Non-conference play has come to a close and as we head into the meat of the season the Florida Gators (9-4) prepare to open up SEC play against the Missouri Tigers (10-3). Surprisingly, Florida is 0-3 in SEC openers under Todd Golden–but they should have a great chance to break that streak when they head to Missouri on Saturday.
Missouri is in year four of the Dennis Gates era, and boy has it had its ups and downs. The Tigers were able to unexpectedly make an NCAA Tournament and win a game in Gates’ first year before taking a massive step back in 2023-24 when they went 0-18, yes, completely winless, in SEC play, bringing up some questions about where things were headed. Then, Gates was able to bounce back last season as the Tigers made an NCAA Tournament and were one of the few teams to beat Florida in the regular season. Returning a few key pieces from last year’s team, Missouri was picked to finish 7th in the SEC preseason poll and were expected to comfortably make the NCAA Tournament.
Looking at their 10-3 record you might think they’re on track–but this is a perfect example of why simply looking at the win-loss columns can be misleading. Missouri is known for playing a weak non-conference schedule, though they actually played four high-major games this year which seldom happens. They lost three of those games to Notre Dame and to Kansas (by 20) before closing out non conference play with one of the biggest high-major on high-major beatdowns we saw this year as Illinois blasted them 91-48. Their one high-major win came over Minnesota, who currently sits outside the top-100 of KenPom and is functionally in mid-major range.
Even if Missouri’s buy game wins they didn’t look particularly sharp. Some of their results include beating Southeast Missouri by just 5 and Alabama State by 8, a few “too close for comfort” situations that not only hurt perception of the team but also cratered the Tigers in the predictive metrics, leaving them to be ranked 63rd in KenPom at the time of this article. Clearly things are not going to plan in Columbia, and the Gators will look to pounce and start SEC play with a win.
Most of Missouri’s issues so far have been on the defensive end where they are 128th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. While there is a lot of length and size on Missouri’s roster there isn’t a ton of mobility, and it has left them playing a conservative style that has been effective at contesting shots at the rim, but they have given up a boatload of threes. Currently 345th in the country in three-point attempts against, opponents have been able to freely line up from deep and while overall teams haven’t shot great against Missouri the high volume means that when there is a stretch where they are hot the points can come in bunches. Given how much Florida has struggled to shoot the three you can probably expect Missouri to pack the paint once again and dare the Gators to put up threes and Florida will have to make a few to at least soften up Missouri’s interior defense.
Feeding the interior defense of Missouri is the length they have in the frontcourt. Shawn Phillips (7’0”, 245), Luke Norweather (6’11”, 235), Jevon Porter (6’11”, 230), and Trent Burns (7’5”, 260–yes, the least talked about 7’5”+ player in the country) round out a deep center rotation, while returning leader Mark Mitchell patrols the “4” at a muscular 6’9”, 230. Jacob Crews plays a lot of minutes at the three standing at 6’8”, so Missouri does have the kind of bodies to throw at Florida that few teams do, but while the Tiger bigs have a lot of bulk and height they aren’t as mobile as what Florida offers. The size has resulted in some solid rebounding performances, and this will be a nice test to see if the Gators can once again establish themselves as the best rebounding team in the country.
Leading the way in scoring for Missouri is returner Mark Mitchell who is a load to handle on the inside. Averaging 17.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.9 assists he’s the clear engine of Missouri’s offense, operating from the mid-post and either bullying smaller defenders or using an excellent first step to blow by and get to the rim. While he’s not a threat to step out and shoot many threes, his incredible finishing at the rim and ability to draw fouls has made Mitchell a productive offensive player and one that can collapse a defense and create shots for teammates as well.
At the guard spot, junior Anthony Robinson has been Missouri’s best punch offensively at 13.3 points per game while adding 3.4 assists. With the way the Tigers play offense they don’t have a point guard who is going to rack up a ton of assists as they prefer to play inside out, but Robinson is the guy who is particularly active pushing the ball in transition looking for opportunities to find open shooters. He’s also hitting 41% of his threes, though he doesn’t shoot a lot unless they are wide open.
The much more dangerous shooter to be aware of is Jacob Crews who came to Missouri from UT Martin billed as a lethal shooter on the wing, though he hit a pedestrian 34% of his threes last year. This season we are finally seeing the deadeye shooting he possesses as he’s hit 51% of his threes making him one of the most dangerous shooters in the country. Florida will have to be aware of where he is on the floor particularly when he is guarded by Thomas Haugh who will occasionally roam deep into the paint as a help defender as Florida does not want him to get clean looks.
Missouri chose to schedule their last non-conference game way back on December 22nd, so they will have had nearly a week longer than Florida without a game. This could mean they will be extra prepared, but it also may mean they have some rust to shake off. Given how poorly the non-conference portion of the season went and how their last game was the 43-point shellacking from Illinois it might be best for them that they were able to get the extended break, but we’ll see on Saturday. The key to this game for Florida will be creating the shots they want as opposed to settling for the threes that Missouri wants to allow, but when those threes do come–at some point the Gators need to start making them.
Florida and Missouri will tip off Saturday, January 3rd at 8:30 PM ET and it will be televised on SEC Network.