It will be Florida versus Kentucky round three on Friday as the SEC Tournament reaches the quarterfinal stage. The Gators, having earned a double-bye, have been resting and waiting for their opponent to be named while Kentucky had to battle with Missouri on Thursday to advance, and while the Wildcats led for much of the game their patented cold stretch nearly bit them as the Tigers had a chance to get back in the game and nearly take the win. Ultimately it was a 78-72 win for Kentucky, whose games always seem to have the same script whether they win, or they lose–more on that later.
Let’s talk stakes. Obviously, this is the SEC Tournament, and obviously both teams would like to go and earn a banner. However, we know how this sport works, and both teams will also be looking towards the NCAA Tournament and their seed within it. As most of you will be aware, Florida is currently comfortably in a 1-seed position, and the only way they could really open the door to be usurped is by losing this game to Kentucky. Even with a loss it’s likely the Gators could hold on to the final 1-seed slot if some of the teams chasing them don’t win their conference tourneys, but adding a neutral site win over the Wildcats is likely all the Gators need to seal their spot.
Entering the SEC Tournament the Wildcats were likely a 7-seed which is a dangerous place to be, as when you’re in that 6-10 seed blender you can always see your seed drop in a hurry–though it also gives you a chance at elevating with a quality win. A win over the Gators would bump the Wildcats to certain 6-seed status, and give them another chance at a big win in the semis that could bump them even higher. Trying to get as high a seed as possible when you’re in this range to avoid a 2 or a 3-seed as long as possible is paramount, so this will be a hungry team.
As is always the case, Kentucky fans flock to the SEC Tournament and make their appearance felt, and playing against Missouri it looked like a Wildcat home game. That isn’t to say there wasn’t a good amount of Missouri fans, much like there will be a good amount of Florida fans in attendance, but it’s always safe to say that when you’re playing an SEC Tournament game against Kentucky the crowd is going to lean towards the Wildcats. This, and the rust the Gators could be feeling after not playing since Saturday could be areas of concern, though the Gators will be happy to have the rest advantage. This is particularly the case because of Thomas Haugh who is nursing a minor ankle injury–nothing that would risk him missing time, but something the Gators would not want to see him re-injure.
This will be the third meeting of the season between the Gators and Wildcats with Florida winning both, first by a score of 92-83, and then 84-77. The script in both of these games was essentially the same, and this is not unique to Florida’s experience against Kentucky:
The ball was tipped, Florida built a massive lead, Kentucky surged back to get within striking distance, and then let things slip once again to lose by multiple possessions.
It does not matter the opponent, it does not matter the outcome–every Kentucky game feels the same, where they either start way behind and then go on a massive run themselves, or they start with a massive lead and then give it up with a drought. This was the case against Missouri where the Wildcats built a 16-point lead midway through the second half, only to go ice cold and allow the Tigers to fight back and make it a 1-point game. Kentucky was able to come away with the win, but their patented second half drought made things far closer than they should have been. In both losses to Florida Kentucky started slow, was ahead by double digits, then surged back to make things close at some point in the second before running out of gas and it feels like you can probably expect the same script once again. Against Missouri the Wildcats struggled to contain big man Mark Mitchell who finished with 32 points, and you have to think Florida’s bigs are licking their lips ready to go against the now fatigued Kentucky front line. Otega Oweh was able to bully his way to 21 points at the rim while Denzel Aberdeen had 16, largely due to his ability to get to the line.
We’re also at the point where we should probably talk about the old adage that “it’s hard to beat a team three times in the same season,” something that has been repeated in college basketball for decades, and could be something you’re thinking about as you ponder this matchup. Here’s the thing–it doesn’t actually hold up to any level of scrutiny. In 2020 Jordan Sperber did a study that showed between 2011-2020 that the team that won the first two meetings had a 72% chance of winning the third matchup, throwing cold water on the idea that the 0-2 team had any better chance in game three (yes, that study is now over five years old, and while I’d like to see the updated data, I can’t imagine things have really changed).
For Florida, the winning recipe in the first two matchups was keeping a consistent level of effort, particularly on the offensive end, knowing that Kentucky is volatile on the other end and though they would get hot at some point–they were certain to cool off for multiple stretches. At this point we have a full season of sample size that shows just how hot and cold the Wildcats run, and so long as the Gators maintain a consistent level of play and don’t get discouraged by things when Kentucky hits shots they should be in good shape.
Florida and Kentucky will tip off Friday, March 13th at 1 PM ET and it will be televised on ESPN.
Florida Gators center Rueben Chinyelu (9) during the game against the Saint Francis Red Flash at Stephen C. O'Connell Center on December 17, 2025 in Gainesville, Florida. Gator Country Photo by Kan Li.