but the Florida defense will be too much to overcome. Special teams will go a long way to either team winning or losing. Eddy Pineiro and Johnny Townsend will be unsung heroes and Florida will walk away with a hard fought 12th straight victory over Tennessee.
Florida 19 Tennessee 13