Earning their ticket with a spirited win over Auburn in the Final Four, the Florida Gators will now set their sights towards the ultimate goal–the National Championship game against the Houston Cougars.
Heading into the NCAA Tournament, two of the hottest teams that everyone was picking in their bracket was Florida on the “left” side and Duke in the “right.” Florida was a team that was playing their best basketball heading into the postseason, and Duke was right there with them–though their hot stretch went a little further back, having only 1 loss since the end of November. It really looked like it was going to be the Blue Devils to join the Gators in the National Championship as they were up on the Cougars 59-45 with just over eight minutes remaining, and with all the momentum in their favor.
Then, everything changed. Houston started knocking down shot after shot, and their defense was clamping down on the other end allowing nothing easy. Duke’s lead was evaporating like vapor, and suddenly it looked like Houston had a chance. With 20 seconds left and Duke at the line already up 1, it still looked like the Blue Devils were in a great place to hold on. Unfortunately, Tyrese Proctor missed a free throw and the ball caromed in the direction of freshman phenom Cooper Flagg–though it looked like it would fall short of his (rather long) arms and fall into the hands of a Cougar. Despite this obstacle, Flagg reached over the back of the man boxing him out, making some contact as he contested the rebound. Despite a relative lack of impact, the nearby official confidently blew his whistle and called Flagg for a foul, sending Houston to the line to shoot two in front of the stunned fans. These free throws put the Cougars ahead, and after Flagg missed a turnaround jumper on the other end, Houston hit two more free throws to seal it.
Throughout the NCAA Tournament it has been Florida talked about as a team of destiny–a team that came into March Madness playing their best basketball. They survived a major scare against UConn, drew a Maryland team that was distracted due to having a coach set to leave for Villanova, and then needed Walter Clayton heroics to overcome a huge deficit to Texas Tech. In the Final Four they saw an Auburn team whose two best players were handcuffed due to injury, with both only able to play their best for a single half before running out of steam. In a lot of ways, this Florida team looks like fate has looked upon them favorably.
Similarly, Houston has also had somewhat of a charmed last few weeks. They did start on the wrong foot, having been given the misfortune of playing Gonzaga in the Round Of 32. While Gonzaga’s resume suggested their seed was appropriate, the predictive metrics thought they were one of the best teams in the country–such as KenPom having them 8th nationally. Houston was able to win that game by 5, though many expected them to be upset in this scenario. Next, they had a tight game with Purdue where they only won by 2–surviving a wicked comeback by a scrappy, veteran team. They did get lucky with their next matchup which was to Tennessee, a team that plays largely the same style as Houston, except they just aren’t quite as good at it. Houston won that game by 19.
Then, it was the game with Duke where it seemed they were all but finished before a miraculous comeback. This Championship game appears to be a meeting of two teams of destiny, and if you love the sport of college basketball this is about all you could ask for.
Houston being good is no anomaly–they have been one of the top programs in the country over the last five years. Here are their KenPom finishes over that time:
2025: 2nd
2024: 2nd
2023: 2nd
2022: 2nd
2021: 5th
Oh, and if you want to go back a few more years:
2020: 14th
2019: 12th
2018: 18th
Not too shabby.
Four straight seasons as the second best team in KenPom is a remarkable feat–just imagine if Florida was able to replicate their regular season success for the next three years and how impressive that would be. Unfortunately for the Cougars, where they have fallen short is in the NCAA Tournament. They haven’t had any monumental upsets or gotten clipped in the first round, but they haven’t been able to go on the type of run to the Championship Game that you would expect from the second best team in the country with a 1-seed.
One of the theories why they have fallen short is the distinct style of play–one of absolute defensive pressure and intensity, where they are as aggressive as anyone in the country. The number one defense in the country according to KenPom, Houston is a team that has become known for their relentless effort on defense, when it comes to scooping up loose balls, and the effort on the glass. They will double team the post, trap pick and rolls, and aggressively bump cutters, all in an attempt to make the offense uncomfortable. This style has had a ton of regular season success, but it hasn’t yet taken them to where they want to be in the NCAA Tournament.
This is likely because the Cougars have struggled a lot offensively. Much of the reason makes sense–Sampson is a coach who is all about defense, and when it comes to the players he recruits it is all about defense, toughness, coachability…and, well–that’s it. Houston will consistently roll out the best defenders in the sport, but oftentimes those types of players aren’t the best on the other side of the floor. If there is any coach that’s going to live with that it’s Sampson, and bringing in those types of guys has resulted in an incredible run from year to year as you’ve seen.
Fortunately for Cougar fans, this year Sampson has been able to generate more offense than in previous years. Leading the way in scoring is LJ Cryer, a 6’1”, 200 pound combo guard who can get paint touches and use excellent footwork to convert at the rim. Joining him in the backcourt is Milos Uzan, a transfer from Oklahoma who brings a level of creativity with the ball that you aren’t used to having from a Houston guard. Returner Emmanuel Sharp is someone who has hit some big late game shots, and is often someone they go to at the end of games and shot clocks.
What has really made this Houston group special is their three-point shooting. The Cougars have had a reputation for years as a team that couldn’t shoot, but remarkably this year’s team is number one in the country in three-point percentage at 39.9%, and that was on full display in the comeback against Duke where they needed this shot making to put points on the board in a hurry. Before you go saying they are the “best” shooting team in the country it’s worth noting that they don’t shoot a ton of them ranking 289th in the country in attempts, so they don’t take a ton of them. However, when they do the stroke is pure–and when they keep games low scoring with their defense, their brief spurts of three-point shooting can have extra value. As you know, Todd Golden’s defense is all about taking away the three-point line and this will be heightened against the Cougars so look at this to be a focus.
This game will also be an all out melee on the glass. Like the Gators, Houston prides themselves on offensive rebounding and is currently 10th nationally in offensive rebounding and they will often send four players to the glass when a shot goes up. Given the importance of rebounding to both teams, whoever is able to secure more possessions through the glass is going to be well positioned to win.
Looking at Houston’s roster you might think they are undersized, with starting center Joseph Tugler only listed at 6’8”, while power forward J’Wan Roberts measures at 6’7”. While that might be the case, both of these players have humongous 7’0”+ wingspans so they play bigger than their listed height, and it will make for a very important matchup.
Another element of this game to watch for is Houston’s ability to create turnovers. As mentioned previously Houston is going to hunt steals aggressively with traps and double teams, and as you know–Florida has struggled with turnovers as of late. Houston is 20th in the country in steal rate and that is a ranking they have achieved playing against a very difficult schedule, so they will go hard at taking the ball away from Florida’s guards, especially given how both Clayton and Alijah Martin are not true point guards.
While Houston’s defense is outstanding, they do give up a ton of threes ranking 313th in the country in this category. Despite their trapping defense that will get them extended Houston still makes it a priority to take away the paint, and they are willing to sacrifice three-point attempts against in order to do that. Florida, of course, wants to take a lot of threes–and they’ll be free to get off a ton against the Cougars. Given how Florida’s guards could struggle after the Houston defenders to finish at the rim, taking threes could be a much better gameplan, and if they are hitting them early it could force some adjustments from the Cougars.
This is setting up for a legendary National Championship game between two teams that play contrasting styles, and the team that is able to dictate the pace and style of play is likely to be the one that comes out victorious.
Florida and Houston will tip off in the final game of the college basketball season on Monday, April 7th at 8:50 ET, and it will be televised on CBS.