Editor’s note: John Patton, our Pigskin Prognosticator, has been sizing up the upcoming SEC football season. After consulting with Sam the Soothsayer in New Orleans (1-, 800-IPREDICT), here’s John’s best, er, effort.
It’s Halloween week, or as they say in Gainesville and Athens, it’s time for Florida-Georgia or Georgia-Florida (depending on your affiliation) in Jacksonville.
BOO! Welcome to Week 9 of the college football season.
The Gators have just rested up after a bye week, while the Bulldogs are coming off a close 24-21 win at Kentucky in Week 8. In other Week 8 games, LSU surprised Auburn on the road, 21-17; Arkansas beat Mississippi, 42-14; Alabama manhandled Tennessee, 35-7; South Carolina routed Vanderbilt, 38-3; and Mississippi State beat UAB, 27-10, in a non-conference battle.
Meanwhile, the rest of the Week 9 Southeastern Conference schedule is a bit of a downer, as with Alabama and Louisiana State off, the next biggest games are Auburn at Mississippi and Tennessee at South Carolina.
WEEK 9
Florida (6-1, 4-1 SEC East) vs. Georgia (6-2, 4-2 SEC East)
Breakdown: The Gators enter this one feeling refreshed, having gotten various bumps and bruises healed in the off week. As for the Bulldogs, it’s almost hard to believe this team was once 1-2 overall and 0-2 in conference play. A lot of the pregame talk for this one centers around the two quarterbacks (Florida’s John Brantley and Georgia’s Aaron Murray), both of whom were inexperienced starters when the season began but now are pushing for postseason honors. The big difference in this one, however, will be the Gator defense. The ‘Dawgs D enters the game having been inconsistent (beating Tennessee, despite allowing 51 points in four overtimes, while also limiting Kentucky to 14 points). The major moment of the first half will come with six minutes left when UF redshirt freshman linebacker Jelani Jenkins steps in front of a pass attempt from Murray to his former Tampa Plant teammate Orson Charles and returns the pick 52 yards to the UGa 1, where Bulldogs’ receiver Tavarres King makes a great play to knock Jenkins out of bounds. Two plays later, Mike Gillislee plunges in to give UF a 17-7 lead at the break. The game never gets closer than that the rest of the way.
Player of the Game: Jenkins records a team-high eight tackles, recovers a fumble and also grabs that key interception to lead UF.
The Pick: Florida 41, Georgia 17
Auburn (4-4, 1-4 SEC West) at Mississippi (4-3, 1-3 SEC West)
Breakdown: Both teams are in bowl contention, despite lousy conference records, so the Tigers and Rebels need this one. Also, each club comes in having lost three straight (Auburn: at Kentucky and home to Arkansas and LSU; Ole Miss: home to Kentucky and at Alabama and Arkansas), so a win would do a lot for each team’s psyche. Like Florida-Georgia, pregame talk for this contest will center on the quarterbacks. However, while that game features a pair known primarily for their passing, this one will match up two of the SEC’s best dual-threats in the Tigers’ Cameron Newton and the Rebels’ Jeremiah Masoli. Behind two touchdown passes from Masoli, who won the job outright in practice a week earlier, to sophomore tight end Ferbia Allen, Mississippi will take a 14-9 lead into the locker room. However, Newton will lead Auburn 85 yards on 16 plays to open the second half, capping the drive with a 4-yard quarterback draw. After a successful two-point pass from Newton to running back Mario Fannin, the Tigers have their first lead of the game, 17-14, with 3:21 remaining in the third quarter. The two teams combine for three first downs on the game’s next four series before the Tigers go up six on a 43-yard field goal by Wes Byrum. That’s when Masoli earns the love of the Oxford faithful. The Oregon transfer concludes the contest by completing all five of his pass attempts and picking up four yards on a key third-and-three to lead the Rebels to the game-winning touchdown (a 9-yard pass to Markeith Summers) with just four seconds left on the clock.
Player of the Game: Masoli completes 15-of-23 passes for 231 yards and three touchdowns. He also runs seven times for 31 yards.
The Pick: Mississippi 21, Auburn 20
Tennessee (2-5, 0-4 SEC East) at South Carolina (6-1, 4-1 SEC East)
Breakdown: Things are a bit rocky in Rocky Top, though that might not be all that fair. Imagine opening your conference schedule with Florida, LSU, Georgia and Alabama. Tennessee doesn’t have to imagine it—that is exactly what it did. And it gets no easier here against Steve Spurrier’s 8th-ranked Gamecocks. By this point in the season, many pundits had predicted South Carolina quarterback Stephen Garcia would be a long-forgotten nightmare. However, the junior from Tampa has had a breakout season, and Spurrier (long a perfectionist when it comes to his quarterbacks) has praised Garcia’s improved decision-making. That praise will come into question early, as Garcia throws a first-quarter interception to Vols’ linebacker Herman Lathers and also fumbles away a snap in the second quarter. In between that, he does have a bright moment, throwing a 74-yard touchdown pass to Alshon Jeffery. Still, behind two touchdown runs from Tauren Poole, UT enters the half with a surprising 14-7 lead. The Vols have a chance to expand on that lead four minutes in to the third. However, a 35-yard field goal attempt by Daniel Lincoln bounces off the left crossbar. That swings momentum back to the home team, which scores touchdowns on its next three possessions to double up still-struggling Tennessee.
Player of the Game: Jeffery catches five passes for 131 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also takes a reverse 14 yards for a key first down midway through the third quarter.
The Pick: South Carolina 28, Tennessee 14
Kentucky (5-3, 2-3 SEC East) at Mississippi State (3-5, 0-4 SEC West)
Breakdown: After a fast start, the Wildcats visit Starkville having lost back-to-back SEC games and a season that once looked like it might end with a New Year’s Day matchup now sees the Wildcats looking like they’ll be returning to the Music City Bowl. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, need this one with games at Alabama and against visiting Arkansas looming after next week’s bye. For this game, UK coach Joker Phillips goes back to Mike Hartline at quarterback in place of Morgan Newton, who threw three interceptions a week earlier against Georgia. There also is a bit of revenge on the minds of the ‘Cats, who were beaten 31-24 in 2009 by what they felt like was an inferior MSU team. Kentucky starts out quickly, scoring a touchdown (on a 5-yard run by Derrick Locke) and two field goals in its first four possessions. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, only can muster a 41-yard field goal from senior Derek DePasquale. After Hartline throws a 14-yard touchdown pass to junior Randall Cobb, UK holds a comfortable 20-3 advantage after three quarters. Then, Mississippi State’s offense wakes up, scoring a touchdown and a field goal, but UK gets a late touchdown pass from Hartline to Locke to earn a road win.
Player of the Game: Locke finishes with 18 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown and adds three receptions for 19 yards and a score.
The Pick: Kentucky 27, Mississippi State 13
The rest of the games: Arkansas 38, Vanderbilt 12; Alabama and LSU are off.
SEC STANDINGS (after Week 9)
EAST DIVISION
SEC Overall
Florida 5-1 7-1
South Carolina 5-1 7-1
Georgia 4-3 6-3
Kentucky 3-3 6-3
Tennessee 0-5 2-6
Vanderbilt 0-5 1-7
WEST DIVISION
SEC Overall
Alabama 5-0 8-0
Arkansas 4-1 7-1
Louisiana State 4-1 6-2
Mississippi 2-3 5-3
Auburn 1-5 4-5
Mississippi State 0-5 3-6
Saturday, Oct. 23 (Week 8)
Florida-OFF
Georgia 24, Kentucky 21
Louisiana State 21, Auburn 17
Arkansas 42, Mississippi 14
Alabama 35, Tennessee 7
South Carolina 38, Vanderbilt 3
Mississippi State 27, UAB 10
Saturday, Oct. 30 (Week 9)
Florida 41, Georgia 17
Mississippi 21, Auburn 20
South Carolina 28, Tennessee 14
Kentucky 27, Mississippi State 13
Arkansas 38, Vanderbilt 12
Alabama, Louisiana State are OFF
Saturday, Nov. 6 (Week 10)
Florida at Vanderbilt
Alabama at Louisiana State
Arkansas at South Carolina
Tennessee at Memphis
Idaho State at Georgia
Charleston Southern at Kentucky
Louisiana-Lafayette at Mississippi
Chattanooga at Auburn
Mississippi State-OFF