Florida avoided a loss against South Carolina with a clever switch to a press and a relentless work ethic down the stretch and they’ll look to build on their 17-2 (4-2 SEC) record when they host Georgia (14-5, 2-4 SEC) on Saturday.
Georgia is in their third season under Mike White and has seen a noticeable step up in production each year after they went 16-16 in season one and 20-17 in season two, with this looking to be an even more improved team. The predictive metrics would suggest this at least with Georgia currently sitting at 36th in KenPom–a significant improvement from last year when the Bulldogs were 84th.
It was big news when Georgia cracked the AP Top 25 just two weeks ago after beating Kentucky and Oklahoma, but the celebration was short lived. Immediately after the ranking Tennessee hammered them by 18, which the Vols can do to even good teams, and Georgia even felt good after the next game which was just a 2-point loss to Auburn. However, any “good loss” moral victories certainly left the building on Wednesday when the Bulldogs lost to Arkansas (who was playing without one of their best players in Boogie Fland) giving the Razorbacks their first SEC win. That means Georgia will enter Saturday’s game against Florida on a three-game losing streak and having lost four of their last six and they’ll be desperate to keep things from falling off the rails.
This is where the strength of the SEC can make it difficult to evaluate just how good or bad a team is. On one hand the Bulldogs have been able to stay competitive with some good teams which has kept them respectable in the predictive metrics, but on the other hand they are 2-4 and haven’t been able to find a way to win some of these close games.
As has often been the case in Mike White’s career he has avoided the bad losses (their worst coming to Arkansas who is 54th in KenPom) he has struggled to get the big win. Currently their best win of the season is against Kentucky who is 19th in KenPom (they notably won that game 82-69–a decisive victory over a team that beat the Gators) with their second being right behind with St. John’s (20th in KenPom). These are solid wins that signify a much better Georgia team than the prior two seasons, but they’ll be looking for a victory over Florida to really put themselves in a strong NCAA Tournament case.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Mike White-led Georgia team is all about defense. The Bulldogs have been tremendous on their end, ranking 14th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric and they’ve been able to play the exact style White is looking for–fast, physical, and disruptive. Oftentimes when you talk about teams playing “fast” it’s referring to the offensive end and particularly with transition but this is a Georgia team that plays noticeably fast on the defensive end, flying around and creating havoc while sprinting to the next rotation to take away any easy passing lanes or drives to the rim. When you look at the teams Florida has struggled with this season many play this style of disruptive defense and this is going to be a focus for them from a scouting standpoint. Georgia will make it difficult to reverse the ball and try to force the Gators into one on one play, and while the Gators do have one of the great isolation scorers in the sport in Walter Clayton Jr. Florida still would like to keep a more team oriented attack.
At the center of Georgia’s defense is the rim protection provided by Asa Newell, RJ Godfrey, and Somto Cyril, all of whom are capable of flying over from the weak side to get their hand on a layup attempt. This allows guards like Dakota Leffew and Silas Demary to be aggressive on the perimeter knowing that if they end up giving up drives they have length behind them to clean up the mistake. Length is the name of the game for Georgia who likes to start three 6’5” guards in the backcourt with 6’8” RJ Godfrey at power forward and 6’11” Asa Newell at center, and while they might not have a lot of bulk or strength there is length and speed everywhere and it has made for the exact defense that Mike White has wanted to create.
Since he’s already been referenced a few times for his outstanding defense, it’s time to really put a focus on Asa Newell. A freshman from Montverde Academy, Newell was the 19th ranked player in the 2024 class and a player that the Gators had a lot of interest in before he ultimately chose Georgia. Newell has been a revelation for the Bulldogs providing the exact kind of mobility and shot blocking White needs on the defensive end while also providing huge offensive upside leading the Bulldogs with 15.5 points per game. Newell has excellent face up skills with a smooth touch in the area just outside the paint, and the athleticism to finish strong when he does get to the rim.
While Georgia has been able to play an excellent brand of basketball on the defensive end, things have been much more of a challenge on the other side. Offense doesn’t come easily to this group who was prioritized for their defensive abilities over their offensive skills and when you look at their losses in the SEC they have posted point totals of 51, 56, 68, and 65, often on low efficiencies, so you know where they are often letting games slip. Things can get pretty bogged down offensively with a slow moving and often predictable offense that is reliant on guards cutting extremely hard to create separation and it can be a difficult style to maintain with how much effort they are putting in on the defensive side of the floor. That isn’t to say that the Bulldogs can’t make things happen offensively at times–as shown with a strong scoring effort against Kentucky that led to a win based largely on the physicality of their guards. Georgia inverted their offense and posted up their 6’5” ball handlers and used them to create seals and post pins–and they could very well look to do that again against a shorter Florida backcourt. This is something that Florida’s coaching staff will likely have picked up in the scout and they should be prepared.
The SEC has shown repeatedly that there are no easy games and Florida just avoided a scare against South Carolina that should have them plenty focused going into a game with Georgia that could see them facing some of the same challenges that saw them struggle. The scrappy Gamecocks defense should have them prepared for what they’ll see with Georgia, but this could be a game that ends up being closer than what many will project.
Florida and Georgia will tip off Saturday, January 25th at 3:30 PM ET and it will be televised on SEC Network.