News broke yesterday that the lawsuits between FSU and Clemson against the ACC will be settled. We’re still waiting on some of the details, but the broad strokes are done.
The biggest takeaway from it is unequal revenue sharing. Teams will get revenue mainly based on five-year rolling averages of television ratings. That favors Clemson, and to a lesser extent FSU, as they are among the conference’s top draws. It also benefits Georgia Tech, believe it or not, since they get a bump from playing UGA.
The other big development is a reduction of the cost to leave the league. It starts at $165 million next year and declines $18 million per year until leveling off at $75 million in 2030-31. Under the original grant of rights, schools would have to pay something around $120 million plus whatever’s left of the cost of their individual media rights.
Thus, the ACC in its current form now has an expiration date of 2030. It doesn’t get any cheaper to wait to leave after that, and in the long term, the upper crust of the league probably will make more from membership in either the Big Ten or SEC than even from getting a jumbo sized piece of the ACC pie.
Remember that this is not the only league to try unequal revenue sharing. The Big 12 did that for Texas and Oklahoma, and the Mountain West did it for Boise State. You may have noticed the ‘Horns and Sooners playing something other than a Big 12 schedule this year, and the Broncos are going to help rebuild the shell of the Pac-12.
No one demands unequal revenue sharing if they’re content to stay in their conference. It’s always a concession to keep teams from leaving, and it can only temporarily pause their movement towards the exit. Clemson and FSU were willing to strike a deal right now because they looked around and found no takers. The Big Ten is trying to digest the expected additions of the Los Angeles schools plus the unexpected additions of Oregon and Washington. The SEC is adjusting to Texas and OU, and ESPN isn’t motivated to pay schools more to be SEC members than the current ACC discount rate.
That said, the Big Ten’s current TV deal is up in 2030, and the SEC’s is up in 2034. It’s probably (read: definitely) not a coincidence that the ACC’s exit fee quits going down right as the Big Ten will be renegotiating its contracts.
If the SEC wants in on the bidding for free agents, it’ll need ESPN’s help because its deal runs longer than the Big Ten’s. However, the Big Ten quit ESPN for a mix of Fox, CBS, and NBC last time around, so if ESPN/ABC wants to broadcast home games with Clemson and FSU — or, likely, North Carolina or Miami, and maybe more — they’ll not stand in the way of the SEC expanding.
I am now and have always been on Team The SEC Doesn’t Need to Do Anything. However, I fully expect it to pursue ACC teams in four or five years because it doesn’t trust the Big Ten not to. And even though the Big Ten doesn’t need to add more teams either, it will do the same because it doesn’t trust the SEC not to.
So if there has to be expansion, the best course of action is fairly obvious: the SEC adds four ACC schools, likely Clemson, FSU, Miami, and North Carolina. I’d much rather Virginia Tech than Miami, but if Mario Cristobal can keep the team’s floor high for the next few years, the Hurricanes will be one of the top menu options.
With a 20 team league, there’s no good way to have everyone play everyone else regularly while maintaining a non-conference schedule of any real size. So my recommendation? Split the league into two divisions of ten teams each.
Each division will play a round robin schedule. Everyone would get a permanent rival from the other division and a rotating game, and then everyone gets one cupcake. That’s your 12 games. It’s less one conference than two small ones with a scheduling arrangement, but that’s how it goes.
If you want a 20-team league, you’re not going to get a compact rotation where everyone plays everyone else regularly. You’re also fairly well locked into a ten or 11-game schedule. Divisions means at least ten. The only pod-less option where the math works is three permanent rivals and eight rotating games. Want to go to four pods of five teams each? You’ll play either three podmates plus another pod to make seven — which isn’t going to fly with TV partners — or 11 if you play two pods. I guess you could do nine games if you start doing half-pods, but once you’re doing half-pods, it’s getting quite ridiculous.
I like 20 because I’d make the divisions the ten original SEC members in one and the ten post-1991 expansion teams in the other. The SEC could actually honor its tradition and not tie itself into knots trying to preserve old rivalries, and then we’d get a taste of the long-speculated Big 12-ACC merger. The permanent cross-division rivalry would be needed essentially to preserve just one game, that being Florida-FSU, but there are other options to try to gain intrigue. The league could continue to try to play up LSU-Texas A&M and do a basketball-themed series with Kentucky and North Carolina. There are options, but I also know that grouping the Original Ten back together is a nostalgic pipe dream.
I don’t yearn for this world, and honestly I’d prefer going back to the 12-team SEC than staying at 16 or going to more teams. However, the powers-that-be don’t make the game for me. They know they have my viewership no matter what. If this is what they think will juice some additional marginal viewership from NFL fans who recognize a few dozen college helmets at best, then that’s what they’ll do.