Currently on a run of seven wins in nine games the Florida Gators (20-8, 10-5 SEC) will get a chance to build on their NCAA Tournament resume on March 2nd in Columbia when they take on the surprise South Carolina Gamecocks (23-5, 11-4 SEC) who are #18 in the AP Poll. As it currently stands the Gators are in a comfortable spot NCAA Tournament-wise, currently holding the highest 7-seed according to Bracket Matrix. With South Carolina currently 47th in the NET and the game taking place on the road this will be a quadrant-1 opportunity for the Gators, something they need to continue to climb in seeding.
There are also some big implications when it comes to the SEC standings as it is crowded at the top. South Carolina is currently one game back of the lead while the Gators are two games back, and with Alabama currently holding a share of the lead and the Gators set to play them again there is an outside chance at the Gators finishing first or second if they continue to win games.
Head coach Lamont Paris has done a tremendous job this season with the Gamecocks, good enough to find himself in the conversation for not just SEC but National Coach Of The Year. This is his second year in Columbia, and things didn’t exactly go smoothly in year one. South Carolina finished 12th in the SEC with an 11-21 record, finishing 221st in KenPom. Losing some key production from that team and not bringing in any big-name transfers, the Gamecocks were picked to finish dead last in the preseason SEC poll. Paris and his South Carolina team took that as motivation and they have drastically overachieved expectations. They made it out of the non-conference portion of the schedule 12-1, though with a low strength of schedule a lot of people thought they weren’t actually that strong of a club. However, in SEC play they continued their winning ways knocking off Tennessee, Kentucky, and Mississippi State on their way to their current position of third in the SEC. According to Bracket Matrix they are only a 7-seed–largely due to the fact they didn’t have much meat on the bone in non-conference play. While they might not be in an outstanding seed position it’s a remarkable performance from a team that was expected to be in the basement of the SEC and a game that Florida expected before the season to not have a lot of value is now a quad-1 opportunity and a chance for the Gators to grab a quality win.
If you believe in predictive metrics such as KenPom, you’ll think the Gamecocks have largely outperformed their talent level. Despite being third in the SEC and a 7-seed in Bracket Matrix they are 46th in KenPom–much below the Gators who are 28th in KenPom despite being lower than the Gamecocks in the SEC. Considering their roster on paper isn’t loaded with talent you might consider that 46th might be where their talent level lies–while their 23-5 record on the season speaks to just how much they have come together as a team.
Playing team basketball and getting the absolute most of their talent has been the calling card for South Carolina. Five players average over 9 points per game and Meechie Johnson leads the way at only 13.8 per contest, less than what you generally see from a team’s leading scorer. This speaks to just how much they share the ball and rely on each other to score and it can make them a difficult team to defend. Playing extremely slowly (349th in the country in average possession length) the Gamecocks are comfortable using the entire shot clock, and they’re even willing to run sets late in the clock where most teams are desperate just to get into an isolation or pick and roll to get a shot up. Meechie Johnson, a 6’2” guard, does bring some ability to playmake in isolation when the time calls for it, but generally the Gamecocks prefer to move the ball even in late clock scenarios as opposed to letting one guy try to make something happen.
Playing through the post is something that South Carolina does more than anyone in the SEC and that starts with Wofford transfer BJ Mack. If that name sounds familiar to you the Gators did pursue Mack in the transfer portal at one point, but chose to go another direction. Florida wasn’t looking to be a post-up team and South Carolina was–and Mack definitely went to the place his skills would be most utilized. Mack tips the scales at 6’8” and 270 pounds and while that weight might hurt his mobility on the defensive end it helps him on the offensive side where he is a master at carving out space and using his tremendous balance to finish. Throughout the season Florida’s more thin frontcourt players have struggled with below-the-rim bangers and Mack might be as good as they have seen. Mack has great deception with his post up moves and can finish with either hand, and sometimes he doesn’t even need to use fancy moves–he can just use brute strength to accomplish what he needs to. Not just an inside threat, Mack also loves to shoot the three and has taken 129 shots from behind the arc this season hitting 41 of them for a respectable 32% average–though he has really cooled off as of late and is hitting only 30% in conference play. Everything South Carolina does starts out of the post and how the Gators choose to guard him will have big implications.
Another excellent piece of work from South Carolina’s staff was the evaluation and implementation of unheralded freshman forward Collin Murray-Boyles who has been steadily getting better at the forward position and is now in a place where he is starting every game and has scored 19 points against Auburn and 31 against Vanderbilt. A 6’7”, 230 pound specimen he is somewhat in the BJ Mack mold of thick below the rim forward but he has a bit more foot speed and can hang on the perimeter. With South Carolina being all about toughness, physicality, and defense, Murray-Boyles has been the perfect freshman for the Gamecocks and he could play a big role on Saturday.
One storyline to watch is the status of Myles Stute, a name you have heard a lot over the years as he was a key player at Vanderbilt the last three seasons before making the rare inter-conference transfer. Stute, a physical 6’6”, 210 pound wing has always been known for his tremendous defense in the SEC and it seemed like a perfect match for Lamont Paris and South Carolina. That has been the case with him playing an important role for the Gamecocks but a week ago he suffered a knee sprain and has missed the last two games and his status for the game against the Gators is uncertain. The injury is apparently not too serious, but they don’t want to rush him back, and with a position in the NCAA Tournament looking like a near-lock there is a chance they don’t take any chances. Stute’s defense on the wing and ability to play bully ball would be huge for the Gamecocks so whether or not he suits up will have a big impact on this game.
Defensively the Gamecocks are a strict man-to-man team who is yet to play more than a few possessions of zone this season–something the Gators will be happy to know after struggling against zones recently. The personality of their team starts with the defensive end which will be huge against the Gators who are all about playing fast and putting points on the board. Florida will try to make the game up-tempo while South Carolina will try to drag things into the mud, and whoever is able to dictate tempo will likely come away victorious. With both teams on the 7-seed line according to Bracket Matrix whoever wins could see a seedline bump, though luckily a loss wouldn’t hurt either team too badly.
Florida and Missouri play March 2nd at 12 PM ET and it will be televised on ESPN.