We’re well into the dog days of Summer and that means it’s time for another Gator Country subscriber mailbag!
One of the great elements of Gator Country is the ability to regularly hear from subscribers about the content they want, and mailbag series have become a regular part of the writing here. If you have a question you want answered, you can head to the message boards and post it now. There will be multiple parts of this series, so there is plenty of time to get your questions submitted.
Here is part one:
GatorGolfer4: “What percentage chance does Denzel Aberdeen have at getting his waiver approved?”
When the Denzel Aberdeen news was announced I had an unpopular opinion on this, and I will stand firm in that unpopular stance:
I do not currently believe Aberdeen has any case to get a waiver, and for that reason I do not believe he will get it. However, I don’t think it is an impossibility as anything has really been on the table in terms of people magically getting eligibility, which is really the reason why Florida chose to try their chances anyways.
Allow me to respect the format of the initial question, and say that I think there is a 40% chance that Aberdeen gets his waiver. I certainly don’t think there is no opportunity, and I would not be terribly surprised if it happened–but by how the rules are stated Aberdeen does not have a case. There is a definite chance that Florida chooses to fight this in court, but these exact types of cases are the ones the NCAA tends to actually do well in (though there are plenty of others that they don’t!).
When asked about the waiver Golden said that it was “common sense situation” that Aberdeen would get the waiver, and many fans and media ran with it as a fact. Here’s the thing–what else is Golden going to say? Did people expect him to say “well, I’m not actually too confident here, but we’re going to try,” or did they expect him to say “we know there isn’t really a base here for our argument, but heck, a lot of people fight the NCAA and win.”
Golden said it was a “common sense situation” and defended the case by referencing that Aberdeen played only 41 minutes, but that isn’t a criteria the NCAA technically looks at, there have been a number of cases where people have tried to argue this case for a player and it hasn’t worked. The fact of the matter is that Aberdeen appeared in 12 games which is over the threshold, and it wasn’t due to injury or off-court reasons.
I think that Florida took Aberdeen on the basis that:
1) They thought they’d win the waiver claim, though it wasn’t a certainty
2) The NCAA would implement a “five in five” rule that would allow him the ability to play anyway
Or, possibly even:
3) The Gators are ready to go to a court in Florida and just a judge who might have a bit of a pro-Gator slant gives a temporary restraining order that would allow Aberdeen to play, something we are starting to see around the country (for better or worse, whatever you personally believe).
I think there is a higher likelihood of the NCAA adopting the “five in five” model in August than Aberdeen getting a waiver, but we will see!
PColag8tr: “What is the timeframe of the NCAA decision regarding Aberdeen getting the extra year?”
There are no established timelines for cases like these. The NCAA gets to these cases when they get to them, and they can go on for as long as they need–including if the season has already started.
Currently, it’s unknown where things are at with the process. It could be decided tomorrow, next week, in a month. Any time.
PColag8tr: “How much playing time and what level of an impact do you see from the new European players?”
I wrote about each individual player and I hope you check out both articles to get a feel for these guys but I made it pretty clear what my expectation is. First of all, it’s important to note that Arturas Butajevas and Domen Petrovic are two players at very different points of their development and career–Butajevas is younger, and is coming functionally as a true freshman. Petrovic, on the other hand, is functionally a graduate transfer in terms of age and experience.
For that reason, I expect Petrovic to have a much bigger role. He has loads of professional experience and has done a lot of battling with grown men, and he is much more polished. He’s someone that I think slides into the backup power forward spot and will really help Florida’s shooting, and I think he could be a 17-25 minute per game player.
Butajevas is more of a prospect, and coming over as a more typical freshman, he probably won’t be relied on to play a ton, though the Gators would be more than happy to get him involved if he has what it takes to contribute right away. Butajevas moves well and has good length but his frame isn’t particularly developed and he hasn’t yet translated his mobility into functional skill. I think he finds his way into the rotation to an extent, but I don’t think he is a big minute guy or someone who will be on the court in high-leverage situations.
NCgatorfan: “With 4 of 5 starters returning, do we see any increase in the rotation given talent on the bench?”
This upcoming season will be my tenth writing about Florida Basketball for Gator Country (crazy, I know) and there are some certainties that happen every single year, and they are the same certainties that most high-major teams face in each offseason.
People inevitably look at the roster, think about how deep the team is, and then suggest “this is a team that could go 10/11/12 deep this year!”
Then, by the time late January comes around, it’s an 8-man rotation. This is the case for most teams, at least. There are outliers, but for most teams it doesn’t really matter how good the 9th, 10th, or 11th man are–coaches are just more comfortable with a tighter rotation. Golden is someone who is in the camp of wanting a smaller rotation, and last year the Gators were 330th in the country in bench minutes–even though everyone thought the depth was going to be a major strength last year and that it would lead to a deeper rotation.
For that reason, I just don’t think I would ever go into any season expecting the Gators to go deep into the bench and regularly play a deep rotation, though the original question was “do we see an increase,” and given that the Gators were 330th in bench minutes last year there is more room to go up than there is down–so yes, the Gators probably will play the bench a little bit more. Will the Gators be a team that really relies on these pieces deep on the bench? I personally don’t think so.
67walkon: “Can Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu get much better or are they going to be what they were this year?”
This is a great question, and I am inclined to be on the conservative side when expecting players to make huge strides between years three and four. Generally speaking I do think by the time players get to this age, if they’re still in college in the same setting–they often are what they are. Now, things could be different here for Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu because both of these players started basketball later in life than a lot of college seniors, and because of that their trajectories have been a lot different than similar-aged players.
I certainly wouldn’t have predicted the jump that Chinyelu made last year, and if he was able to drastically improve his mobility on the defensive end, perhaps this year we could see him make strides with his offensive decision making and touch.
With Condon, a clear area of improvement would be his three-point stroke, and that’s something very tangible that could see his game take a major jump. Even if Condon is the same in literally every area but the three-point shot and he improves that stroke to 31%–well, that’s a fantastic player.
Haugh is the one I am really interested in. A lot of his offense came as a play finisher and not an initiator, and with the Gators backing up the Brinks truck to get him back they may be looking to see him create a bit more. Can he add more individual creation to his game at this point? It will be fascinating to see.
This was part one of the Summer Mailbag series, and there will be plenty more parts–so if you have a question you’d like answered head to the message board now where you can post it.