With college basketball steadily moving towards the postseason the Gators will try to keep their focus Saturday as they close out the SEC regular season against the Ole Miss Rebels. For Florida, this game doesn’t have any meeting from an SEC standings standpoint. With the win over Alabama the Gators (26-4, 13-4 SEC) secured the second spot in the league behind Auburn, but the Tigers have already locked up the top seed with no chance of Florida catching them. From an NCAA Tournament standpoint the Gators would love this win in order to bolster their chances at a 1-seed, and they’re already in good position after the road win at Alabama.
This game will have a lot more importance to Ole Miss who at 21-7 and 10-7 in the SEC are right in the blender where Saturday’s results will have a big impact on seeding going into postseason play. The Rebels currently sit at 7th, but have an identical record to Texas A&M and Missouri. Ole Miss is also being chased by Kentucky at 9-8, so they won’t want to take a loss.
From an NCAA Tournament standpoint the Rebels are comfortably in the field as a 7-seed right now according to Bracket Matrix but they’d love to move up and put themselves in a better situation to go on a run. A win over Florida would likely be worth a seed line bump, so they’ll have a lot to play for on Saturday.
Ole Miss is in year two of the Chris Beard era and have seen a boost from last season where they finished 7-11 in the SEC. Never one to play too challenging of a non-conference schedule the Rebels were fairly quiet in November and December without many marquee games but they did get wins over BYU and Louisville when those clubs weren’t playing all that well, and after late season surges the wins are looking much better. SEC play has been a mix of good and bad for Ole Miss who has had some huge wins over Alabama and Tennessee but also has taken a lot of losses against the middle of the pack in the league. It’s a rather interesting resume for Ole Miss as there are many teams in the SEC who can beat who they are supposed to but struggle to get big wins, and the Rebels are somewhat unique in the fact that they have some great wins, have taken care of business against the bottom of the league, but have taken a much of losses to the middle of the pack. It has still resulted in a positive season no doubt, and it also suggests that the Rebels are capable of beating the Gators if they bring their A-game.
When Beard went to build out his roster in the transfer portal this year his focus was clear–it was getting as old as possible. Some coaches, like Todd Golden, prefer bringing in players with multiple eligibility in order to hopefully get some positive returns for multiple years, but Beard is all about being competitive right away and in order to do so he went as old as possible, bringing in extremely veteran players like Malik Dia (Belmont), Sean Pedulla (Virginia Tech), Dre Davis (Seton Hall), Mikeal Brown-Jones (UNC Greensboro), and Davon Barnes (Sam Houston State). Looking at the portal as a whole these weren’t the top players that were on everyone’s list, but they are all proven starters with multiple years of experience. Because of this, Ole Miss is one of the oldest teams in the country with an average of 3.47 years of experience from each player on the roster, a truly remarkable number. For reference, Florida’s average experience is 2.42 years. This experience has allowed the Rebels to be competitive with teams that have more talent, and they’re banking on the wealth of knowledge to help them in postseason play.
One area the experience has helped them is on the offensive end where the Rebels play an unselfish style that showcases a lot of ball movement and inside-out play that makes them difficult to guard. Sean Pedulla, a smooth jump shooter, leads the Rebels in scoring at 14.9 points per game, but he isn’t someone that hogs the ball or someone that’s a focus in all the offensive actions. Ole Miss has six players that average double digits in scoring and the balanced attack makes them immune from long scoring droughts as even if one player is taken out by the defense or another is having a bad night there are other capable scorers ready to pick up the slack. Currently 24th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, Ole Miss is definitely at their best when the offense is humming and they are making the defense work with multiple passes on each possession.
What makes the amount of ball movement Ole Miss utilizes even more impressive is the fact that they seem to never turn the ball over. Currently the Rebels are number one in the country in offensive turnover rate, meaning their ball security is as good as it gets. This will be a challenge for the Gators for a number of reasons. First of all, it means that Ole Miss will get a shot off on nearly every possession, so the Gators can’t fall asleep and rely on their speed and athleticism to recover. Secondly, the Gators get a lot of their points in transition after they turn over their opponent and that won’t be there against the Rebels. Because Ole Miss doesn’t turn the ball over much they don’t allow their opponents to go on many big runs, and big runs have been what has fueled the Gators all season long.
The high level of experience also helps Ole Miss on the defensive end. They aren’t as athletic or quick as a lot of the top defenses in the SEC but they make up for those limitations with a lot of savvy players who think the game at a high level and can make the correct reads and rotations on dribble penetration to help their teammates before recovering. Malik Dia does provide a nice presence in the middle of the floor and 6’6” Dre Davis is a sneaky good shot blocker from the wing but Ole Miss doesn’t rely on anyone to be a hero on the defensive end–it is all about connectivity and playing an intelligent brand of basketball.
For Florida, this game will be all about executing their half court offense at a high level. They’re not going to get as many points in transition as they’re used to since Ole Miss protects the basketball so well, and the Rebels are so savvy on the defensive end the Gators won’t be able to get back cuts or easy dump offs against lazy defenders like they have got in some games this season. Fortunately, Florida just had one of their best half court offensive games of the season against Alabama so they should be going into this game confidently.
Florida and Ole Miss will tip off Saturday, March 8th at 6 PM ET, and it will be televised on SEC Network.