From about 2016-2023 when Florida fans followed bracketology it was often about living on the bubble, trying to find out if the Gators were going to be comfortably in the dance, or what losses they’d need to avoid in order to make the cut. Thankfully, things are a bit different now. Coming off a National Championship and picked to compete for it once again, following bracketology hasn’t had to be as regular an activity, and many of you that were used to refreshing the NET rankings everyday have been less interested in the activity knowing that the Gators won’t just be comfortably in the tournament, but will compete for a top seed.
While bracket watching hasn’t been a regular part of Gator Country’s coverage this year as it hasn’t had to be, it is time to take a detailed look in to where Florida sits and what you might expect from them on Selection Sunday, as well as knowing what the remaining regular season and SEC Tournament games could mean.
In a world full of bracketologists making their predictions it can be difficult to know whose work to follow, but on Saturday we actually got a reveal of the top 16 seeds straight from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, so this is the place to start. Here were those sixteen top teams, in order:
Michigan
Duke
Arizona
Iowa State
UConn
Houston
Illinois
Purdue
Florida
Kansas
Nebraska
Gonzaga
Texas Tech
Michigan State
Vanderbilt
Virginia
As you can see, Florida was the top 3-seed in the eyes of the committee at this exact moment–of course, with a lot of games remaining.
This position is also matched by Bracket Matrix, a composite of the top bracketologists out there, with the combined opinions of all of them making for a fairly accurate picture.
The strength of Florida’s resume comes with the metrics, as the NET (7th), KenPom (5th), EvanMiya (4th), and Torvik (4th) all see the Gators as a 1 or even 2-seed. However, the volume of losses (6) is what currently keeps Florida out of contention for a coveted 1-seed. Illinois, the only team ahead of Florida with 6 losses as well, is even better than Florida in metrics while having a few more quality wins and that has given them the slight edge.
Something that has shaped Florida’s NCAA Tournament resume in a way that they may not have expected is the SEC being significantly weaker at the top than the Big 10 and Big 12. Add in that Florida was handed one of the easiest possible schedules in the SEC, and they just simply haven’t had the same amount of opportunities as the teams ahead of them in the Big 10 and Big 12 to get marquee wins. As you can see, Vanderbilt is the only other SEC team in the top 16, while the Big 10 has five and the Big 12 has four.
So, now that we’ve established that the Gators are the top 3-seed, how much higher can they get?
At this point, a 1-seed is essentially out of the picture. The resumes of the three teams at the top are fairly iron-clad at the moment, and the teams ahead of Florida simply have more resume building opportunities remaining on their schedules. At this point the highest the Gators could get is a 2-seed, and that is certainly possible if they continue to win out. Florida is projected to win each of their remaining regular season games and will be favored in every SEC Tournament game, and even if they don’t win out they could stay strong while seeing Illinois or Purdue drop games that allow the Gators to jump them.
By getting one of these top seeds, the Gators will hope to be sent to their preferred first round site of Tampa, for obvious reasons–and if they remain a 3-seed, they may need some of that home court feel against a scrappy 6-seed they’d likely face in the second round.
Just for fun, if the Gators are a 3-seed which seems likely, who are some of the teams they might open up against?
Some of the current 14-seeds are Hawaii who plays a very unique style of defense where they don’t allow three-point looks but never help at the rim, Austin Peay who is riding a 10-game winning streak in the Atlantic Sun, North Dakota State who has shooting up and down the lineup (gotta watch out for those Summit League teams like Oral Roberts), and East Tennessee State with up and coming coach Brooks Savage.
Florida will look to build on their resume Wednesday night when they play Texas.