As it sits on January 17th, Florida’s season hasn’t exactly gone according to plan.
In non-conference play the Gators were able to avoid any landmines but they weren’t able to land any good wins with their biggest victory coming arguably against Michigan–a team with multiple mid-major losses who currently sits at 7-10 and well outside the NCAA Tournament picture. While the non-conference didn’t do the Gators any favors it certainly didn’t shoot themselves in the foot, and SEC play was an opportunity to finally put together some quality wins.
So far, that hasn’t been the case. Florida is 1-3 with two blowout losses and their single victory came against an Arkansas team in the midst of a tailspin, currently ranking 110th in the NET. This 1-3 record has them 10th in the current SEC standings.
Florida now sits at 11-6 without any quality wins and their metrics, while not bad–are not all that good either. They’re 55th in the NET, the NCAA’s official sorting tool, and they’re 45th in KenPom which is seen as the best metric for evaluating the quality of a team (and also a pivotal ranking in the eyes of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee). On Bracket Matrix, a composite of the 68 most accurate bracketologists– the Gators were the 10th team out as of four days ago– prior to the blowout loss against Tennessee. However you want to slice it, the first half of the season has not gone well for the Gators but there are a lot of opportunities remaining to right the ship and the only question now is whether they will or not.
If you’re looking for reasons to be negative about the rest of the season, they’re not hard to find. Florida has struggled to find an identity on either side of the ball and their inability to beat good teams isn’t unique to this season–it was the identical case last season.
However, if you’re looking for positivity to as to why the Gators could turn the season around and stack wins that get them back in the NCAA Tournament picture there is a rather large reason for hope:
The SEC’s unbalanced schedule.
Because of the league having 14 teams it’s not possible for every team to play each opponent twice as teams with 10 teams often do. That means every schedule is unique, and more importantly–some schedules are much, much easier than others.
Ben Brandon, an excellent SEC basketball writer, took on the task of evaluating each SEC team’s schedule to find out who had the hardest schedule and who had the weakest. To do so he used analytic tools KenPom, Haslametrics, Torvik, and EvanMiya which all weigh for quality of competition as well as accounting for what games are at home and which are on the road.
After the exhaustive study, this is a ranking of difficulty of schedules going from most difficult to least difficult:
1) Vanderbilt
2) Missouri
3) Alabama
4) Texas A&M
5) Mississippi State
6) Ole Miss
7) Georgia
8) Tennessee
9) LSU
10) Kentucky
11) South Carolina
12) Arkansas
13) Auburn
14) Florida
As you see–Florida’s SEC schedule is the easiest in the league and they got extremely lucky with how the unbalanced schedule shook out.
The teams that Florida plays twice this season are Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Alabama.
Two of those opponents are certainly challenging with Kentucky (19th in KenPom) and Alabama (7th in KenPom). However, Florida got quite lucky with the other opponents they’ll see twice. Missouri is 106th in KenPom and is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country–something the Gators have feasted on. Vanderbilt is 189th in the country in KenPom, and Georgia comes in at 67th. Florida gets some of the more beatable teams in the SEC twice–giving them more win opportunities than most other teams in the league are getting.
That’s not the only place the Gators got lucky. Two of the top performing teams in the league have been Auburn (5th in KenPom), and Mississippi State (26th in KenPom). Florida only sees those teams once each, and where will those games be played, you might ask?
Gainesville.
Whether it’s seeing lower level SEC teams twice or getting some of the best teams in the league at home, you can start to see how things shake out pretty well for the Gators. Despite playing poorly to start the season and already falling to 1-3 in league play, KenPom still predicts the Gators to finish 9-9 in the league play and if the Gators can do that and then win some games in the SEC Tournament they could start to have something cooking. More accurately though–Florida is probably going to have to hold serve in the games they should win and then win a game or two they shouldn’t–and that could be what gets them back in the picture. Florida is currently projected to lose to Auburn at home–and that could be a game in front of the home crowd that the Gators flip. They’re also predicted to lose on the road at South Carolina and while the Gamecocks have been solid to start the season they’re certainly not a juggernaut. Win those two games plus the games the Gators are favored in and they could go 10-8 in the league and then have opportunities in the SEC Tournament which could be make or break for them to be an at-large team.
One of the things the Gators would still have to avoid are the blowout losses. When the Gators took on Tennessee in Knoxville they were expected to lose–and no harm would be done in the metrics if it was an 8-point loss. However, these blowout losses kill a team’s efficiency metrics which factor into the NET which can contribute to falling in those rankings.
Florida got dealt a fantastic hand with the SEC schedule this year and it has given them a chance to still have some life after a rough start to the season. Of course, it’s still no cupcake schedule and every game in the league is difficult–but if you’re looking for hope as to how the season could turn around there are going to be opportunities.
On the flip side of things–now that we know just how easy Florida’s schedule is, if they perform poorly there is going to be a deserved level of criticism. Things broke perfectly for the Gators in terms of having the easiest quality of competition in league play so if they’re not able to win games and finish near the top of the league with that huge advantage–what happens next year if they have one of the hardest schedules?
Right now the Gators have a lifeline to put the past behind them and take care of business in games they will be favored to win, and it all starts on Saturday when the Gators take on Missouri. According to KenPom, Florida is favored to win 81-78.