As longstanding Gator Country readers will know, before every Florida Gators basketball season I take time to make predictions on the statistical production of the team’s incoming transfers. It’s an enjoyable exercise that I look forward to doing every year, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle.
Sports media is always loaded with predictions, but they are seldom revisited–and people are free to make whatever future claims they want, often without ever having to have those predictions brought up ever again. This is not the case with my transfer projections, as after every year I like to revisit them and see just how close or far I was from the truth, and how the season for these players went relative to what I expected. Some years have been absolutely fantastic (perhaps some of you will remember the Anthony Duruji and Tyree Appleby projections) and others less so, but whatever the case is–I will be here for the credit, or the ridicule.
If you want to read the preseason article where I introduced the projections, you can do so here.
Now, let’s get into how these predictions held up.
Xaivian Lee
Preseason Projections:
31.2 Minutes
14.1 Points
4.8 Assists
4.5 Rebounds
0.9 Steals
0.1 Blocks
34.3% Three-Point
Actual Stats:
27.4 Minutes
11.6 Points
4.2 Assists
3.7 Rebounds
1.2 Steals
0.1 Blocks
29.2% Three-Point
Hindsite is always 20/20, but here is one where I really do wish I stood in the paint and held to some of my convictions.
When the Gators acquired Lee and the hype was at its maximum, I was quick to tamper down expectations–I didn’t love everything I saw about his game, and expected a dip in his three-point shooting and overall scoring from what he had at Princeton. However, I allowed some noise from inside the program to affect what was originally lower overall predictions, and if I kept with the original numbers I would have been much closer. Even though I thought Lee was going to have a three-point dip I never would have expected his ultimate 29.2% three-point stroke, so that came as a large surprise. I also expected Lee to play almost 4 more minutes per game than he did, and if he ended up playing that amount I would have been closer to the correct point totals. The assist and rebounding categories were not bad though!
Overall, I think I did a decent job–but I will let you be the judge.
Boogie Fland
Preseason Projections:
31.5 Minutes
15.2 Points
5.1 Assists
3.8 Rebounds
1.5 Steals
0.1 Blocks
36.6% Three-Point
Actual Stats:
30.0 Minutes
11.6 Points
3.5 Assists
2.5 Rebounds
1.7 Steals
0.1 Blocks
24.0% Three-Point
Well…
I have done better work before.
Looking back at all my years of projection work, I do not think I have made a bigger error than expecting a player to hit 36.6% of his threes with him ultimately shooting 24%. Could I defend my projection with some specific analytics related to spots on the floor and styles of shots relative to the role I expected he’d play with the Gators? I could–but to do that might only be more frustrating and make it feel like I was digging myself a hole. Thankfully I wasn’t the only one who expected a better shooting season so I wasn’t on an island–but man, is it rough to see how badly I missed!
Had he been even a league average shooter he likely would have been awfully close to the points I had projected, and I did expect him to have a bit more playmaking juice. As someone who beat the drum in the preseason regarding Fland being a better defender than he was getting credit for, it was nice to see the steals production.
Next year will be an interesting one for projections as the Gators don’t have many traditional transfers–but you can be sure that there will be some type of predictions in order.