The last thing I wrote before last season started was a piece headlined, “Culture change will define Billy Napier’s 2023 season“. I didn’t know just how right I was at the time.
I opened it to re-read it before writing this newsletter with some trepidation, because I couldn’t remember whether I had made a prediction at the end. Thankfully, I did not. I left it an open question as to whether Napier’s culture change had fully taken or not, which is good because I didn’t have a way to know. I always like it when Past Me doesn’t get too far over his skis.
To summarize the piece, it basically said that the team culture was what would determine how the season would play out. UF was down in talent after the Mullen era, but in theory not dramatically so. By talent ratings, the Gators were lower than normal but not by a mile. The 2023 team was similarly placed in talent ratings: lower than you’d like, but not tremendously so.
The raw athletic talent and ability was there to have a good season. Yet, they did not have a good season. I am fairly convinced by now that it was problems within the team culture that tipped the scales in the wrong direction.
I’m going to try not to get out over my skis again, but I have definitely seen plenty from folks with inside sources that last year’s team wasn’t the best mix of people and personalities. I’m not going to throw any individual players under the bus, but anyone who’s reading this newsletter probably already knows at least one of the problem characters from 2023.
You don’t have to take my word for it. Derek Wingo appeared on Paul Finebaum’s show last week. If you’ve been in the GC Bull Gator Den recently, you probably saw the thread on it.
During the second half of that clip, Wingo says he thinks Napier finally has all the right pieces together after referencing both players and coaches coming and going. He talks about everyone now having pride in being at the University of Florida and also having pride in both winning and doing things the right way.
I hesitate to read too much into it, because it could just be a team leader reciting the company line. Earlier on in the clip, Finebaum mentions a discussion he had with Graham Mertz weeks ago where the quarterback also alluded to major changes having happened that the outside public couldn’t yet see. That, too, could be the same recitation that Wingo gives here.
That said, there probably is something to the idea that by now, no one is left on the team who doesn’t believe in Napier and his vision. There have been three winter portal cycles on Napier’s watch now, two of them after seasons with disappointing endings. If anyone is on the team but still not sold on Napier, then one wonders what exactly it is they’re doing. Especially now, since nearly all NCAA transfer restrictions are gone.
It is somewhat telling that Wingo mentions coaching turnover in a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it reference in a soliloquy. It’s unclear whether he’s referring to differences in coaching in terms of Dan Mullen and staff versus Napier and staff, or if it’s just this offseason’s changes. I think it’s the latter since Finebaum’s question was about the difference between last year and this year, but Wingo’s been around a while and I don’t want to put words in his mouth.
It is telling, though, that the results of 2023 led Napier to outright fire assistants for the first time in his six-year career as a head coach. That alone tells you things weren’t going smoothly within the staff.
The two who did get canned, Corey Raymond and Sean Spencer, were two of the bigger names on Napier’s initial staff. Raymond was the position coach most responsible for LSU’s claim to being “DBU”, and Spencer had a well regarded career at Penn State and in the NFL in his past.
There were some rumblings that Raymond in particular didn’t get along well with Austin Armstrong; I haven’t heard anything about Spencer and Armstrong specifically. Any time a new coordinator comes on board, there’s a chance he won’t perfectly gel with the position coaches. I can imagine there’s particular danger for that when there is such a temperament change as there was going from the soft spoken Patrick Toney to the fiery Armstrong. Toss in the fact that Armstrong wasn’t even 30 yet when hired, and you’ve got some real potential for friction with an experienced position coach.
I would also personally flag that the two play-calling DCs that Napier has hired have been very young for coordinators, and also that calling plays is but one part of the job. When you go from position coach to coordinator, you have to, y’know, coordinate all the efforts on your side of the ball. It requires organizational and leadership work that someone who’s 33 or 30-years-old may not be so good at doing yet.
Wingo made some complimentary comments about new co-DC Ron Roberts during spring, and Roberts himself gave this quote about his role: “I’m just happy to be here to have the opportunity to help in ways. That’s one thing you get with a chance to be older. You’ve seen some things. I’ve already made my mistakes, you know?” Toney and Armstrong are green enough that they haven’t made all their mistakes yet, and it showed.
Florida had some close losses last year, and it had a couple road games where they just didn’t play well from the start. Better culture — as manifested by better organization, effort, and consistency — may have resulted in some more wins last year. They had better have this piece figured out because there is no margin for error with the brutal schedule and the high pressure on Napier.