Sitting at 20-11 (1-8 SEC) on the 2025 season, the Florida Gators baseball team is running out of time to make a case for an NCAA Tournament bid. With 21 conference games to be played, the Gators would likely need to finish 12-9 to feel good about their chances.
While that’s certainly possible, it has to start this weekend with a home series win over No.23 Vanderbilt. If Florida loses their 4th straight series, the steep hole gets deeper, and the chances of a postseason berth look very slim.
The good news is that Florida’s schedule looks a lot easier on paper over the next month. After facing three top ten teams to start the year, the Gators are set to face three teams that rank in the bottom half of the conference, including a one-win Mississippi State ballclub and a zero-win Missouri team, who sits dead last in SEC play.
However, you can’t look ahead if you are Kevin O’Sullivan. Florida needs to take it one game, one pitch at a time.
Vanderbilt holds a 21-8 (4-5 SEC) record on the season with their lone series win in conference play being a sweep vs Texas A&M. The Commodores lost two of three games to Auburn and got swept by No.2 Arkansas most recently.
The Gators have history on their side as the home team has dominated the series in recent memory. Florida has won four-straight series vs. the Commodores in Gainesville with their last home series loss back in 2014. Florida swept Vanderbilt in the last meeting at Condron Family Ballpark in 2023 (10-0, 6-2, 6-2) while the Dores took two out of three in Nashville one year ago. The last time the road team claimed a series in this rivalry was in 2017, when the Gators won two of three in Nashville.
Overall, Florida leads the series at 148-82-1 backed by a dominant 84-24 home mark (.778). The Gators are 35-24 overall and 19-5 at home vs. Vanderbilt under Head Coach Kevin O’Sullivan.
PITCHING MATCHUPS
Friday: RHP Liam Peterson vs (4-1, 3.38 ERA) vs LHP JD Thompson (2-2, 4.62 ERA)
Saturday: RHP Aidan King (3-1, 3.03 ERA) vs RHP Cody Bowker (2-1, 2.78 ERA)
Sunday: TBA vs TBA
SCOUTING THE COMMODORES
The first thing to point out about Vanderbilt is their lack of power at the plate having hit just 24 home runs this season, a number that ranks T-176th in the country. Only eight of those big flies have come in conference play. For comparison, Florida has launched 45 home runs and 12 in conference play while facing far better competition.
Vanderbilt holds a less than impressive .275 team batting average, ranking T-157th in the country. That batting average has plummeted to .235 in conference play. The top of Vandy’s order consists of five guys hitting over .300, but there’s a rather steep drop off at the bottom of their lineup.
So how have the Commodores found four wins in conference play? For starters, they’ve pitched to a 3.65 ERA as a team, which ranks 12th in all of college baseball. Great pitching has been a staple of the Vanderbilt program in recent memory, and this year is no different. From starting pitching to a deep bullpen, Vanderbilt has been able to keep themselves in games.
Much like Florida has done this season, Vanderbilt will make an effort to be aggressive on the base paths to make up for a lack of power, swiping 48 bags this season on 54 attempts. While most teams in the SEC won’t lay down sac bunts, Vandy has done it more than most teams in the conference, dropping down 11 successful sac bunts this year, tied for the third most in the SEC. Look for Vandy to try small ball in close games this weekend while leaning on their pitching staff.
FLORIDA BATS NEED TO STAY HOT
After a sluggish start offensively through the first two SEC series’, the Gators put together their best offensive showing vs Ole Miss last weekend. Florida scored 25 runs in a three-game set including 20 in the final two games. That success carried over to the midweek vs North Florida, where the Gators launched five home runs in the contest, which accounted for all of their eight runs.
The three-game set opens on Friday night at 6:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network+. Game two begins on Saturday at 1 p.m. on SEC Network+ while Sunday’s series finale airs on SEC Network at 12 p.m.