The Florida Gators hold a 2-4 (1-2 SEC) record on the 2025 season following their 34-17 loss to Texas A&M in week seven. When you look at the remaining schedule which includes three teams ranked inside the AP Top 11, it’s difficult to even see a path to bowl eligibility.
Week eight marks the 57th meeting between Florida and Mississippi State including the 29th matchup in Gainesville. Florida has won two games in a row vs. the Bulldogs after a 45-28 win in Starkville on Sept. 21 of last season. The Gators have won 16 of the last 17 in Gainesville.
On paper, Mississippi State is a team Florida should handle fairly easily. But nothing has come easy for the Gators under Billy Napier, not even at home.
The Bulldogs have lost 14 SEC games in a row highlighted by their 0-8 SEC record in 2024. Their last win against a conference opponent was a 7-3 victory at Arkansas on October 21st, 2023. That victory also marks their only SEC win since the start of the 2023 season.
Despite being 0-2 to start conference play in 2025, the Bulldogs look much improved in Jeff Lebby’s second year as head coach. Mississippi State started 4-0 with a win over No.12 Arizona State. Their first loss was a thrilling 41-34 overtime game vs. No.11 Tennessee. Even in their 31-9 loss to No.4 Texas A&M, the Bulldogs were only down four points late in the third quarter before the Aggies pulled away.
Mississippi State is led by sixth year senior quarterback Blake Shapen, a graduate student that started his career at Baylor in 2020. Florida defensive coordinator Ron Roberts is familiar with Shapen’s game having coached at Baylor for three seasons while Shapen was on the roster.
The 6’1, 220-pound quarterback will use his athleticism to create plays whether that’s designed runs or escaping the pocket. He’s not a Marcel Reed level athlete, but you have to respect his willingness to run. His best trait is his accuracy, especially with a clean pocket. Shapen won’t wow you with his arm strength, but he’s capable of placing passes through tight windows.
With a clean pocket, Shapen has completed 73.9% of his passes for 1,098 yards, nine touchdowns, and one interception this season. Where Shapen gets in trouble: when he’s pressured. The dual threat QB is just 12-30 passing (40%) for 106 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions when facing pressure. Despite four interceptions on the season, Pro Football Focus claims Shapen has just two turnover worthy throws this season, showcasing his good decision making.
Florida will need to get pressure as you can’t let Shapen sit in a clean pocket under Jeff Lebby. The good news for Florida: Shapen has been sacked 16 times this season and Mississippi State ranks 72nd in the country in pass protection, according to PFF.
Mississippi State averages 394.7 yards per game which ranks 65th in the country. The Bulldogs average 33.7 points per game, tied for 44th in the country. The Bulldogs will be without star running back Fluff Bothwell, a sophomore that’s totaled 465 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 5.5 yards per carry in 2025. Bothwell was a standout true freshman at South Alabama last season, rushing for 834 yards and 13 touchdowns on 7.5 yards per carry. Bothwell is a significant loss for Mississippi State as they’ve leaned on him quite a bit this season.
Even without Bothwell, the Bulldogs will look to establish the running game. Excluding the 16 sacks, Mississippi State has 228 carries to 156 pass attempts this season.
Defensively, Mississippi State is much improved from their disastrous 2024 season where they sported one of the worst defenses in the country. Through six games of the 2025 season, the Bulldogs rank 46th in total defense, T-38th in scoring defense, and 51st in third down defense.
Tackling has been an issue for MSU, particularly at the linebacker position. Linebackers Zakari Tillman and Jalen Smith have combined for 16 missed tackles through six games while the team total sits at 64. For comparison, Florida has missed 40 tackles.
It’s a much-improved Mississippi State team, but the Gators shouldn’t lose this game. We’ve seen crazier things happen, however.
Mississippi State is coming off a bye week, searching for their first conference in nearly two years while the Gators are dealing with plenty of noise around the program regarding Billy Napier’s job status, which could be in jeopardy as soon as Sunday morning.
Kickoff is set for 4:15 EST. on SEC Network.