Riding all the momentum in the world and now hunting down a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament the Florida Gators will have every opportunity to pick up another win when they take on the lowly Mississippi State Bulldogs.
As you probably saw from the postgame celebrations the Gators clinched at least a share of the SEC regular season title on Saturday, and functionally they did lock up an outright win. In order for the title to be shared the Gators would need to lose both of their remaining games with Alabama winning out, and while that is technically possible it is quite unlikely. Whatever the case may be, the Gators could lock up an outright SEC regular season title with room to spare Tuesday with a win over Mississippi State and right now that is looking likely.
Entering the 2025-26 season expectations were high for Mississippi State. The first three years of the Chris Jans era in Starkville had gone well with NCAA Tournament visits in each of them, and after landing some productive players in the portal and retaining star Josh Hubbard there was some thought this could be Jans’ best Bulldogs team yet. They entered the season 26th in KenPom, and thought they could compete to be in the upper tier of the SEC.
That, as you might have seen, did not happen.
In non-conference play Mississippi State lost a handful of games, including to Kansas State (outside the top-100 in KenPom) and mid-major opponents New Mexico and San Francisco. Some teams will take their lumps in non-conference play and turn things around in conference, but that wasn’t the case. After two solid wins over Texas and Oklahoma to start SEC play the Bulldogs dropped 8 of their next 9, and have since found themselves down at 13th in league standings. In their last three games they have lost soundly to South Carolina who is last in the league and got blown out by Alabama and Missouri, and in a lot of ways look like they have given up on the season and can’t wait for things to be over.
It couldn’t be more of a contrast with the Gators who are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and this is confirmed by the KenPom prediction for this game which sees Florida favored by 23 points.
Despite the nightmare of a season, star Josh Hubbard has kept up his elite-level play from the last two seasons and has continued to be one of the most underrated players in the country, this year hiding in plain sight given that many people are not checking out Mississippi State games. Averaging 21.4 assists and 3.6 assists per game, Hubbard is carrying the entire Bulldogs offense on his back as the only real individual threat offensively, and despite all the defensive attention he attracts he somehow has still been able to put up huge point totals on decent efficiency. A tough shot maker on the perimeter, there are a lot of times where defenses play him well and make him uncomfortable and he is still able to rise up and make a difficult shot. The full force of Florida’s scouting report will be on limiting Hubbard’s effectiveness, and there is always a chance he will put up 25+ points, even if he has to do it on pure volume.
Overall, offense has been a slog for Mississippi State who hasn’t been able to create outside of Hubbard. Guard Jayden Epps was brought in from Georgetown to help on the offensive end, but his game doesn’t interface smoothly with Hubbard’s. Epps is an isolation scorer himself who needs the ball to be effective, and playing off of Hubbard he isn’t the off ball threat that the Bulldogs have needed. Still averaging 13.7 points per game Epps isn’t a bad player, but he wasn’t the type of piece Mississippi State needed to round out the offense. UAB transfer Ja’Borri McGhee is a good catch and shoot player that can help space out around Hubbard, but he comes off the bench and hasn’t contributed enough defensively to earn the trust of Coach Jans.
Jans has always been known as a defensive coach, but trying to bring in more offensive juice through the portal hasn’t worked in producing more points while also sacrificing the defensive identity of the program. Right now the Bulldogs are 95th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, way behind the 9th and 22nd ranked defenses Jans had in his first years in Starkville when the team was playing well. In the backcourt the Bulldogs have small offensive gunners who aren’t always the most locked in on the defensive side, and the frontcourt is big and physical which helps in a lot of settings but they don’t have the foot speed to cover up for the dribble penetration allowed by the guards. It has been a frustrating year all around for Jans but arguably the most frustrating part for him has been the defense, and the Gators may not have much push back when they go on the attack.
With 7’0”, 260 pound Quincy Ballard and 6’9”, 230 Achor Achor starting in the frontcourt for Mississippi State you might expect that they’d be a bit more impactful on the glass but that also has been a point of weakness. In their last two games against Missouri and Alabama the Bulldogs have given up 14 and 15 offensive rebounds, and the Gators are likely to eclipse even those totals.
Right now the end of the season can’t come quickly enough for Mississippi State and with nothing to really play for you can’t be sure exactly what fight they will bring, but the Gators will have to remain focused and stick to energetic, defensive style of play that has been powering them on the winning streak.
Florida and Mississippi State will tip off Tuesday, March 3rd at 8 PM ET (note the slightly later start than normal) and it will be televised on SEC Network.