Last season the Florida Gators hit home runs with their transfer portal additions of Tyrese Samuel and Zyon Pullin. Unfortunately, both were graduate transfers meaning they were one-and-done in Gainesville, and as they move on to their professional careers they leave some large holes in production the team will now have to fill.
Just how to go about filling that production is a unique conversation. The easy way to look at it would be to simply look at how many points, rebounds, and assists they averaged, and see if you could “recreate it in the aggregate” (shoutout to any fans of the movie “Moneyball”). In the case of Pullin and Samuel, that would mean a combined:
29.4 Points
11.3 Rebounds
6.8 Assists
This makes the task of replacing their production seem somewhat less daunting when you simply put it that way. Yes, it’s a lot of points, rebounds, and assists–but you can talk yourself into Alijah Martin taking a good chunk of that production alongside the other incoming transfers, as well as internal development from young players chipping in to tackle the total.
It’s one way to look at it–but it’s a simple one.
The more accurate way of talking about how to replace their production is to not just look at their statistical contributions, but what they did on the floor in order to see functionally what needs to be replaced from a role standpoint. To do so we can look at Synergy Sports, a powerful analytics tool that can give us this type of data. Particularly, we want to look for play types where Pullin and Samuel played key roles and were particularly primary initiators as those are important roles for a team that will need to be replaced, as opposed to play finishing roles that can be replaced in a variety of ways.
Let’s start with Tyrese Samuel.
When you look at what Samuel did for the Gators it starts with how much he was used on the low block. Samuel logged 161 post up possessions last year, a huge number when you look at post players around the country–and this gives us a perfect discussion point to begin with. Post ups aren’t usually plays that end offensive possessions in late clock situations, they’re plays that happen early to kickstart the offense. Therefore–they are important plays to be able to replace, because we know the Gators are going to want to play two bigs and play power basketball. That means there will need to be players capable of absorbing roughly 161 post up possessions this year, and that’s going to likely start, and end, with Alex Condon. Condon was a solid post player as a freshman, something you don’t see often with young bigs. Not only did he have decent efficiency on the low block, but he was also a willing passer who could make the reads that Florida’s staff is looking for which could help the offense flow a bit more smoother than with Samuel who was a more talented scorer which meant the possession was probably going to end with one of his shots. When you look at Florida’s other incoming frontcourt players there isn’t a lot of post up ability. Reuben Chinyelu hardly posted up at all and hasn’t developed much game there yet, and while you hope in year two he’ll start to have some moves he’s probably not someone who can shoulder much offensive creation load at this point in his career. Sam Alexis was someone who posted up a bit, but it was largely to take advantage of switches against smaller players and not necessarily something he was doing against similarly sized players. When it comes to replacing Samuel’s post up production–it’s all going to be in the hands of Condon.
Samuel was also a key part of Florida’s pick and roll attack as a screener who could catch lobs above the rim, logging 72 possessions as a roller in pick and roll. This needs to be the area where Rueben Chinyelu has an impact, as right now his only real ability to make offensive contributions is skying above the rim and finishing alley oops. Florida will need to try to make this a key part of Chinyelu’s role, but it’s unlikely he’s going to have the same success as Samuel and likely won’t be logging the same amount of possessions.
It’s always difficult to replace the production of a veteran point guard and that will be no different with Zyon Pullin. When it comes to the role he played in the offense and what needs to be replaced, the obvious answer is the correct one–the pick and roll. Pick and roll action has become one of the most important elements of modern basketball, and Pullin ran most of them for the Gators last year.
Just how many, you might ask?
Pullin logged a remarkable 395 pick and rolls last season, over ten per game.
If Florida’s offense is going to operate in a similar way–they’ll need someone to take over those actions. Of course, the first name to come to mind is Walter Clayton, Florida’s best scorer and the starting point guard now that it was announced he’ll be making the change over from shooting guard.
Here’s the thing about Clayton taking over for Pullin as a pick and roll ball handler–Clayton already ran a ton of pick and rolls himself, totaling 240 last year. That means he’s going to be ready to take a bigger load–but that means his role as the secondary pick and roll ball handler needs to be replaced. The expectation will be that Alijah Martin will take on this position, but it’s something he has hardly done throughout his career at Florida Atlantic. Coming to Florida Martin is motivated to become more of a point guard and run things like pick and rolls, and while he will get those opportunities the fact that he hasn’t done it much in his career means that expectations shouldn’t be high for what he can bring Florida’s offense, at least during the first half of the season.
The sleeper pick for someone who can take a bigger load of the pick and rolls is Urban Klavzar, the Slovenian point guard coming to Florida after multiple seasons of high-level professional basketball in Europe. Klavzar is an elite ball handler and an electric scorer, and he can be a wizard in ball screens as shown overseas. Offensively, he is someone who could come into the SEC and immediately be one the best pick and roll operators in the league, but the question for him is whether or not he’ll be able to defend well enough to stay on the floor. If he is able to play a significant minute load, look for him to be a lethal pick and roll ball handler.
Klavzar is also elite in isolation, something the Gators also could use with Pullin out the door. When it came to late clock scenarios Pullin was often the guy the Gators would use as someone who could create his own shot better than anyone. Clayton also has those skills, but Klavzar might be even better suited with his slippery driving abilities and outstanding step back jumper.
Replacing great players is never easy, but as long as you are bringing in top talent it’s a problem you’re always going to face, and one that good programs can handle regularly. This will be a big test for Todd Golden and his staff, but he has players available who can likely do the job.