TAMPA — The perception is that the Southeastern Conference just doesn’t have it this year. It has the lowest RPI of any of the power conferences, has 10 teams that rank among the 80 youngest out of the 344 that make up NCAA Division I and there isn’t that one team that strikes a lot of fear into the teams at the top of the national polls.
As the SEC Tournament begins today at the St. Pete Times Forum, only two of the league’s 12 teams seem to have a bid to the NCAA Tournament wrapped up before play begins today at 1 p.m. (Ole Miss vs. Kentucky) in the four-day event. Regular season champion LSU (25-6) is a lock to get in on the basis of a 13-3 conference schedule that included 12 straight wins. Tennessee (19-11) will get in based on a good record against a very difficult out of conference schedule that included Big 12 regular season champ Kansas, last year’s national runner-up and Conference USA champ Memphis, Big East power Marquette and West Coast Conference champ Gonzaga.
Other than those two, you won’t find any two experts that will agree on who else from the league gets into the NCAA Tournament nor will you get a solid answer on how many SEC teams will get a bid.
Some of the experts say that the Big East could get nine teams in and the Big 10 has a legitimate shot at eight or nine and that anything less than eight would be an injustice to the Atlantic Coast Conference. Those same experts seem to think that three or four teams would be the best the SEC could hope for.
“I think four will get in,” says veteran CBS broadcaster Tim Brando, who was watching Florida’s Wednesday evening practice at the St. Pete Times Forum. “I believe the SEC has been too good for too long not to get four.”
Four teams from a conference that has produced more national champions since 1994 (five) than any other league in the country including two of the last three (Florida) would seem to indicate a real plunge. Talking heads on television spend a lot of time mentioning weak to average out of conference schedules played by SEC teams, but is that legitimate?
Here’s an example: Providence of the Big East Conference is 19-12 and is expected to get into the NCAA Tournament. The Friars were thought to be in the tournament even before they beat DePaul in the first round of the Big East Tournament. Now that they have disposed of DePaul, consensus opinion is that Providence is in.
Mississippi State (faces Georgia at 3:15) is also 19-12 but the experts say that if Rick Stansbury’s Bulldogs don’t win at least three games in the SEC Tournament, they’re NIT bound. Why? Strength of schedule. At least that’s the argument that’s being presented.
Providence’s best out of conference win is over ACC sixth place finisher Boston College and the slate also includes out of conference losses to Northeastern, St. Mary’s and Baylor. Mississippi State’s best out of conference win is over Sun Belt Conference champ Western Kentucky and includes out of conference losses to Cincinnati of the Big East, Texas Tech of the Big 12 and Charlotte of Conference USA.
This year’s SEC bottom feeder Arkansas (faces Florida tonight at 9:45) beat seventh-ranked Oklahoma when the Sooners were ranked fourth in the nation. Yet the Razorbacks went on to record a 2-14 SEC record.
So why is there such a bad reputation for the SEC? Brando suggests it’s all about youth and not just in terms of the inexperience of the teams.
“It’s a young league that’s going through a difficult time of transition — transition and young players coming in and transition in veteran coaches leaving and new coaches coming in,” Brando said. “You’ve got two interim coaches (Pete Herrmann of Georgia; Philip Pearson of Alabama) in this tournament. I don’t remember the last time in my years of covering the SEC that I’ve seen more than one interim coach in the SEC Tournament. Over half the coaches in this league have less than two years tenure. Five or six of the coaches in the league are here two years or less. It’s a transitional time for the players as well as the young coaches that have come into the league and trying to set the foundation for what they’re trying to do. John Pelphrey is certainly a much better coach than his 2-14 record in the conference would indicate. Arkansas will get it together. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that.”
One of those teams in transition is perennial national powerhouse Kentucky, which has been the SEC standard bearer for much of the 75 years of the league’s existence. The Wildcats have appeared in 50 NCAA Tournaments and they’ve won seven national championships, but unless they pull out at least two wins at the SEC Tournament, they’re NIT bound. Florida has won 22 games and owns a win over Pac-10 champion Washington, but the Gators went to the NIT last year and they’re not a lock this year. The perception is that the Gators have gone from the penthouse of back-to-back NCAA championships (2006, 2007) to just a couple of steps above the outhouse.
Brando says that hard times at Kentucky and Florida having to rebuild after two championship teams are indicative of a time of transition.
“The league is still unsettled and it will probably remain unsettled until maybe the end of next year,” Brando said. “This time next year, maybe we’ll see the worm turn a little bit for the conference. It’s not a bad league and I would suggest to you that the conference may get only four teams in the NCAA tournament but multiple teams could have a chance to go to the Sweet 16 or deeper n the NCAA Tournament field. I do think the level of athlete on the teams that will make it into the tournament will be surprisingly good given the bad rap that the league has gotten all year long.”
Brando agrees that LSU and Tennessee are in even though they’ve encountered some hiccups in the last week. Tennessee dropped its final game of the regular season to Alabama. LSU, after winning 12 straight conference games, lost at home to Vanderbilt then on the road in the final SEC game to Auburn.
“LSU was clearly the best team over the course of the regular season but after they clinched, like a lot of teams that have never been there, they exhaled,” he said. “They’re not good enough to exhale and continue to win and the league saw that.”
Beyond LSU and Tennessee, Brando sees two SEC teams getting NCAA Tournament bids but he’s not sure which two will get in. South Carolina (21-8), which plays the winner of the Georgia-Mississippi State game Friday, has to have a win to get in. Once again, that strength of schedule argument jumps out. Outside the SEC, South Carolina’s best win was over Baylor (18-13) of the Big 12.
Auburn (21-10) is the hottest team in the league right now, but the Tigers’ out of conference schedule was so weak that they desperately need a win over the Gators. Brando thinks Florida could get in with a win over Arkansas tonight, but believes the Gators need to ensure their spot in the NCAA Tournament by winning tonight and against Auburn Friday night.
“I’m not going to call it an elimination game but I’m going to just say the committee is going to be watching that game very, very closely in Indianapolis,” he said. “I sort of like the winner of the Auburn-Florida game getting on a roll. I think it’s very important for Auburn to get Florida for their chances of getting an at-large bid. They don’t need to play Arkansas. They need to play another team with strength of schedule and RPI ranking that would do them some good with the tournament selection committee. I see the winner of that being in a position to get on a real roll.”
That fourth team from the SEC could be a team like Alabama (17-13), winner of eight of its last nine games, or Vanderbilt (19-11), which scored wins over South Carolina and LSU as part of a nice end of the season finish.
“The ultimate sleeper picks in this tournament would be the Vandy-Alabama winner,” Brando said. I like the Auburn-Florida winner advancing and doing great things and maybe playing beyond this week to next week. I think the Bama-Vanderbilt winner will be supremely confident.”