After handing the Auburn Tigers their first loss of the SEC season the Florida Gators (20-3, 7-3 SEC) will be riding high when they head to Starkville to take on Mississippi State (17-6, 5-5 SEC).
It was looking like Auburn had complete control of the SEC race at 9-0 entering Saturday’s game but with the Gators getting the win the Tigers have just a two-game lead (along with Alabama who also now sits at 9-1) and Florida has a reasonable chance at catching them. Auburn and Alabama will still play each other twice in the remainder of the season which is a huge benefit to the Gators who are trying to catch both of them, and the Tigers also have a fairly challenging schedule outside of that. Meanwhile the Gators have a much easier schedule (for as much as there can be “easier” games in the SEC) and it gives them somewhat of a shot at taking the league’s regular season crown.
Of course, if they want to reach that goal they need to take care of teams like Mississippi State and that means the Gators will have to compose themselves after the monster win against Auburn and refocus for a Bulldogs team that has been feisty.
Going the route of most SEC teams the Bulldogs didn’t schedule a particularly challenging non-conference schedule and they got out of that portion of the season with wins over SMU, Pittsburgh, and Memphis, while taking a loss to Butler in a game they’d love to have back. In SEC play they’ve been solid at 5-5, and this is where you’ve got to look at the unbalanced schedule of the SEC to really help paint a picture of the records. The Bulldogs have lost to Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Missouri–all top-25 KenPom teams, and four teams that have at one point been favorites to win the league title. Their wins have come against South Carolina (twice), Vanderbilt, Georgia, and rival Ole Miss. Generally speaking the Bulldogs have been able to take care of business in games that they’ve been favored in, though they haven’t yet been able to take down a truly elite opponent, and a win over Florida would unquestionably be their biggest win of the season.
According to analytics tool KenPom the Bulldogs are the 31st ranked team in the country, so the metrics have been rather kind. Bracketmatrix, a composite of the top bracketologists in the world (a tool I will certainly be referencing a lot in the final month of the season) suggests that Mississippi State is currently slated to be a 7-seed which, as a 5-5 SEC team, speaks to both their quality and the quality of the league.
This is year three of the Chris Jans era in Starkville, and so far things have been off to an excellent start. In year one he defied the odds and made the NCAA Tournament as an 11-seed before improving last year and earning an 8-seed. As previously mentioned they are currently on track to make The Big Dance once again, and if they accomplish that it would certainly be a tremendous feat for Jans to take them to the Tournament in each of his first three years.
What’s particularly interesting about this year’s iteration of the Bulldogs is that they are playing completely differently than Jans’ teams of the past. Over recent years Jans has been known as a defensive-minded coach who brings in junkyard dogs to play tough and grind out wins, and it’s a style that has been successful. However, this season the Bulldogs have been all about offense, featuring a potent attack that sees them put up big point totals with efficiency. Currently Mississippi State is 19th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, and they’ve accomplished that by being excellent in transition, precise in the half court, and dominant on the offensive glass.
Leading the way offensively for the Bulldogs is sophomore Josh Hubbard, a player who quietly was one of the best freshmen in the country last season and is having no such thing as a sophomore slump. A slippery 5’10” scoring machine, Hubbard is averaging 17.5 points and 3.1 assists per game while shooting 36% from three and he’ll be at the top of Florida’s scouting report as they try to slow down the Bulldogs. Hubbard is an outstanding ball handler who has a lightning quick first step and it always seems like he can get into the paint with every touch. Three-point shots come in volume from Hubbard and while his percentage is good but not great, the sheer amount of them he takes means that a 36% average is an excellent mark and defenses should be concerned every time he puts up an attempt. Last season Hubbard gashed the Gators for 26 points as the bigger Florida guards struggled to keep their feet in front of him and Florida could have similar issues this year if they don’t maintain a high level of focus, so Hubbard is definitely a player to watch out for.
Past Hubbard, 6’10”, 235 pound KeShawn Murphy is also a player to watch for as a 11.1 point, 7.3 rebound per game banger on the inside. Murphy is an excellent partner for Hubbard in the screen and roll game and is a big target thundering towards the rim–the kind of prototypical SEC big man that is going to make you work on every single possession.
This game will also mark Florida’s first meeting versus former Gator Riley Kugel, who initially committed to Mississippi State out of high school before ultimately going to Florida before transferring to Starkville. So far Kugel has had a similar type impact to what he had with the Gators, avering 9.7 points per game after averaging 9.9 and 9.2 in his two seasons in Gainesville. His shooting numbers have improved so those numbers are coming more efficiently, but he’s still somewhat of a boom or bust player who has been their best player in wins over Memphis, SMU, Ole Miss, and South Carolina–but has struggled greatly in some of their losses and was nearly invisible against Missouri and Alabama recently. If Kugel plays well he is a huge X-factor for the Bulldogs as a weapon off the bench, though he’s not someone they rely on to be a regular driver of the offense.
While offensively things have gone really well for Mississippi State, the defensive side has been a struggle. On paper they should have some quality defensive pieces such as KeShawn Murphy, Michael Nwoko, and RJ Melendez, but for whatever reason things haven’t come together and they have been leaking points at times this season. Their better defensive pieces are largely in the frontcourt while the guards are more geared to the offensive side of the floor which has presented some issues, as they haven’t been able to provide ball pressure or disruption on the perimeter and have instead relied on bigs to make things happen whenever there is penetration. There have been some big point totals allowed in Mississippi State’s losses and you know that Florida is capable of putting points on the board, so the Bulldogs will have to tighten things up on that side of the floor if they want to come away with a win.
Overall Mississippi State is a solid SEC team with some explosive scorers and a great head coach who has them playing cohesive basketball. The Bulldogs don’t turn the ball over, they are an excellent offensive rebounding team, and they have one of the league’s best scorers in Josh Hubbard who can go nuclear and will his team to victory almost single handedly when the threes are falling. If Florida is unfocused after a massive win at Auburn, Mississippi State is easily talented enough to humble them. This will be yet another big SEC game to look forward to.
Florida and Mississippi State tip off Tuesday, February 11th at 7 PM ET, and it will be televised on ESPN 2.