Holding on to the top spot in the SEC standings the Florida Gators (14-5, 5-1) will look to stay in front when they host the Auburn Tigers (12-7, 3-3 SEC).
Right now the Tigers are one of the more difficult teams in the country to evaluate as they have had some wild swings of excellent play while also mixing in some good stretches of disaster–and sometimes all within the same game.
For example:
On the opening night of the season the Tigers played Bethune-Cookman, an opponent near the bottom of the sport that they bought in order to try and start the year off with an easy win. That game went to overtime, but the Tigers did come away with a 95-90 win. Then, just a week and a half later, Auburn played a Houston team that has a chance at winning the National Championship and played them close, losing by just a single point. From then on Auburn got blasted by Arizona, Purdue, and Michigan in non-competitive games, before starting SEC play on a bad note losing to Georgia, Texas A&M, and Missouri. However, they have turned things around, and are coming off two wins against South Carolina and Ole Miss.
You got all that?
To recap, Auburn has played the #1, #2, #4, and #7 teams in KenPom giving them some great experience against the top of the sport, and they weren’t competitive at all against #1, #2, or #7, but had a great fight against #4. What this all means, we don’t really know–but they are yet to get a win over a team as high in the metrics as Florida.
Perhaps some of the swings in play has to do with year one of the Steven Pearl era, that’s right–STEVEN Pearl, not Bruce who made a surprise decision to retire late in the offseason cycle, leaving the Tigers with no real option other than to promote Steven. With the roster already built including a few returners from the tremendous team a year ago the stage was set for Steven to make some noise right away, and while there has been some good–there have certainly been some growing pains with the inconsistent play. Though it hasn’t always been smooth sailing, in the aggregate the Tigers are 30th in KenPom and right in the middle of the SEC standings with a great chance of making the NCAA Tournament, though they could really use a marquee win such as one over Florida.
Offense has been a strength for the Tigers this year, and they play a bit more structured than they did a year ago where they really relied on the individual play of stars to create and break down defenses. Notably, the three-point shooting has not been great–though many established players are shooting below their historic capabilities, and Auburn’s staff is hoping they are due for some positive regression.
One of the big stories of the college basketball offseason was the decision by Tahaad Pettiford to return to the Tigers, as he was a possible first round pick after a strong freshman campaign. He brings some juice to the point guard position as someone who can go and get a bucket whenever needed, though he is also someone who will look to get teammates involved. His numbers have taken a modest increase from last year as he now averages 13.9 points and 3.2 assists per game–so there was no sophomore slump here.
If you’re looking for one of the most underrated transfers in college basketball, look no further than forward Keyshawn Hall. This is a name you probably didn’t hear much in the portal, which is going to surprise you given that he averaged 18.8 points and 7.1 rebounds for UCF, though that may have played somewhat of a role in how he was valued. Hall has played at George Mason, UNLV, and UCF, and while he has always been productive–his teams haven’t won. He didn’t get the kind of offers that proven high-major production usually warrants and he ended up at Auburn where the Tigers’ investment has yielded excellent returns. Hall is averaging 20.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game, and could very well be the best player in the country that you haven’t really heard about. At 6’7” and 240 pounds he can do a bit of everything, running pick and rolls, isolating bigger forwards, or knocking down 40% of his threes. Hall is a mismatch for just about everyone, and Florida’s taller but skinnier bigs could have some issues with him.
Another fascinating player to look out for off the bench is Elyjah Freeman, a 6’8” wing who did something extremely rare–transferred to the SEC from a D-II school. This doesn’t happen often, but when you see Freeman you’ll be more shocked at how he ended up D-II in the first place. He is a prototypical tall, long wing who can make threes and soar above the rim for athletic dunks, and while his processing speed is still a bit slow as he adjusts to the level, his skill and athleticism is clearly SEC calibre.
The final X-factor is Filip Jovic, a Bosnian freshman who is part of the current class of pros from Europe coming to college basketball. A smooth 6’8” ball handler with all kinds of skill, Jovic has shown bursts such as scoring 23 against South Carolina the other night–but he can also get lost. The grit and grind SEC style is much different than the more chess-like European game Jovic is used to and he is still finding ways to be consistent within Auburn’s style while Auburn’s coaching staff still looks at how to better utilize him, and this results in nights where he is either the best player on the floor or someone a bit invisible. If Auburn is going to win, Jovic could play a huge role.
Auburn’s issues this season have largely come on the defensive end where they have struggled with fouling and haven’t been able to force turnovers. There aren’t any clear weak points or areas where they have been completely inept, but over 40 minutes where they don’t make things difficult on the offense and bail out different possessions with bad fouls their opponent has been able to steadily put together efficient performances.
When it comes to rebounding, Auburn has been excellent on the offensive glass ranking 9th in the country largely due to their length and athleticism, though their lack of bulk at the wings has made them a rather pedestrian defensive rebounding team at 163rd.
Florida and Auburn will tip off Saturday, January 24th at 4 PM ET and it will be televised on ESPN, but as you know with these afternoon starts the game before is likely to run long and this game is likely to be shown at the start on a different channel.