There’s plenty of cautious optimism heading into Florida’s 2025 season. The Gators have their most talented roster since Billy Napier’s arrival in 2022 and are coming off a four-game winning streak to end the 2024 campaign.
While Florida’s goals are to compete for a championship, there’s several trends they’ll have to change in order to accomplish that.
I provide four questions that could make or break Florida’s season.
Can Florida’s defense find consistency?
Florida’s defense under Billy Napier has been abysmal, to put it bluntly. From 2022 to 2024, the Gators have ranked 87th, 78th, and 44th in scoring defense while ranking 87th, 71st, and 76th in total defense.
Florida improved defensively last year, specifically at the end of the season where they held their final four opponents to an average of 13 points per game. However, the start of the season was a different story; the Gators allowed an average of 34 points per game against their first three power four opponents, resulting in a 2-2 start to the season.
Florida won’t have the luxury of starting slow again given they go on the road to face LSU and Miami in weeks three and four. The Gators likely need to win at least one of those games to remain in the legitimate hunt for the college football playoffs, so a fast start on defense is imperative.
As Napier said last week, the Gators are on a mission to play championship level defense, something they haven’t done to date. What does a championship level defense look like statistically? Seven of the 12 playoff teams last year finished in the top 30 in both scoring and total defense. Six of the 12 playoff teams finished in the top 11 in both statistics. All 12 teams finished in the top 50 in scoring defense.
We saw improvements last season, but we need to see consistency if Florida wants to make the playoffs in 2025.
Will DJ Lagway stay healthy?
This question could go for just about any team in the country, but it needs to be said given Lagway’s injury riddled offseason. Florida needs their future star quarterback to stay healthy in 2025 if they want to maximize their potential. Lagway provides Florida’s offense will a different level of confidence given his unique arm talent and athletic ability. It doesn’t feel like the Gators will be out of any game as long as Lagway is on the field.
Can Florida win on the road?
The Gators hold a 4-9 record on the road in three years under Napier. If you include neutral site games, Florida holds a 5-13 record. In comparison, Florida holds a 14-6 record at home.
Given the difficult schedule once again in 2025, the Gators will be challenged on the road. Florida is set to face three preseason top 10 teams on the road or in a neutral site. The Gators will also take on No.21 Ole Miss in Oxford and Kentucky in Lexington, a team they have not beaten on the road since 2019.
Florida likely won’t be able to make the playoffs without winning multiple big-time games on the road in tough environments. The Gators have to find a way to win away from the Swamp.
Can Florida improve in 11-personnel?
A large topic of discussion this offseason has been Napier’s play calling and personnel formations. It’s no secret that Napier loves his two tight end sets, but Florida still operated in 11-personnel on 63.28% of their plays last year, and it’s an area they have to improve on. In 2024, the Gators average 6.20 yards per play in 11-personnel, which ranked 10th in the SEC.
Florida created quite a few explosive plays out of 11-personnel last season thanks to some electric throws from DJ Lagway. However, they struggled with consistency, posting a 41.29 success rate, the 12th best in the SEC. In comparison, the Gators posted the 7th best success rate in 12-personnel last season and led the conference in yards per play.
To date, Napier has been much more comfortable as a play caller in 12-personnel. While having that in your back pocket is great, Florida’s offense will need to improve in 11-personnel if they want to take the next step.