When analytic tools, or “predictive metrics” (technically) started becoming common in college basketball there was originally a level of skepticism, but as more and more results have come in and the weight afforded these metrics has increased when it comes to NCAA Tournament selection and seeding it’s clear that they matter. All of the major tools have preseason rankings and while those numbers technically don’t matter there has been a lot of research that shows how accurate these numbers have been in the past and they can give an indication of how things look entering the season and which teams could win a National Championship.
Preseason predictions have only become more difficult since the immediate eligibility transfers, the influx of European players, and the uncertainty of eligibility situations with fifth year players, so of course these still do need to be taken with a grain of salt. However, given how much coaches, media, and fans look at these numbers it’s important to keep an eye on them even in the preseason.
The three major players in predictive metrics are KenPom, EvanMiya, and T-Rank (BartTorvik) and today we will look at where they have the Gators.
EvanMiya
Preseason Rank: 1st
EvanMiya’s algorithm has the Gators as the National Title favorite, with his further breakdown having the Gators 3rd in projected offensive efficiency and 1st in projected defensive efficiency. When looking at these numbers it’s always interesting to see the breakdown of offensive and defensive projection, and there is a great case for the Gators being better on the defensive than offensive side like we saw last year. Additionally, EvanMiya has the Gators 19th in terms of projected tempo.
Another brilliant part of the EvanMiya tool is their preseason player rankings, a rich piece of information that the other tools don’t offer. Notably, EvanMiya has Alex Condon as the 4th best player in the country–ahead of Thomas Haugh at 6th. Condon played through injury all season last year and shot the ball about as poorly as could be imagined while still putting together an outstanding season, so I see Condon putting together the better 2026-27 as a distinct possibility though it isn’t something that has been discussed in the mainstream.
T-Rank (BartTorvik)
Preseason Rank: 3rd
Most of the media conversation surrounding preseason rankings has Florida as the consensus number one team so there was some shock among fans when Torvik released his preseason numbers with Duke and Arizona at one and two. The further breakdown has Florida 3rd in offensive efficiency and 6th in defensive efficiency. T-Rank has a “talent” ranking and that is an area the Gators fall well behind Duke and Arizona, given that they aren’t loaded with players that had a high recruiting pedigree and I’d have to imagine this is a big reason why Florida comes in at 3rd.
KenPom
Preseason Rank: 2nd
KenPom is probably the most cited of the predictive metrics, and therefore his rankings release (Sunday, during a busy NFL slate as he usually loves to do) caused the most discussion and general shock. This was because most people have discussed Florida as the preseason number one, and people like when the predictive metrics match their opinions. Ahead of Florida is Duke, and it will be interesting to see if KenPom and T-Rank having Duke number one will lead some voters to change their opinion and have the Blue Devils out in front.
The breakdown for KenPom sees the Gators 1st in projected offensive efficiency and 7th in defensive efficiency, something that a lot of Florida observers would probably think would be switched. However, if you’re looking for a reason to think the Gators will outperform 2nd in KenPom, you could hope they are that elite offensively while being better than 7th on the defensive end given that’s really where the identity was a year ago.
KenPom currently has the Gators favored in every game they will play this year, and predicts the Gators to finish 25-5 (variance is built into the algorithm–so being favored to win every game doesn’t mean a 30-0 projected record). At a projected 14-4 record in the SEC, KenPom projects Florida to win the regular season championship.
The preseason metrics can really shape what people are thinking going into the year, and it is always interesting to revisit these numbers after the year.