For the Gators (10-4, 0-1 SEC) to reach their goals in the SEC they’ll need to take care of business against teams projected to finish below them in the standings and they’ll get that opportunity on January 10 when they take on the Ole Miss Rebels (13-1, 0-1 SEC).
Saturday saw the Gators let victory slide through their fingers against Kentucky but they played a competitive one-possession game against a team currently ranked #6 in the AP Poll and they will have some confidence going up against Ole Miss who has an excellent record but one that may have been boosted due to a low quality of competition.
Chris Beard is in his first year as head coach with the Rebels and chose to play a relatively easy non-conference schedule and things went exactly to plan as they rolled through it going 13-0. While it might not have been a particularly challenging schedule relative to what SEC teams are generally playing it wasn’t completely without its tests. The Rebels were able to get wins over NC State, Memphis, and UCF, and while all three currently stand as quad-2 games, one or two could easily mature into quad-1 wins as these team’s metrics are boosted through conference play.
Ole Miss also got a huge boost when it was announced that the NCAA would be allowing two-time transfers to be eligible immediately. Chris Beard took two players in Brandon Murray (Georgetown) and Moussa Cisse (Oklahoma State) who were transferring for the second time with no real case for a waiver, banking on the fact that the NCAA’s restriction on transfers would crumble. It did, and now the Rebels have a huge boost on both the perimeter and inside. Murray is a physical wing who started his career at LSU before going to Georgetown and while he hasn’t been a part of much winning at his two previous spots he knows how to go get a bucket when his team needs it. Cisse is a monster 7-footer at center who knows his role and doesn’t play outside of it–he knows he is there to be physical, to rebound, and to defend, and he takes pride in those areas without needing to take many shots on offense.
Given the 13-0 start there were some people questioning if the Rebels were for real, but that narrative took a bit of a hit in their SEC opener. Playing a talented Tennessee team, Ole Miss was blitzed from the opponent tip and quickly fell behind by double digits and the Volunteers coasted to a 90-64 win. There aren’t NCAA Tournament expectations for Ole Miss in year one but the Rebels would love to prove people wrong and get there–and if they’re going to do so they’ll need to take care of teams like Florida.
So far this season a lot of the Rebels’ success has come from their efficiency on the offensive side of the floor. Ole Miss plays a methodical offensive style with a lot of movement and equal opportunity for their players to score and it has worn down opponents into allowing decent shots. When the Rebels have got those shots–they’ve hit them at a high rate. Entering Wednesday’s game Ole Miss is 8th in the country in three-point percentage at 40.2% and the Gators will once again have to focus on defending the three-point line after doing so against Kentucky who was 2nd in the country. Florida had success doing so which should be encouraging as they prepare to take on Ole Miss. Jaylen Murrary (46%), Matthew Murrell (39%), TJ Caldwell (41%), and Jaemyn Brakefield (39%) are all excellent long ball shooters the Gators will need to lock in on which can be made difficult by the way Ole Miss plays. Despite the high percentage from three the Rebels don’t shoot a lot of them as they prefer to put constant pressure on the rim and only take threes when they are wide open. They will pass up good shots for great shots, so the Gators will have to defend them differently than Kentucky where they had to be aware of players that were willing to pull from range the moment there was any glimmer of opportunity.
Due to the nature of Ole Miss’ unselfish offense there are three players that have really jumped out as offensive leaders, starting with 6’4” guard Matthew Murrell. Murrell is entering his 4th year at Ole Miss and he has made improvements to his game every single year. As a freshman he was largely a defensive energy guy, as a sophomore he improved his offensive game but was known as a streaky scorer, as a junior he became a consistent scorer, and now as senior he’s an efficient offensive leader who also can orchestrate the offense. He’s averaging 16.4 points and 2.8 assists per game and he is arguably the most dangerous downhill player on the Rebels who can put a lot of pressure on the rim with his explosiveness. Though somewhat of a streaky shooter throughout his career, he has been excellent so far this season hitting 39% from deep which makes him even more dangerous.
Another familiar SEC name will be Allen Flanigan who is in his 5th year in the league though his first at Ole Miss. Flanigan played his first four years at Auburn and was a trusted do-it-all wing and it was a bit of a surprise when he entered the transfer portal and ended up with another team in the league. Known for his toughness Flanigan has always been a player who could guard the opposing team’s best perimeter player or slide to the power forward spot and bang down low and he endeared himself to Auburn fans who saw him as a workhorse. Now at Ole Miss he is still the same defensive player but he has added a lot more offensive touch particularly in transition and as a cutter. Averaging 16.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game Flanigan has been outstanding and he’s as important a player as there is on the Ole Miss roster.
Starting at point guard and setting the table offensively has been Jaylen Murray, a Saint Peter’s transfer who was on the team that upset Purdue in the NCAA Tournament two years ago. He was only a freshman on that team that didn’t play a ton, but the 5’11” guard followed up the upset over Purdue with a big sophomore season which allowed him to make the jump in the transfer portal to the SEC. Murray is undersized but he’s slippery and tough to guard, and the 46% he’s shooting from three right now has made opponents hug up on him which makes his driving ability even more noticeable. In Ole Miss’ rough game against Tennessee Murray had 11 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists going up against one of the best small guards in the country in Zakai Zeigler, so you know he’s a competitor who wants to prove himself in one of the best leagues in the country.
Offense has powered the Rebels so far this season but they have shown some issues on the defensive end where they currently rank 130 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The Rebels have physicality on the wing but not necessarily athleticism, and they also put a lot of eggs in the basket of a bit of a unique player at the center position who has shown the ability to dominate the paint but has struggled anywhere outside of it. That would be Jamarion Sharp, who, if you didn’t know–stands at 7’5”. Florida actually had interest in Sharp when he was in the transfer portal (perhaps laying the breadcrumbs for when they got the commitment from 7’7” 2024 center Olivier Rioux) but he ended up at Ole Miss. Before Moussa Cisse got eligible Sharp had to play a ton and while he can block everything at the rim–mobility isn’t exactly a strength out on the perimeter.
Despite having a 7’5” center the Rebels have also struggled when it comes to rebounding ranking 318th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. This number is particularly shocking due to the easy schedule the Rebels have played, and it means Florida’s offensive rebounders should be seeing blood in the water. Moussa Cisse was a tremendous defensive rebounder at Oklahoma State and has helped in that area but still the Rebels have struggled to secure boards and it’s an area the Gators could have a huge advantage.
This is a big game for Florida as they’ll look to avoid falling to 0-2. It’s not going to be an easy game whatsoever for the Gators but it’s still a game they’re projected to win and those are the games Florida needs if they’re going to finish where they want to in the SEC standings and with an NCAA Tournament-worthy resume.
Florida and Ole Miss will tip off at 9 PM ET (make note of the late tip!) on January 10th. It will be televised on SEC Network.