Florida (5-4) just had one of their toughest two-game stretches of the season after going on the road to Duke and then playing UConn in what was a heavy Huskies crowd in New York, and while it might look like their difficulties have subsided for the moment they cannot take things likely in what could very well be a trap game scenario when they take on George Washington (8-2, though they play on Wednesday night in a game they will be heavily favored).
Yes, the Revolutionaries might not be at the same level as Duke and Connecticut, but they’re a team that has high-major talent that will compete for an NCAA Tournament berth, and they have been a bit under the radar due to their inability to get big teams to play them. Head coach Chris Caputo was open with the fact that he tried to get any high-major opponents to play them and simply no one would given how talented they thought George Washington was, but due to their conference (the A-10) they thought it was too dangerous a game relative to what the metrics would say. This means that Florida is the first, and only, high-major team that George Washington is going to play, and they’ll be prepared for the challenge. So far the Revs’ best win has been over South Florida (77th in KenPom), and their losses have come to Murray State and McNeese by a combined 7 points. Both of those teams are strong mid-majors that will be favorites in their league, but George Washington was still unlikely to come out of both with losses and they’ll now be looking for a marquee win.
One of the strengths of the George Washington roster is some solid continuity at some important positions, which is made even more impressive given how difficult it is to retain talent in leagues like the A-10 where anyone good enough to dominate there is good enough to play well at the high-major level. Some of these important pieces include Rafael Castro, Christian Jones, and Garrett Johnson–all who will play important roles on Saturday.
Leading the way has been Castro, a 6’11”, 220 pound center who is averaging 16.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks, showcasing his fluid movement abilities on both sides of the floor. Offensively Castro has excellent foot speed for a center and can cause issues in transition, and he has good hands around the rim to finish among other centers, and his leaping ability allows him to elevate over many defenders for athletic finishes as well. That athleticism is also displayed on the defensive end where he has had a number of highlight reel blocks already in this short season.
Continuity at the point guard spot is always a major luxury and George Washington has that with Christian Jones, a sophomore with good size at 6’4” who returned after starting throughout conference play as a freshman. Jones provides valuable rim pressure for the Revolutionaries and can get into the paint at will, at his height allows him to see over defenses to make the best available pass, something that has been very effective so far.
The reason Jones’ paint touches and kick out game have been so important is that shooting has been a strength of George Washington who puts up a lot of three-point looks and has been effective hitting them with five players shooting above 34% from deep, with one of those key shooters being Garrett Johnson. Johnson stands at 6’8” which allows him to get his shot off in just about any scenario, and after hitting 40% from deep last season he’s hitting at a 37% clip so far this year and he is someone the Gators will need to be aware of away from the ball.
Overall, offense has been the major strength for George Washington as they rank 20th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric which is ahead of the Gators who are 23rd. The Revolutionaries can get easy points in transition, they can create clean looks at the rim in the halfcourt, and even when things break down they have been able to salvage possessions with their shotmaking which makes them a dangerous club.
What has held the Revolutionaries back and what was their biggest problem in their losses was the defense. Currently George Washington is 158th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, and they haven’t been able to play the kind of scrappy defense they are looking to demonstrate. Last year the Revolutionaries forced a lot of turnovers and had success denying ball reversals and gambling for steals but they haven’t been as hard to play against this year, despite the fact that they have some good athletes and defensive-minded players on the roster. You can expect them to improve on this side of the floor, but if you’re looking for a vulnerability it’s clearly the defense.
Given how much Florida has struggled offensively at points this season, going up against the 158th ranked defense should give some hope that they’ll be able to get back on track. George Washington has decent size in the frontcourt but certainly can’t match the depth of the Gators, and you can expect another game where rebounding is in Florida’s favor. If the Gators can slow down the George Washington attack and keep them from getting hot from three, this could turn into a sneakily nice resume win.
Florida and George Washington will tip off Saturday, December 13th at 2:30 PM ET and it will be televised on ESPN 2.