Rolling through the SEC and flattening teams that have been struggling, the Florida Gators will have a chance to do that once again Saturday when they take on the Ole Miss Rebels who are in the midst of a tailspin.
Entering the season expectations were fairly high for Ole Miss. Coming off a Sweet Sixteen and bringing in some established talent, the Rebels were picked 8th in the preseason poll which was thought to be good enough for a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament (of course, people didn’t know the SEC would be way down from what they were) while also being 24th going into the year according to KenPom. The Rebels weren’t able to get anything done in non-conference play losing five times and having their best win come over 100th ranked Memphis, and that has continued into SEC play where they are 3-9 placing them 14th in the standings (they will play Wednesday night against Texas A&M in a game they are expected to lose by multiple possessions). Not only has the season gone poorly for Ole Miss but they are currently on a 7-game losing streak where most games have been uncompetitive, making this their worst stretch of the year.
On the other end of the spectrum is Florida, 11-2 at the top of the standings currently clearing Arkansas by two in the win column, and with the Razorbacks playing a difficult game against Alabama Wednesday there is a chance the Gators will have a 2-game lead going into the Saturday slate. Everything is in place for the Gators to win the regular season as long as they continue to dominate the struggling teams at the bottom of the league, and Ole Miss gives them the opportunity.
You can see problems for the Rebels on both sides of the floor but right now their biggest struggle is probably on offense where they never seem to have a rhythm that makes for easy looks, and every basket they score looks like a struggle. With the roster built largely on isolation scorers there is a lot of “your turn, my turn” as different players look to break down their defenders and while they certainly have capable individual scorers, it requires a lot from the ball handler to create something individually against a set coverage. This isolation-heavy style also results in a lot of tough midrange jumpers and Ole Miss doesn’t get a lot of shots at the rim, and facing the length of the Gators they’ll be even more reluctant to get anything in the paint so you can expect a steady diet of floaters and pull-up jumpers.
Leading the way in scoring is guard AJ Storr who has about as much experience as anyone in the country having been a starter at St. John’s, Wisconsin, Kansas, and now Ole Miss. Averaging 14.6 points per game largely in that isolation style he is shooting the ball better than he has in his career at 39% from three (without a lot of volume) but he’s mostly known for his mid-post work. Though just 6’5”, Storr will sometimes play the “4” as the Rebels go for smaller lineups and if so there will be quite the mismatch in size between him and the players Florida rolls out at the position, and just how Florida chooses to guard Storr will be fascinating.
Probably Ole Miss’ most important player is returning center Malik Dia, a stretch-ish big who can shoot it just enough to keep the defense honest while having enough size to hang with SEC bulk. Averaging 13.2 points and 6.1 rebounds per game Dia is a solid SEC frontcourt player, but one that’s probably slightly miscast in that Ole Miss has required him to be more of an initiator where he is likely better off playing off ball and finishing plays around the rim or taking open catch and shoot threes.
Though things haven’t gone well for the Rebels this year, one bright spot has been the play of Ilias Kamardine, a French player who was playing professionally in his country’s top league before coming to the NCAA. His scoring has cooled off to 10.6 points per game while adding 3.6 assists, but early in the season he showed the ability to go off for some big offensive nights–and he does it in style. Kamardine is as flashy as it gets, stringing together difficult dribble combinations before finding space and hitting circus shots, and though his individual ability shines through it’s clear his general style of play as a European pro has not always jived with the SEC’s more meat and potatoes style. Even though it might not be a perfect fit, Kamardine is still someone that opposing coaches need to be aware of.
A familiar name will be freshman Patton Pinkins, the son of former Florida assistant Al Pinkins. Pinkins has also been one of the positive stories of the Ole Miss season, taking advantage of some of the poor play of others to take over a starting role where he is now averaging 8.6 points a game which is not easy to do for a freshman that wasn’t super hyped before the season.
Defensively, the Rebels are a bit undersized, a bit underathletic, and sometimes don’t seem to show the toughness or desire that head coach Chris Beard would like to see. Whatever the case may be, the Rebels still can be difficult to play against at times and can force some longer possessions where they’ll blow up some actions or deny ball reversal, but despite the film not actually looking that bad the results suggest a team that’s one of the worst in the SEC. One thing that may be in Ole Miss’ favor is that they will protect the paint at all costs and will trade off allowing some open threes, something the Gators don’t always make.
With Ole Miss’ season in a tailspin and the Gators with an SEC Championship in their sights you couldn’t see two teams in more different positions, and Florida will look to assert themselves and stay on the winning path.
Florida and Ole Miss will tip off Saturday, February 21st at 12 PM ET and it will be televised on ESPN 2.