Andrew Spivey, Gentry Hawk, and Nick Marcinko preview Florida’s Week 5 matchup at Missouri with our roundtable discussion, where we discuss keys to the game and give our score predictions.
What are the keys to victory for Florida’s offense vs. Missouri
AS: Florida needs to get the running game going early as Missouri has been good against the run this year. Florida can do that and allow Aaron Philo to settle into the game.
GH: I think the biggest key for the Gators is showing you can continue to run the football effectively against a defense that has allowed 87.3 rushing yards per game. Both Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark have allowed Aaron Philo and Florida’s passing game to open up and be highly effective, and that must continue to happen against a Missouri secondary that has faced many challenges through four games this season.
NM: The key for Florida’s offense will be the same every week until someone figures out how to stop it: run the ball and get the ball to your playmakers in space. That’s been a fundamental piece of Buster Faulkner’s offense through four games. The Tigers have missed 56 tackles this season and have a tackling grade that ranks 98th in the FBS.
What are the keys to victory for Florida’s defense vs. Missouri
AS: Get pressure on Austin Simmons and make him uncomfortable. Florida can’t allow him to sit in the pocket and have all day to throw.
GH: The keys to victory for Florida’s defense are similar to some of the things I said heading into Florida’s matchup with Ole Miss. Austin Simmons has the ability to extend plays and escape the pocket, but has a tendency to get sporadic and make mistakes when pressured in the pocket. If the secondary is going to have a break out game, Florida’s defensive front must pick up where they left off against the Rebels and attack the pocket.
NM: Austin Simmons throws a really nice ball, so you have to get pressure on him and make him uncomfortable. Simmons has been awful under pressure so far this season, completing just three of 14 passes for 53 yards. His turnover-worthy play rate under pressure is 14.3%. On the season, Simmons ranks 15th among 16 SEC quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate at 5.1%, ahead of only Oklahoma’s John Mateer. If Florida can find consistent pressure, it could go a long way toward determining the outcome of the game.
What is the biggest concern with Florida heading into a road matchup against Missouri?
AS: Florida hasn’t played well in Columbia but they also haven’t had the best of teams when traveling there. So Florida needs to be those woes behind them and also make sure they aren’t still thinking about last week.
GH: I think the obvious biggest concern is Florida’s defense, specifically their secondary. This group continued to struggle last weekend behind a Gators’ front seven that had one of their best performances of the season against Ole Miss. If the Gators want to walk away with a win, Florida’s secondary can’t give up the big plays down field.
NM: I believe Florida’s improvement in the secondary, specifically at cornerback, will determine how far the Gators can go this season. That’s what I’m watching closely this weekend.
What has impressed you most about Florida through the first four games?
AS: The ability of the offensive line to push people around and dominate the game. Florida’s OL was terrible last year and the turnaround has been impressive.
GH: There’s an endless list of things that have impressed me so far through four games this season, but I’ve been blown away by the offensive firepower that we’ve witnessed so far. Aaron Philo has completely exceeded my expectations when it comes to how he operates Buster Faulkner’s offense, and this weekend will be another big test for the junior quarterback.
NM: Florida’s offense has gone from one of the worst in college football to one of the best, if not the best, in one season. For me, the biggest on-field difference, outside of play calling, has been Florida’s perimeter blocking and tight end play. This isn’t something that shows up on the stat sheet, but it has created a ton of explosive plays for Florida. The Gators haven’t had many good blocking tight ends in recent years and have missed so many blocks on the perimeter. That is no longer the case in Gainesville.
Name one player you would like to receive more playing time entering Week 5?
AS: With VB3 and Stockton both questionable, I want to see more of TJ Abrams this week.
GH: With Vernell Brown III and Bailey Stockton listed as questionable this weekend, I want to see Eric Singleton Jr. step up and be the guy for Florida through the air this weekend. The senior records his first touchdown as a Florida Gator on Saturday.
NM: With Florida potentially being without an explosive playmaker in Vernell Brown III, I’d like to see TJ Abrams fill his role and keep some of that same explosiveness on the field.
Score prediction
AS: Florida wins 37-24.
GH: Florida 34, Missouri 24. Before the season, I had this game circled as a trap game for Florida, and now I have it highlighted. Heading into a tough atmosphere after a big win is never easy, as we saw last weekend. However, I trust this team and coaching staff enough to get it done and keep improving on the road this weekend against Missouri. This game will show us exactly what this Florida team will be for the rest of the season.
NM: Florida 42, Missouri 27. The Tigers can’t keep up with Florida’s offense.