Just two weeks ago the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee revealed their top 16-seeds and the Gators were established as the highest 3-seed. This placement, by all accounts, was dead on, with all reputable bracketologists interpreting the data the same way and placing the Gators in that area. Though they were a 3-seed at that moment, with the remaining schedule for Florida as well as the schedules of the teams ahead of them it looked like a 2-seed was likely. However, the possibility of a 1-seed, though technically possible–seemed slight.
Well, that was then.
In the immediate days following the seeding reveal, every single projected 2-seed in front of the Gators suffered a loss, many of which were by double digits, allowing the Gators to easily leapfrog not just into a 2-seed position but one of the top 2-seeds. At this point they were pretty secure in that 2-seed spot in that it was unlikely any loss would drop them back to the 3-line, but when it came to their goal of earning a 1-seed things were somewhat out of their hands. Yes, they needed to keep winning–but UConn, the final 1-seed, would likely have to lose a game for the Gators to jumpfrog them.
This loss, Florida assumed, would have to come in the Big East Tournament. UConn’s final two regular seasons were against Seton Hall and Marquette, a Pirates team just outside the top-50 in KenPom and a Marquette team that was in position to potentially finish dead last in the league.
Well, Florida fans can thank former assistant Shaka Smart and Marquette, as they stunned UConn by playing one of their best games of the season, downing the Huskies 68-82 and handing them their second quad-3 loss.
When looking at the differences in resume between the Gators and Huskies one of the interesting losses was quad-2 and quad-3 losses. Florida had a quad-2 loss and UConn had zero, though UConn had a quad-3 loss and the Gators had zero. With the loss to Marquette, the Huskies now have one more bad loss than the Gators.
Now the Gators are clearly the final 1-seed, and they’re in a good position to hold it. In order for UConn to jump the Gators again it’s likely that Florida would have to lose their first game of the SEC Tournament Friday and UConn would have to win the Big East Tournament. With the Big East down this year there aren’t many quality games available, even on a neutral court, so UConn would likely need to win out to get quality wins in the semifinals and finals AND have the Gators miss out on any more chances by dropping a quarterfinal game, which is certainly possible but unlikely.
With 1-seeds having the opportunity to pick their opening round locations and the other one seeds in Duke, Michigan, and Arizona all looking towards different parts of the country as their preferred spots, it’s likely Florida will play their opening weekend games in Tampa in front of a ton of Gator fans. Obviously 1-seeds losing in the first weekend is always unlikely, and that’s helped by the home court advantage these site selections can bring.
Currently, some of the projected 16-seeds the Gators might face are Tennessee State, Long Island, Bethune-Cookman, and Howard–though these are all teams from 1-bid leagues and that means there can be some unexpected winners to break through.
Florida will now have several days to prepare for the SEC Tournament as they await their matchup to be decided.