Entering the final weeks of the season the Florida Gators will continue to push for the SEC title when they take on the Texas Longhorns. Currently the Gators are cruising at 12-2 in league play, sitting at the top of the standings two games ahead of Arkansas at 10-4. Favored to win each of their remaining games, Florida can even afford a slip up while still winning the regular season title though they will want to keep their momentum into postseason play.
In the first year under head coach Sean Miller, Texas had a bit of a rocky start in non-conference play but has since found their way and are likely in the midst of their best stretch of the season. Taking losses to Duke, Virginia, UConn, and Arizona State, there were questions about the ceiling of the Longhorns even though these weren’t damaging resume losses. It was also a slow start to SEC play for Texas, though it finally seems like things have clicked in recent weeks, as they rattled off five straight wins until Saturday where their streak ended against Georgia. With wins over Alabama and Vanderbilt, Texas has gotten some of the tougher wins in SEC play and now at 17-10 without any horrible losses they find themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture. Right now the Longhorns are slotted in as 9-seed according to Bracket Matrix, which means they are far from comfortable as a few losses could see them falling out the field and a win against the Gators could be worth as much as a seedline. In fact, a win over the Gators might even even be what functionally punches Texas’ ticket as “safe” for the NCAA Tournament field so they will be a hungry team on Wednesday.
Whether it be watching the Longhorns play, seeing their final scores, or dipping into the advanced analytics it is very clear where Texas thrives and where they are vulnerable. Let’s let the KenPom rankings paint the picture:
Currently Texas is 6th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 118th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Simply put, the Longhorns are filling it up offensively but they are struggling to maintain any kind of structure on the other end, and it’s resulting in some high scoring games where the team that gets a bucket last often wins. In a league like the SEC where scoring is hard to come by it’s not easy to score as well as Texas does and their work on that end has been remarkable. The style in which they do it adds some intrigue as well as they don’t play fast and get a bunch of easy ones in transition and they don’t shoot a ton of threes or shoot a crazy percentage–much of what they get is manufactured layups at the rim, and it speaks to their driving, cutting, and passing ability to have such a powerful offense without relying on transition or the three-point look. Playing against Florida will be a massive test for Texas as the Gators have so much length at the rim and can make it so difficult for opponents to score around there, and the Longhorns aren’t going to change their formula too much since it’s been so effective.
Leading the way offensively for Texas is Dailyn Swain, a 6’8” junior who followed Miller from Xavier and it’s been a great move as he’s averaging 17.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. A versatile forward, Swain is often handling the ball and the perimeter where he can use his speed and skill advantage over bigger forwards resulting in straight line drives and opportunities to find teammates when help collapses. He’s a willing and excellent passer who will turn the ball over some just due to the amount he handles, but he can be a matchup problem for a team like Florida that plays a lot heavier in the frontcourt. The Gators had issues with a similar do-it-all forward in Auburn’s Keyshawn Hall, so Florida will have to learn from the loss to Auburn to look for how to better handle someone like Swain. Also, Swain can have an impact on the defensive end with his ability to poke away dribbles or read passing lanes, and he’s free to gamble on a defense that knows it hasn’t been effective and therefore will allow some aggressive play.
Another name to note is Matas Vokietaitis who has been one of the best transfer stories in the country that most people don’t know about. Vokietaitis is just a sophomore after spending his freshman season at Florida Atlantic. The 7’0”, 250 pound Lithuanian averaged 10.2 points and 5.4 rebounds at Florida Atlantic before making the jump to the SEC where he has actually seen his production explode, now averaging 15.7 points and 6.9 rebounds. In a world where people don’t feel they know what they have with mid-major transfer or are expecting a natural drop in production, Vokietaitis has shown if you can identify the right players they can be excellent right away and he has excelled in Coach Miller’s system as a versatile “5” who can be a dribble handoff hub on the outside or get down on the block and punish a switch. A foul-drawing ninja, Vokietaitis is second in the country in drawing fouls and Florida’s bigs will have to be aware of his crafty moves around the rim. Defensively, Vokietaitis isn’t a particularly mobile player and doesn’t block a lot of shots and likely contributes to some of the defensive limitations, though his work on the offensive end makes him one of the better centers in the league.
In the backcourt, Texas rolls out sixth year Tramon Mark and senior Jordan Pope, a player the Gators once coveted in the transfer portal when he was leaving Oregon State. Mark is a volume shooter who can run hot and cold and his overall shooting is down this year but he is always a threat and has a ton of big-game experience. Florida’s smaller guards could have some issues with his physicality, though they’ll be happy to keep him on the perimeter if he’ll settle for jumpers. Pope is more of a jump shooter who can put up points in a hurry, though he’s a limited defender who can lack intensity on that end.
Texas doesn’t have a ton of size or muscle, but they take rebounding seriously and have sneakily been one of the best rebounding teams in the country ranking 15th nationally in offensive rebounding and 45th nationally in defensive rebounding. It’s clear that the script for Texas if they’re going to win includes keeping the rebounding column close, and if they’re able to do that they’ll next hope that they can shoot the ball well while the Gators have one of their off-shooting nights.
With the Gators on their way to an SEC regular season championship and the Longhorns fighting to stay on the right side of the bubble this is going to be an exciting game that you won’t want to miss.
Florida and Texas will tip off Wednesday, February 25th at 7:00 PM ET and it will be televised on ESPN 2 or ESPN U.